UAE’s central bank raises 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4% amid oil sector expansion

UAE’s central bank raises 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4% amid oil sector expansion
The Central Bank of the UAE expects the country’s GDP to grow by 4 percent in 2024 (File/Getty)
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Updated 26 September 2024
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UAE’s central bank raises 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4% amid oil sector expansion

UAE’s central bank raises 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4% amid oil sector expansion

RIYADH: The UAE’s central bank has revised up its forecast for the country’s GDP growth in 2024 by 0.1 percentage points in light of expected improvements in the oil sector.

The institution had originally slated 3.9 percent growth for the 12-month period, but is now projecting an expansion of 4 percent.

In its second-quarter economic report, the bank maintained its 2025 growth forecast at 6 percent.

The analysis predicted that the non-hydrocarbon sector will grow by 5.2 percent in 2024, rising to 5.3 percent in 2025, while the hydrocarbon division is expected to see a modest 0.7 percent growth this year, increasing to 7.7 percent in 2025.

The report said: “Growth forecasts continue to be driven by tourism, transportation, financial and insurance services, construction and real estate, and communications sectors; while the current levels of oil production during 2024 partially moderate the overall growth.”

The central bank anticipated strong momentum in the hydrocarbon sector in 2025, with significant production increases. Additionally, it underlined that a rapid decline in interest rates in major advanced economies could boost global demand and encourage capital flows into emerging markets, including the UAE.

The report also revealed that non-hydrocarbon GDP growth stood at 4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, down from 6.7 percent in the previous quarter, mainly due to a slowdown in financial and insurance services, real estate activities, construction and manufacturing.

However, the report said that “non-hydrocarbon GDP growth is expected to remain strong at 5.2 percent in 2024 and 5.3 percent in 2025,” mainly driven by strategic plans and policies that the government has undertaken to attract foreign investments and the ongoing structural reforms.

The fiscal balance for the first quarter of the year remained positive at 23.5 billion Emirati dirhams ($6.39 billion), or 4.9 percent of GDP, compared to 23.2 billion dirhams, or 5.1 percent of GDP, in the first quarter of 2023.

The UAE’s consolidated budget revenues grew by 4.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter to 120.6 billion dirhams, or 24.9 percent of GDP, driven primarily by a 32.5 percent annual increase in tax revenues.

The central bank highlighted that the UAE’s fiscal stability is improving, with tax revenues making up an increasing share of total revenues — rising from 45.8 percent in the first quarter of 2022 to 70 percent in the first quarter of 2024 — mainly due to the recent introduction of corporate taxes.

The report also detailed government spending in the first quarter, saying: “Government expenditure in the first quarter of 2024 totaled 97.1 billion dirhams, or 20 percent of GDP, reflecting a 5 percent year-on-year increase.”

Key spending categories, including employee compensation, goods and services, and social benefits, rose by 6.3 percent, 15.2 percent, and 3.4 percent, respectively. Capital expenditures also saw a significant rise, increasing more than sevenfold to 5.6 billion dirhams.

The Central Bank of the UAE pointed to signs of expansion in the private non-oil sector, with the country’s purchasing managers’ index reaching 53.7 in July, reflecting sustained business confidence. 

Employment data showed that the number of workers covered by the Wage Protection System remained stable year-on-year in June, while average monthly wages increased by 4.8 percent. 

“The 16 non-oil sectors continued their robust growth pattern in Q2 2024, albeit at a more moderate rate,” the report added.

Wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, and construction remained key pillars of non-oil sector expansion. 

Various comprehensive economic partnership agreements and visa-related initiatives have boosted trade volumes and transactions, while the manufacturing sector “continued to attract greater levels of FDI (foreign direct investment), expanding in line with Operation 300 billion.”

The construction sector also advanced, with numerous new infrastructure projects underway, including Etihad Rail and the Port of Dubai Creek.


Oman to be first Gulf country to impose personal income tax

Oman to be first Gulf country to impose personal income tax
Updated 36 min 10 sec ago
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Oman to be first Gulf country to impose personal income tax

Oman to be first Gulf country to impose personal income tax

RIYADH: Oman will become the first country in the Gulf to impose a personal income tax, as the oil producer works to diversify its revenue stream. 

The sultanate will impose a 5-percent levy on taxable income for individuals earning over 42,000 Omani rials ($109,091) per year starting from 2028, according to a royal decree.

The Gulf country added that the tax would apply to about 1 percent of the population. 

The move comes after Oman launched a medium-term fiscal program in 2020 to reduce public debt, diversify revenue sources, and spur economic growth, which has improved state finances. 

“The law also includes deductions and exemptions that take into account the social situation in the Sultanate of Oman, such as education, health care, inheritance, zakat, donations, primary housing,” the country’s tax authority said in a statement. 

The law was implemented following an “in-depth study to assess the economic and social impact,” and income data collected from various government entities was used to set the exemption threshold. 

“The results showed that approximately 99 percent of the population in the Sultanate of Oman is not subject to this tax,” the authority said. 

The statement added that the electronic system has been designed to enhance voluntary compliance and is linked with relevant institutions to ensure accurate calculation of individuals’ income and to verify the accuracy of submitted tax returns.

