Turkiye’s foreign policy under scrutiny as Erdogan takes power

Analysis In this file photo taken on March 05, 2020 Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan shake hands at the end of a joint press statement following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow. (AFP)
In this file photo taken on March 05, 2020 Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan shake hands at the end of a joint press statement following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow. (AFP)
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Updated 29 May 2023
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Turkiye’s foreign policy under scrutiny as Erdogan takes power

Turkiye’s foreign policy under scrutiny as Erdogan takes power
  • President has to navigate US push for Russia sanctions, NATO enlargement, say analysts
  • Energy, arms deals, immigration likely to be govt’s key focus

ANKARA: It is perhaps no secret in which direction Turkiye’s foreign policy will be moving with the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan winning another five-year term this past Sunday – which means a continuation of strategies the long-serving leader has championed in the past.

According to Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, Ankara office director of the German Marshall Fund of the US, Erdogan’s main priority would be to ensure the continued flow of much-needed cash from Russia and Gulf countries, while avoiding friction with Europe and the US so that he can attract investments from the West.

“While Turkiye’s relations with neither Europe nor the US can be expected to be put back on track, they can at least be stabilized as both Erdogan and his Western counterparts would benefit from this,” he told Arab News recently.

“The congratulatory messages from Europe and the United States suggest that this is also the tendency in the West.”

President Joe Biden congratulated Erdogan on his reelection, and tweeted: “I look forward to continuing to work together as NATO Allies on bilateral issues and shared global challenges.”

For Unluhisarcikli, Erdogan will also need to make tough decisions early on in his third term as president.

“The US, which has shown restraint so far due to the elections in Turkiye will press its points on Russia sanctions and NATO enlargement more strongly in the period ahead. Erdogan’s decisions on these issues and developments in the US about Turkiye’s request to purchase new F-16s could pivot the Turkiye-US relationship in any direction,” he said.

The administration of Donald Trump removed Turkiye from the F-35 fifth-generation jet program in 2019 over its acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile system.

Experts also underline that with Erdogan winning, Turkiye will continue its recent efforts to repatriate hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees to zones under Turkish control in compliance with international law.

Although being met with suspicion by Washington, the normalization efforts with Syria’s President Bashar Assad are also expected to continue as Erdogan, and his new ultranationalist and anti-immigrant allies in the parliament, consider the restored ties with Syria as the only solution to send back Syrian refugees in Turkiye to their homeland.

Erdogan’s new ally, Sinan Ogan, who ran as the third presidential candidate in the first elections, then endorsed Erdogan’s candidacy in the runoff, said during his campaign that he would consider repatriating refugees by force if necessary.  

Karol Wasilewski, an analyst for 4CF The Futures Literacy Company and a founder of Krakow-based Institute for Turkiye Studies, expects continuity in Turkish diplomacy and decision-making in the short run, on the economy and foreign policy.

“Erdogan would, most likely, continue his ambiguous foreign policy in which Turkiye, on the one hand, gives its Western allies arguments that it still can be considered an ally — that’s why I won’t be surprised if Erdogan finally agrees on Sweden’s membership — while, on the other, decisively pushes for its interests, even when it harms NATO internal cohesion,” he told Arab News.

Following the support he received in Sunday’s elections, and having regained flexibility for his political and diplomatic maneuvers, Erdogan is also expected to make some U-turns without risking any major backlash from his constituency.

While Sweden’s accession bid has yet to be approved by Ankara, Stockholm’s membership — which has long been rejected by Erdogan, who accused the country of harboring terrorists — may also be used as a trump card for securing a commitment from the US for F-16 fighter jets ahead of NATO’s next summit this July when Erdogan and Biden are expected to meet.

The admission of Sweden by Turkiye would help the US administration in pushing for F-16 sales through Congress.

But Erdogan’s uneasiness with the US support for Syrian Kurdish militia — People’s Protection Units or YPG — is unlikely to change under his third term as his government considers the YPG as an extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party in Turkiye.

On Friday, Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said that after the elections, “whoever pursues a pro-American policy in Turkiye will be labeled a traitor,” hinting at a possible transactional relationship with Washington in the post-elections period.

For Wasilewski, Erdogan’s win may serve as another chance for Euro-Asianist segments in Turkiye to strengthen themselves in the security apparatus.

