SAMA raises interest rates following US Fed’s move

SAMA raises interest rates following US Fed’s move
The bank raised its repurchase agreement rate by 25 basis points to 5.75 percent (Shutterstock)
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Updated 05 May 2023
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SAMA raises interest rates following US Fed’s move

SAMA raises interest rates following US Fed’s move

RIYADH: The Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, has raised its main interest rate by 25 basis points in line with the US Federal Reserve as it seeks to try to counter inflation.

The bank raised its repurchase agreement rate by 25 bps to 5.75 percent, and the rate of reverse repurchase agreement by 25 bps to 5.25 percent.

The move followed the Fed increasing US interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, the 10th consecutive rise since March 2022. 

Most central banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council track the Fed’s policy rate moves as their currencies are pegged to the US dollar, so the announcement from SAMA was immediate. 

The Central Bank of the UAE raised its base rate on overnight deposits by 25 bps to 5.15 percent effective from Thursday, the state news agency WAM said. 

Central Bank of Bahrain also lifted its key interest rates by 25 bps. Its one-week deposit facility rate was raised from 5.75 percent to 6 percent and the overnight deposit rate to 5.75 percent.  

The four-week deposit rate was increased to 6.75 percent, a statement from the bank said. 

Qatar Central Bank also increased the lending and deposit rates by 25 bps to 6 percent and 5.50 percent. In addition, the monetary authority  hiked the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.70 percent. 

The repo rate is the rate at which the central bank gives loans to commercial banks against securities, while the reverse repo is the rate at which the commercial banks lend money to the central bank. 

The Fed’s quarter-point interest rate hike follows months of larger increases, with a rise of 25 bps in February, 50 bps in December, and 75 bps in November, September, July and June. 

Rising interest rates increase the cost of borrowing for consumers, leading to more expensive mortgage bills and loan repayments — something that can lead to reduced spending on other items as people seek to cut outgoings.

However, savers benefit from the interest rates rise, with money stored away gaining a greater return. Yet, with inflation across the globe still running hot, any extra interest gained by savings is lower than the rising cost of goods and services.


Global Markets – world stocks nudge up, bonds rally in bright end to grim quarter

Global Markets – world stocks nudge up, bonds rally in bright end to grim quarter
Updated 10 sec ago
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Global Markets – world stocks nudge up, bonds rally in bright end to grim quarter

Global Markets – world stocks nudge up, bonds rally in bright end to grim quarter

LONDON: World shares nudged higher on Friday, while better-than-expected euro zone inflation data boosted government bonds, with both asset classes still set for their worst quarter in a year in response to central banks’ pledge to keep interest rates high, according to Reuters.

MSCI’s broad index of global stocks gained 0.4 percent on Friday, while European and US government bonds rallied strongly to reflect markets resetting interest rate bets.

In a surprise bout of good news for hawkish central banks, data showed headline inflation in the euro area rose 4.3 percent in September year-on-year, below economists’ forecasts for a 4.5 percent rise and its lowest in two years.

The yield on Germany’s two-year bond, which tracks rate expectations and falls as the price of the debt rises, dropped 7 basis points to 3.23 percent.

Germany’s 10-year government bond yield fell 12 bps to 2.848 percent, with the euro area debt benchmark heading for its best trading day in more than a month.

And with strong sentiment flowing across the Atlantic, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell 6 bps to 4.6 percent.

That provided a bright end to a torrid quarter for government bonds. Germany’s 10-year yield has shot up 45 bps this quarter, reflecting the worst three-month sell-off since the third quarter of 2022.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury is up 72 bps since July, also its worst quarterly performance since the same quarter last year.

The debt market relief came as some analysts argued bonds had become too beaten up in recent months.

The European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve have signaled that the best investors could hope for, following their sharpest monetary tightening cycle in decades, was a long period of interest rates staying where they are.

“Yields are way too high and will move lower but we’re in that gap between now and when that happens,” said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities in London.

Strategists at Barclays pointed out in a note to clients, however, that because stock valuations fall when the income yields on lower-risk bonds rise, “if the bond market were to turn more disorderly, equities are unlikely to be immune.”

Elsewhere in markets, Europe’s Stoxx 600 share index jumped 1 percent and Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.8 percent.

Futures contracts that track the performance of Wall Street’s S&P 500 share index indicated the blue-chip equity benchmark would open 0.5 percent higher later on.

In currencies, the euro added 0.5 percent against the dollar.

Sterling rose 0.4 percent after a revision of official data on Friday showed Britain’s economic performance since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic was stronger than previously thought.

Later on Friday, the latest release of the US personal consumption expenditures price index will provide a fuller picture of inflationary trends in the world’s largest economy.

Investors will also turn their attention to Washington, where the Democratic-led US Senate forged ahead on Thursday with a bipartisan stopgap funding bill aimed at averting a fourth partial government shutdown in a decade.

