Saudi banks positioned for 2025 profit growth amid interest rate cuts: Report

Saudi banks positioned for 2025 profit growth amid interest rate cuts: Report
Saudi banks are sustaining stable asset quality, with Stage 1 or good loans increasing to 93.4 percent in the first half of the year. Shutterstock
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Updated 27 September 2024
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Saudi banks positioned for 2025 profit growth amid interest rate cuts: Report

Saudi banks positioned for 2025 profit growth amid interest rate cuts: Report

RIYADH: Saudi banks are poised for a significant increase in profit margins in early 2025, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts that are expected to position them favorably against their Gulf counterparts.

A recent report from Bloomberg Intelligence highlighted the strengths of the Kingdom’s financial institutions, pointing out that they enjoy higher valuations primarily due to their reduced exposure to volatile markets.

Their conservative leverage not only positions them favorably but also allows for a strategic increase in profitability as interest rates decline.

Moreover, their adept management of the tax landscape enhances their competitive edge compared to other Gulf nations.

In addition to these factors, Saudi Arabia’s substantial role in a $2 trillion construction pipeline in the Middle East and North Africa region, which accounts for 34 percent of the total, indicates that the country’s banks will increasingly need to secure funding to support a variety of ongoing projects.

Following the US Federal Reserve’s decision on Sep. 18, the central banks of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain reduced their interest rates by 50 basis points, with Qatar cutting its deposit, lending, and repo rates by 55 basis points.  

This change signaled a shift in US monetary policy after two years of rate hikes aimed at controlling inflation.

Central banks within the Gulf Cooperation Council, including Saudi Arabia, typically align their policies with the Fed due to the peg of their currencies to the US dollar.

The analysts in the report predict that the Federal Reserve will implement a series of interest rate cuts, starting with a 50 basis point reduction in September, followed by 25 basis point cuts in the subsequent two meetings. This would total a reduction of 100 basis points for the year.

The reduction in interest rates is expected to support Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 projects and further accelerate non-oil activities. Businesses in capital-intensive sectors such as real estate, construction, and infrastructure are likely to benefit from cheaper credit, facilitating more aggressive expansion and investment opportunities.

Impact of oil price and government spending

The valuation of Gulf banks is influenced by several key factors, particularly oil prices and regional spending, according to the report. An average price of $80 per barrel is essential for maintaining liquidity in the Gulf banking sector, as it supports the economic stability and cash flow necessary for banking operations.

For Saudi Arabia, achieving budget balance requires an oil price of $108 per barrel, largely due to a substantial increase in public expenditure, which rose by $111 billion from 2016 to 2023. Including investments by the sovereign wealth fund in domestic projects, total spending has increased by $148 billion.

This spending surge is associated with various government initiatives aimed at promoting social and economic development. MEED’s July data reveals that Saudi Arabia leads with a project value of $680 billion within a $2 trillion construction pipeline set for the next five years, excluding energy-related projects.

The Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, valued at $925 billion, reported a 29 percent increase in assets, reaching SR2.87 trillion ($765.2 billion) in 2023.

This growth is largely attributed to a strong emphasis on local investments. Allocations for domestic infrastructure and real estate development rose by 15 percent year-over-year to SR233 billion, while foreign investments increased by 14 percent to SR586 billion.

Simultaneously, the Saudi government has introduced new laws and reforms to stimulate and mandate domestic investment, aligning with its Vision 2030 initiative to diversify the oil-dependent economy.

With plans to invest approximately $680 billion in construction projects over the next five years, banks may need around $400 billion to finance 60 percent of this pipeline, relying on a mix of deposits and additional debt issuance.

Funding the growth

As reported by Bloomberg Intelligence, Saudi banks have issued $13 billion in debt by August, with $6 billion of that coming from sources excluding the Saudi National Bank’s certificates of deposits issued in Singapore. This amount surpasses the $11 billion in debt issued by UAE banks during the same timeframe.

Total debt issuance from Saudi banks is projected to reach at least $15 billion annually, supported by a diversified funding strategy that includes up to 15 percent from wholesale funding.

The last instance of Saudi banks outperforming UAE banks in debt issuance was in 2022, when tight liquidity and increased capital demand, particularly from the mortgage sector, were prevalent.