“In (a) five-year perspective, this may be something that would cast (an) even bigger shadow over Turkiye’s relationship with the West,” he said.

Another dimension of the post-election process would be the Western allies’ position toward Turkiye now that the election dust has settled.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the US decided to increase pressure on Turkiye on areas that seems vital to their interests, such as sanctions on Russia,” he said.

“The way that Erdogan responds to this possible pressure will be one (other) factor determining Turkiye’s relations with the West,” he added.

In terms of Turkish-Russian relations, Ankara is expected to continue its current political and economic relations with the Kremlin as well as deepen its cooperation in the energy field, with the help of the personal rapport between the two leaders.

Close ties with Russia as well as the Gulf will also help Erdogan in achieving his goal of rendering the Turkish economy more independent from Western markets. Ankara has not joined Western sanctions against Russia, but continues to provide military support to Kyiv.

Turkiye’s $20 billion first nuclear power plant, that will be owned for the first 25 years by the manufacturer, Russian energy company Rosatom, was recently inaugurated in a virtual ceremony. And being the largest nuclear construction project in the world, Russian leader Vladimir Putin said the plant deepened Turkish-Russian ties.

Russia also delayed a portion of Turkiye’s natural gas payments in early May ahead of the general elections.

Attracting high numbers of tourists from Russia are also required to help the Turkish economy keep afloat during summertime, while Erdogan will also remain in campaign mode before Turkiye’s next polls, the municipal elections scheduled for March next year.

“Putin is well aware that close ties between Russia and Turkiye are vital to his interests, especially after Russian aggression on Ukraine, and will continue to put a great effort to preserve them in a good shape,” said Wasilewski.

“Feeding Turkiye’s dreams of being the gas hub serves Erdogan’s narrative of Turkiye as a great power,” said Wasilewski.

 


Emirati and Malaysian trade ministers discuss boosting economic ties

Emirati and Malaysian trade ministers discuss boosting economic ties
Updated 28 September 2023
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Emirati and Malaysian trade ministers discuss boosting economic ties

Emirati and Malaysian trade ministers discuss boosting economic ties
  • Officials reviewed status of negotiations for a UAE-Malaysia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement
  • UAE is Malaysia’s second-largest commercial partner in the Middle East

LONDON: Thani Al-Zeyoudi, the Emirati minister of state for foreign trade, and Tengku Zafrul Aziz, the Malaysian minister of investment, trade and industry, discussed ways boost trade and investment ties between their countries. Their meeting took place during a visit to the UAE by a delegation of senior trade officials from Malaysia.

During the talks, Al-Zeyoudi praised the existing strong relations between the nations and reaffirmed the UAE’s commitment to expanding the opportunities available to the business communities in both, the Emirates News Agency reported on Thursday.

They also reviewed the status of negotiations to develop a UAE-Malaysia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. The meeting was the second between the ministers since discussions about the agreement began during a visit by Abu Dhabi’s crown prince, Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammed, to Kuala Lumpur in May.

Their first meeting took place in Jakarta during the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Business and Investment Summit in early September, and the talks reflect the UAE’s desire to strengthen its ties with Malaysia and the wider ASEAN bloc, officials said.

“Malaysia is a valued partner for the UAE in an increasingly important region, one which shares our vision of leveraging global trade to accelerate growth and diversify the economy,” Al-Zeyoudi said.

“Malaysia’s support for open, rules-based trade, transparent dispute-resolution mechanisms and a greater voice for the developing world in trade policy will help deliver a conference of lasting impact,” he added.

Tengku Zafrul said: “We are keen to bolster our ties with the UAE, a nation that continues to gain importance as a strategic trading partner for Malaysia.

“Situated at the crossroads between East and West, the UAE offers immense opportunities for our exporters and their efforts to expand into global markets.”

The ministers commended recent growth in non-oil bilateral trade, which reached a total value of more than $2.226 billion during the first half of 2023. They also expressed the aim of increasing foreign direct investment.

The UAE is Malaysia’s second-largest commercial partner in the Middle East, accounting for 32 percent of its total trade with Arab countries.