“People are getting used to partial shutdowns but if it is prolonged and the stakes are raised then the economic consequences start to mount,” said Nordea chief markets strategist Jan von Gerich, adding that the dollar could be hurt if no agreement is reached.

The dollar index eased 0.5 percent to 105.69 but hovered near 10-month highs of 106.84 touched earlier this week.

In Asia, the Japanese yen was at 149.08 per dollar, a slight respite from recent falls that have put markets on alert for potential currency intervention.

MSCI’s index of Asian stocks outside Japan rose 1.2 percent on Friday, with Chinese markets closed for a holiday.

Oil prices regained ground after a brief pause in a rally as traders weighed expectations of supply increases by Russia and Saudi Arabia versus forecasts of positive demand from China during its Golden Week holiday.

US crude rose 0.5 percent to $92.16 per barrel and Brent was at $95.75, up 0.4 percent on the day.
 


Saudi businesses expect low levels of security threats in 2024: report

Saudi businesses expect low levels of security threats in 2024: report
Updated 29 September 2023
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Saudi businesses expect low levels of security threats in 2024: report

Saudi businesses expect low levels of security threats in 2024: report

RIYADH: Driven by the increased use of advanced technologies, most large companies in Saudi Arabia expect low levels of security threats in 2024, a threat assessment investigation has revealed.  

According to the World Security Report released by London-based global security firm G4S, the Kingdom is consolidating its position as one of the best countries in the region to do business, thanks to its widespread adoption of advanced technology.  

“The government’s measures to stamp down on cybercrime, along with its substantial investments in advanced technologies and digital upskilling in the context of Saudi Vision 2030, make the country an attractive hub for businesses,” said Mahmoud Mudhaffar, managing director of G4S in Saudi Arabia,  in a statement.  

The study found that the Kingdom had the lowest intrusion and competitor sabotage rates at 11 percent and 13 percent, respectively.  

Last year, Saudi Arabia experienced lower levels of external threats related to vandalism, trespass and distributed denial of service attacks compared with the global average, the report added. 

A DDoS attack is a cybercrime that involves multiple machines working together to overwhelm a target with internet traffic. 

The report surveyed 1,775 chief security officers of large organizations across 30 countries, including 235 CSOs in the Middle East from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. 

The research revealed that companies in the Middle East faced the least security threats involving violent criminals at 19 percent.  

CSOs who participated in the survey opined that Saudi Arabia plans to increase its use of technologies like artificial intelligence, facial recognition and machine learning.  

“In particular, it appears to be embracing the use of AI. Saudi Arabia is the second highest country in the region behind Jordan to say it will adopt AI-powered surveillance and monitoring systems at 46 percent,” said G4S in the report.  

The Kingdom is also the second-highest country in the region to expect to use biometrics and facial recognition technology behind the UAE at 49 percent over the next five years.  

Similarly, at 44 percent, more companies in the Kingdom plan to use internet-connected technologies and connected devices compared to any other country in the region. 


Oil Updates – crude set for 2% weekly gain on China holiday demand, tight US supply

Oil Updates – crude set for 2% weekly gain on China holiday demand, tight US supply
Updated 29 September 2023
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Oil Updates – crude set for 2% weekly gain on China holiday demand, tight US supply

Oil Updates – crude set for 2% weekly gain on China holiday demand, tight US supply

LONDON: Oil prices were set for a weekly gain of around 2 percent after regaining ground on Friday amid strong holiday demand from China and persistently tight US fundamentals.

Brent November futures which expire on Friday rose 5 cents to $95.43 per barrel. Brent December futures gained 13 cents to trade at $93.23 per barrel at 6:35 a.m. GMT.

US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 16 cents to $91.87 per barrel.

The market eased about 1 percent in the previous session, as traders took profits after prices soared to 10-month highs, and some worried that high interest rates may weigh on oil demand.

Improving macroeconomic data from China, the world’s largest oil importer, coupled with strong fuel demand as the country as it embarked on its week-long Golden Week holiday on Friday, supported prices.

“(An) increase in international travel during the Golden Week holiday is boosting Chinese oil demand,” ANZ analysts said in a client note.

Domestic travel is also expected to boost demand, with data from flight app Umetrip showing the average number of daily flights booked is a fifth higher than for Golden Week in 2019, before the COVID-19 outbreak.

China’s factory activity likely steadied in September, a Reuters poll showed, adding to a run of indicators suggesting the world’s second-largest economy has begun to stabilize which could bolster demand further. Official data is due on Saturday.

The US economy maintained a fairly solid pace of growth in the second quarter and activity appears to have accelerated this quarter, data showed on Thursday, indicating that strong fuel demand could remain.

A backdrop of tight supplies in the US provided further price support, with storage at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the country’s crude futures, already at their lowest since July 2022.