The tax will contribute to achieving social solidarity and will not include wealth, such as land ownership. It will be imposed on the annual income specified by law and includes “all cash amounts and in-kind benefits received by the individual,” the authority said. 

The move aims to complete the tax system in line with the economic and social situation in the sultanate, and the tax revenue will go toward supporting the social protection program, “with sustained cooperation,” it added. 

The move will support the objectives of Oman Vision 2040, which targets reducing dependence on oil by achieving 15 percent of gross domestic product from non-oil sources by 2030 and 18 percent by 2040. 

“It will also contribute to achieving social justice by redistributing the wealth among the segments of society, provide support to the general budget of the country, and be directed in particular to finance part of the costs of the social protection system,” the authority said. 


Saudi Arabia’s non-oil industrial production up 5.3% in 2024: GASTAT

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil industrial production up 5.3% in 2024: GASTAT
Updated 4 min 46 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia’s non-oil industrial production up 5.3% in 2024: GASTAT

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil industrial production up 5.3% in 2024: GASTAT

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil industrial activities posted robust growth of 5.3 percent in 2024, highlighting the success of the Kingdom’s economic diversification efforts under Vision 2030.

The overall Industrial Production Index however declined by 2.3 percent, driven primarily by a 5.2 percent contraction in oil-related activities, according to the latest report from the General Authority for Statistics.

Saudi Arabia’s growing non-oil industrial output reflects progress in diversifying revenue and jobs beyond oil, a key Vision 2030 goal. 

Reforms such as easier licensing, tax incentives, and mega projects are driving growth in manufacturing, logistics, and technology. While oil remains volatile, the expansion is showing early success in the private sector, driven by growth in foreign direct investment.

During the Davos Conference in January, Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim said that the non-oil economy is expected to grow by 4.8 percent this year.

Manufacturing played a pivotal role in driving growth in 2024, recording a 4.7 percent annual increase. Food production expanded by 6.2 percent, while the manufacture of chemicals and chemical products,, and coke and refined petroleum goods increased by 2.8 percent.

The mining and quarrying sector, which includes oil extraction, saw a decline of 6.8 percent in 2024. This drop offsets gains in other areas, pulling the overall IPI into negative territory for the year.

The report also revealed positive trends in utilities and infrastructure-related sectors. Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply activities grew by 3.5 percent, while water supply, sewerage, and waste management services increased by 1.6 percent. 

Saudi endeavors in non-oil exports

The Kingdom’s non-oil export sector has also seen impressive growth, reinforcing diversification efforts.

According to official  data released in April, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports reached SR515 billion ($137 billion) in 2024, a 13 percent increase from the previous year and a 113 percent rise since the launch of Vision 2030.

This expansion spanned all export sectors, with merchandise exports rising to SR217 billion, driven by petrochemical and non-petrochemical goods.

The Kingdom now exports to over 180 countries, with 37, including the UAE, France, and Indonesia, registering record imports, solidifying its role as a growing global trade hub.


Oil Updates – crude surges to 5-month high after US hits Iran’s key nuclear sites

Oil Updates – crude surges to 5-month high after US hits Iran’s key nuclear sites
Updated 23 June 2025
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Oil Updates – crude surges to 5-month high after US hits Iran’s key nuclear sites

Oil Updates – crude surges to 5-month high after US hits Iran’s key nuclear sites
  • Brent, WTI up more than 3 percent before paring gains
  • US attack on Iran increases risk of supply disruption
  • Fears Iran could close Strait of Hormuz, key oil supply route

NEW DELHI: Oil prices jumped on Monday to their highest since January as the US’s weekend move to join Israel in attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities stoked supply concerns.

Both contracts rose by more than 3 percent earlier in the session to $81.40 and $78.40, respectively, touching five-month highs before giving up some gains.

By 12:21 p.m. Saudi time, Brent crude futures were up 5 cents or 0.06 percent to $77.06 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 0.02 cents or 0.03 percent to $73.86.

The rise in prices came after US President Donald Trump said he had “obliterated” Iran’s main nuclear sites in strikes over the weekend, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself.

Iran is OPEC’s third-largest crude producer.

Market participants expect further price gains amid mounting fears that an Iranian retaliation may include a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global crude supply flows.

“The current geopolitical escalation provides the fundamental catalyst for (Brent) prices to traverse higher and potentially spiral toward $100, with $120 per barrel appearing increasingly plausible,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based research firm SS WealthStreet.

Iran said on Monday that the US attack on its nuclear sites expanded the range of legitimate targets for its armed forces and called Trump a “gambler” for joining Israel’s military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

“The risks of damage to oil infrastructure ... have multiplied,” said Sparta Commodities senior analyst June Goh.

Although there are alternative pipeline routes out of the region, there will still be crude volume that cannot be fully exported out if the Strait of Hormuz becomes inaccessible. Shippers will increasingly stay out of the region, she added.

Goldman Sachs said in a Sunday report that Brent could briefly peak at $110 per barrel if oil flows through the critical waterway were halved for a month, and remain down by 10 percent for the following 11 months.