 

 

 


US imposes fresh round of sanctions over instability in Sudan

US imposes fresh round of sanctions over instability in Sudan
Updated 28 September 2023
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US imposes fresh round of sanctions over instability in Sudan

US imposes fresh round of sanctions over instability in Sudan
  • Sanctions target former Sudanese official and two companies, including one based in Russia

WASHINGTON: The United States on Thursday imposed sanctions on a former Sudanese official and two companies, including one based in Russia, that it accused of exacerbating instability in Sudan as fighting has killed thousands and displaced millions of civilians.
The action is the latest round of sanctions imposed by Washington after war between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) broke out in mid-April over plans for a political transition and the integration of the RSF into the army, four years after long-time ruler Omar Al-Bashir was overthrown in a popular uprising.
“Today’s action holds accountable those who have undercut efforts to find a peaceful, democratic solution in Sudan,” the Treasury Department’s Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Brian Nelson, said in a statement.
“We will continue to target actors perpetuating this conflict for personal gain.”
The Treasury said it targeted Ali Karti, the foreign minister under Bashir, and became leader of the Sudanese Islamic Movement after Bashir was toppled in 2019.
He is a prominent figure among loyalists and veterans of Bashir’s rule who have maneuvered to protect their interests and regained some leverage after a 2021 coup by the army and the RSF.
Also hit with sanctions was GSK Advance Company, a Sudan-based company the Treasury said has been used as a procurement channel for the RSF.
GSK worked with Russia-based military supply company Aviatrade, also targeted on Thursday, to arrange the procurement of parts and supplies, as well as training, for drones previously purchased by the RSF, the Treasury said.


Syrian beekeepers battle both war and climate change

Syrian beekeepers battle both war and climate change
Updated 28 September 2023
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Syrian beekeepers battle both war and climate change

Syrian beekeepers battle both war and climate change
  • Rankus was once renowned for its honey, but was hard hit by fighting between government forces and rebels
  • Damiriya can barely afford to tend to his hives, donated by the International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC) to help Syrian beekeepers

RANKUS, Syria: Syrian beekeeper Ibrahim Damiriya struggles to produce honey from his hives on parched land near the capital Damascus after years of war, economic collapse and worsening climate change impacts.
“The war bled us dry. We could barely keep our beekeeping business afloat, and then the insane weather made things worse,” the 62-year-old in a beekeeping suit told AFP as he examined meagre honey stocks inside the hives.
Before Syria’s conflict erupted in 2011, Damiriya owned 110 hives in Rankus, a village near Damascus that was once filled with apple orchards.
But now a combination of fighting, severe drought and a gruelling economic crisis have left him with a mere 40 hives in semi-arid lands, decimating his honey yield.
Rankus was once renowned for its honey, but was hard hit by fighting between government forces and rebels that caused widespread destruction, pushing many residents to flee.
Damiriya can barely afford to tend to his hives, donated by the International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC) to help Syrian beekeepers.
“If we keep suffering from climate change and rising prices, I might have to abandon my profession,” Damiriya said with a sigh.
Since 2011, Syria’s war has killed more than half a million people and caused an acute economic crisis, exacerbated by severe Western sanctions.
Recent years have also battered Syria with heatwaves, low rainfall and more forest fires.
A 2019 United Nations report found that fighting had practically wiped out hives, with bombs contaminating the environment and pesticide misuse and a proliferation of parasites speeding up their decline.
Syria used to be home to 635,000 hives before the war, but their numbers had dwindled to about 150,000 at the height of the conflict in 2016, said Iyad Daaboul, the Damascus-based president of the Arab Beekeepers Union.
Today that number has risen back up to 400,000, he said. However, the hives yield only 1,500 tons of honey per year — half of the country’s pre-war production.
Unusually cold springs and drought have had an adverse effect on the flowers that bees feed on.
“Extreme weather conditions have greatly affected bees, especially during spring — the most important time in their life cycle,” said Daaboul.
The number of beekeepers has nearly halved from 32,000 before the war to around 18,000 today, he said.
Another threat to the bees is the forest fires which have become more common as temperatures rise.
Fires “have destroyed more than 1,000 hives on Syria’s coastal mountains and stripped bees of large foraging areas,” Daaboul said.
Rising temperatures and desertification have taken a toll on Syria’s greenery, destroying many of the plants on whose flowers the bees feed and squeezing the once-thriving agriculture sector.
Damascus ICRC spokesperson Suhair Zakkout told AFP that “Syria’s agricultural production has fallen by approximately 50 percent over the last 10 years” because of war and climate change.
Despite being one of the countries most badly affected by global warming, Syria has lacked the funds it needs to tackle environmental issues, Zakkout said.
Climate change has devastated farmer Ziad Rankusi’s apple orchards, which have also been greatly thinned by illegal logging as people struggle to keep warm during the winter amid recurrent fuel shortages.
Rankusi, who is in his 50s, used to tend more than 1,000 trees on his land, but just 400 survive, and they are drying out in the heat.
“For about five years, we have had unprecedented droughts and desertification, and this year the spring was unusually cold. The fruit perished,” said the farmer.
“When trees and flowers disappear, bees can no longer feed. They either migrate or die.”