Traders are awaiting next week’s meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, scheduled for Oct. 4.

“Next week’s OPEC meeting will be a key update for the market with increasing probability the voluntary supply cuts by Aramco are reduced,” said National Australia Bank analysts in a client note. 


‘Place the burden’ on wealthy segments of society, IMF tells Pakistan

‘Place the burden’ on wealthy segments of society, IMF tells Pakistan
Updated 29 September 2023
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‘Place the burden’ on wealthy segments of society, IMF tells Pakistan

‘Place the burden’ on wealthy segments of society, IMF tells Pakistan
  • Pakistan and IMF struck $3 billion bailout deal earlier this year
  • Reforms linked to bailout have already fueled annual inflation

KARACHI: Pakistan needs to “place the burden” on wealthy segments of society and ensure that the rich pay taxes and the poor are protected, an IMF spokeswoman said in a press briefing on Thursday.

The International Monetary Fund and Pakistan struck a staff-level agreement for the provision on $3 billion in bailout funds under a stand-by arrangement (SBA) earlier this year, giving the South Asian economy a much-awaited respite as it teetered on the brink of default.

Reforms linked to the bailout, including an easing of import restrictions and a demand that subsidies be removed, have already fueled annual inflation, which rose to a record 38.0 percent in May. Interest rates have also risen, and the rupee hit all-time lows. Last month the currency fell 6.2 percent though it has sharply recovered in September amid a crackdown on illegal foreign exchange trade in grey and black markets by security agencies.

The August data from Pakistan’s statistics bureau showed a slight easing from July’s 28.3 percent inflation rate, but food inflation remained elevated at 38.5 percent.

“Place the burden on the wealthy segments of society. It’s important … that the rich pay their taxes, tax to GDP ratio in Pakistan is very, very low and that the poor are protected in society. The poor and the vulnerable members of society are protected,” IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack told reporters in Washington, when asked about IMF reforms linked to the bailout.

She said the objectives of the program were to “provide a policy anchor” to Pakistan to address domestic and external imbalances and a framework for financial support from other donors, multilateral and bilateral partners, including fresh financing and rollovers of debt coming due.

“Policy efforts center on the implementation of the fiscal year 2024 budget, appropriate monetary policy aimed at bringing inflation down, and continued reforms to improve the viability of the energy sector,” Kozack said.

“All of these reforms are ultimately aimed at paving the way for higher, more inclusive and more resilient growth. To support social development and climate resilience, the program envisages plans to strengthen public financial management, tax administration efforts, and to better prioritize public investment. And all of this is being done with support from partners including not only the IMF but also the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.”


FX clampdown boosts Pakistani rupee 6.1 percent to become September’s top currency

FX clampdown boosts Pakistani rupee 6.1 percent to become September’s top currency
Updated 29 September 2023
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FX clampdown boosts Pakistani rupee 6.1 percent to become September’s top currency

FX clampdown boosts Pakistani rupee 6.1 percent to become September’s top currency
  • September’s gains have almost made up for all of the rupee’s losses in August
  • Gains technically make rupee the best-performing currency in the world this month

KARACHI: Pakistan’s rupee has gained 6.1 percent against the dollar so far in September, following an official clampdown on illegal foreign exchange trade in grey and black markets by security agencies.

September’s gains have almost made up for all of the rupee’s losses in August and technically make it the best-performing currency in the world this month. The rupee hit a record low of 307.1 against the dollar on Sept. 5 but has made a sharp recovery since the country’s financial regulator and security agencies began taking action the next day to curb black market operations.

The Pakistani rupee closed 0.3 percent up in the interbank market at 287.8 per dollar on Thursday.

The crackdown on black market operators against the informal market resulted in tens of millions of dollars pouring back into Pakistan’s interbank and open markets, dealers said.

“The government’s stern administrative action against the unlawful foreign exchange dealers and hoarders in commodity markets is stabilizing the exchange rate, providing a respite to the imported inflation and easing out commodity prices,” the Finance Ministry said in its monthly report.

“The rupee has indeed performed well but this data does not reflect the sharp depreciation preceding this performance. Pakistan’s currency has been one of the worst-performing in recent years,” said Fahad Rauf, Head of Research at Ismail Iqbal Securities.

A market-determined exchange rate is a key condition for Pakistan receiving a $3 billion bailout loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that was agreed in July to help avert a sovereign default.

Rauf added that the recent performance of the rupee is more of a recovery than an actual out-performance. He said the reserves situation is still far from comfortable.

On Thursday, Pakistan’s reserves clocked in at $7.637 billion, enough for less than two months’ worth of imports.

The report added that inflation is anticipated to remain high in the coming month, hovering around 29-31 percent due to an upward adjustment in energy tariffs and a major increase in fuel prices.