The bank still assumed no significant disruption to oil and natural gas supply, adding global incentives to try and prevent a sustained and very large disruption.

Brent has risen 13 percent since the conflict began on June 13, while WTI has gained around 10 percent.

Given the Strait of Hormuz is indispensable for Iran’s own oil exports, which are a vital source of its national revenues, a sustained closure would inflict severe economic damage on Iran itself, making it a double-edged sword, Sachdeva added.

Meanwhile, Japan on Monday called for de-escalation of the conflict in Iran, while a South Korean vice industry minister voiced concern over the potential impact of the strikes on the country’s trade.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Moscow on Monday, Russian Interfax agency said, citing Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov.


Saudi Arabia, Kuwait sign MoU to boost anti-money laundering efforts

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait sign MoU to boost anti-money laundering efforts
Updated 22 June 2025
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Saudi Arabia, Kuwait sign MoU to boost anti-money laundering efforts

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait sign MoU to boost anti-money laundering efforts

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have signed a memorandum of understanding to bolster cooperation in the fight against money laundering and the financing of terrorism, reinforcing regional efforts to strengthen financial security.

The agreement, inked between Saudi Arabia’s General Department of Financial Investigations and Kuwait’s Financial Intelligence Unit, was finalized on the sidelines of the second meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council Committee of Financial Intelligence Units, held in Kuwait, the Kuwait News Agency reported.

The MoU aims to enhance intelligence sharing and operational coordination between the two nations. It is expected to significantly improve the effectiveness of the region’s financial crime prevention frameworks, aligning with international standards and bolstering joint mechanisms among GCC financial intelligence units.

The signing follows a virtual workshop hosted in March by the National Center for Non-Profit Sector Development, which focused on preventing money laundering and terrorist financing within non-profit organizations, including charitable groups and foundations.

The agreement also reflects broader economic ties between the two Gulf neighbors. In February, Kuwait’s exports to Saudi Arabia reached SR137 million ($36.5 million), up 19.6 percent from the previous year, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity.

Officials from both countries highlighted the MoU’s role in advancing national capabilities, fostering regional integration, and aligning with best practices in financial intelligence and compliance.

The renewed cooperation comes as Saudi Arabia continues to encourage Kuwaiti investment in its mining and industrial sectors.

In April, Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef met with a delegation of Kuwaiti businessmen during an official visit to Kuwait, emphasizing untapped opportunities in the Kingdom’s mining industry.

Alkhorayef underscored the sector’s importance to Saudi Vision 2030, which aims to position the Kingdom as a global industrial and mining hub. He cited estimates valuing Saudi mineral resources at over SR9.3 trillion.

Combatting money laundering remains a national priority for Saudi Arabia, which has implemented a comprehensive legal and regulatory framework to protect the integrity of its financial system and prevent illicit funding activities, including terrorism financing.


Closing Bell: Saudi main index edges down 0.34% to close at 10,574

Closing Bell: Saudi main index edges down 0.34% to close at 10,574
Updated 23 June 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index edges down 0.34% to close at 10,574

Closing Bell: Saudi main index edges down 0.34% to close at 10,574

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index edged lower on Sunday, falling 36.44 points, or 0.34 percent, to close at 10,574.27.

Total trading turnover reached SR3.72 billion ($991 million), with 134 stocks posting gains and 102 declining.

The Kingdom’s parallel market, Nomu, also recorded a slight dip, losing 27.14 points, or 0.10 percent, to settle at 26,148.69, as 34 stocks advanced and 39 retreated. Meanwhile, the MSCI Tadawul 30 Index dropped 5.34 points, or 0.39 percent, to finish at 1,361.80.

Alistithmar AREIC Diversified REIT Fund was the best-performing stock of the session, with its share price rising 10 percent to SR8.25. Al Sagr Cooperative Insurance Co. followed with a 9.96 percent increase to SR12.36, while Knowledge Economic City climbed 5.36 percent to close at SR12.98.

On the losing side, Retal Urban Development Co. saw the steepest decline, falling 5.10 percent to SR13.02. Flynas Co. dropped 4.13 percent to SR74.20, and Saudi Chemical Co. declined 3.85 percent to SR6.24.

Shares of Hawiya Identity Auctions began trading on Nomu at SR13 per share. According to a Tadawul statement, the offering comprised 2.4 million shares, with Derayah Financial Co. acting as lead manager.

Gas Arabian Services Co. announced the signing of a joint venture agreement with Italy’s BONOMI Co. to establish a valve manufacturing company in the Kingdom.

The new company will have a capital of SR5 million, with BONOMI holding a 60 percent stake and Gas Arabian Services owning 40 percent.

The Saudi firm will fund its SR2 million share from internal resources. The deal is expected to have a long-term positive financial impact, though it remains subject to regulatory approvals and the fulfillment of conditions outlined in the agreement. Gas Arabian Services shares closed at SR15, up 0.40 percent.

The price range for the offering of the Sports Clubs Co. ranged between SR7 and SR7.5 per share, according to a statement by Saudi Fransi Capital, the financial advisor and bookrunner for the institutional subscription.

The offering includes 34.32 million ordinary shares, representing 30 percent of the company’s capital.