World Court to hear Syria torture claims on Oct. 10-11

World Court to hear Syria torture claims on Oct. 10-11
Updated 28 September 2023
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World Court to hear Syria torture claims on Oct. 10-11

World Court to hear Syria torture claims on Oct. 10-11
  • The hearing at the Peace Palace will mark the first time an international court has looked at alleged abuses committed in Syria during 12 years of conflict

AMSTERDAM: The World Court will hear on Oct. 10 and 11 a request by the Netherlands and Canada that it orders Syria to cease all acts of torture and arbitrary detention, as part of a case alleging the country has breached a UN anti-torture treaty.
The hearing at the Peace Palace, the court’s seat in The Hague, will mark the first time an international court has looked at alleged abuses committed in Syria during 12 years of conflict.
Syria’s government and President Bashar Assad have rejected accusations of torture and extrajudicial killings in a war that the United Nations has said claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.


Iraq’s prime minister visits wedding fire victims as 2 more people die from their injuries

Iraq’s prime minister visits wedding fire victims as 2 more people die from their injuries
Updated 28 September 2023
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Iraq’s prime minister visits wedding fire victims as 2 more people die from their injuries

Iraq’s prime minister visits wedding fire victims as 2 more people die from their injuries
  • Around 250 panicked guests surged for the exits on Tuesday night in the Haitham Royal Wedding Hall in the predominantly Christian area of Hamdaniya near Mosul
BAGHDAD: Iraq’s prime minister on Thursday visited injured patients and the families of victims in northern Iraq days after a deadly wedding fire killed around 100 people, as two more people died from their injuries.
Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani arrived in Nineveh province early Thursday with a delegation of ministers and security officials, state television reported. He met with the wounded and family members of victims at Hamdaniyah Hospital and Al-Jumhoori Hospital.
He later visited the Syriac Catholic Mar Behnam Monastery to express his condolences to victims.
A health official, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, told The Associated Press that two critically burned victims — a 30-year-old woman and a 4-year-old child — died from their injuries.
Around 250 panicked guests surged for the exits on Tuesday night in the Haitham Royal Wedding Hall in the predominantly Christian area of Hamdaniya near Mosul after the ceiling panels above a pyrotechnic machine burst into flames.
Authorities said around 100 people died in the incident, and the death toll is expected to rise with at least 100 other people still injured, many of them critically burned.
The venue’s owners have been accused of violating safety protocols.
The Mosul Municipality on Wednesday called for the closure of hotels, restaurants, and other venues that don’t have safety approvals or have ignored warnings.
Funeral processions continued Thursday at the Saint Behnam Syriac Catholic Church. A video circulating on Iraqi media and social media showed the bride and groom among the crowd mourning.
The Interior Ministry said highly flammable building materials contributed to the disaster and accused the owners of violating safety and security protocols. The tragedy was the latest to hit Iraq’s Christian minority, which has dwindled to a fraction of its former size over the past decade.
A security official told the AP that one of the venue’s owners and 13 workers and employees are currently under investigation. The official said that negligence caused the incident and that the government is preparing to compensate survivors and the families of victims. He speak on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press.
A government spokesperson said the authorities will conduct strict inspections of hotels, schools, restaurants and event venues to make sure they are complying with safety standards.
One owner of the venue, Chonny Suleiman Naboo, told The Associated Press that an electrical fault caused the fire and denied that they had neglected safety procedures.