Bloomberg Intelligence noted that Saudi banks’ debt offerings are 3.7 times oversubscribed, compared to three times for their UAE counterparts. This indicates strong investor confidence and ample market liquidity, enabling Saudi banks to secure the necessary capital for expansion as the nation advances its Vision 2030 initiatives.

However, the report also pointed out a challenge: Saudi banks are dealing with a $4 billion currency mismatch, meaning they may have borrowed in one currency while managing assets or revenues in another, exposing them to financial risks from fluctuating exchange rates.

Moreover, heightened competition among Saudi banks has led to narrower spreads on corporate loans, making it challenging to impose higher rates. Although declining interest rates may improve these spreads, the high costs of liabilities compel banks to seek additional strategies to enhance the profitability of their corporate lending.

Shift to sustainable funding

Saudi banks primarily rely on wholesale funding from other banks and financial institutions; however, this source is deemed unreliable for long-term obligations, particularly those in foreign currencies.

Consequently, the report emphasizes the urgent need for Saudi banks to secure more stable, long-term funding options to support their operations and growth.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the share of wholesale funding in Saudi banks’ balance sheets has decreased from 15 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 14 percent in June, signaling a shift in how banks are managing liquidity needs and reducing reliance on short-term interbank borrowing.

Additionally, UAE banks have extended liquidity support to Saudi banks through interest-bearing deposits, showcasing cross-border financial collaboration.

While unsecured debt constitutes only 3 percent of the banks’ assets, this figure has risen due to record debt issuance this year. This suggests that although Saudi banks are working to expand their debt profiles, a significant portion of their funding remains secured.

Furthermore, Tier 1 capital represents 2 percent of the balance sheet, indicating a stable capital position relative to total assets. Notably, Al Rajhi Bank and Alinma Bank have received considerable amounts in time deposits from other banks, which suggests variability in the amounts they can secure over time despite their engagement with wholesale funding.

Asset quality and profitability

Saudi banks are sustaining stable asset quality, with Stage 1 or good loans increasing to 93.4 percent in the first half of the year, up from 92.8 percent in 2023. This improvement is attributed to strong new loan origination.

The report indicated that write-offs and recoveries surged, peaking at SR6 billion in the fourth quarter, resulting in a decline of Stage 3 or bad loans to just 1.6 percent.

To mitigate potential risks, banks are bolstering their provision buffers, with coverage for Stage 1 loans rising to 45 basis points. The cost of risk improved to 34 basis points in the second quarter, exceeding expectations; however, it may increase in the latter half of the year if recovery trends falter.

In contrast, UAE banks, which experienced a significant boost in profitability last year, are likely to face a rise in their cost of risk as they adapt to a new corporate tax structure while striving to maintain their performance levels.

The introduction of a 9 percent tax, projected to increase to 15 percent in 2025, along with the potential for higher provisioning requirements in the future, presents challenges for these banks.

Saudi banks, on the other hand, are already subject to a 10 percent zakat tax but operate with lower leverage compared to their UAE counterparts. This reduced leverage positions Saudi banks favorably to enhance their return on equity if interest rates decrease.

While UAE banks managed to soften the impact of the corporate tax in their second-quarter financial results, their margins are under pressure, raising concerns about their loan recovery capabilities, which could affect bad-loan ratios.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, Qatari banks are expected to maintain relatively stable margins, but their exposure to the real estate sector presents a risk to asset quality. A recovery in this sector could serve as a significant catalyst for enhancing overall stability and performance.

Fitch Ratings reported in August that the operating environment for Saudi banks is favorable, assigning them a score of bbb+, the highest among the banking sectors in the GCC.

This score is one notch above the ratings of its closest peers— UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait— and represents the highest score awarded by Fitch globally to emerging market banking sectors.

Fitch anticipated that Saudi banks will continue to grow at roughly double the average rate of the GCC, with projected financing growth of about 12 percent for 2024, compared to 11 percent in 2023.


Closing Bell: GCC stock markets up in wake of Trump’s election win

Closing Bell: GCC stock markets up in wake of Trump’s election win
Updated 07 November 2024
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Closing Bell: GCC stock markets up in wake of Trump’s election win

Closing Bell: GCC stock markets up in wake of Trump’s election win

RIYADH: Following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, stock markets across the Gulf Cooperation Council saw a strong rally.

Markets posted gains, with Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index finishing 0.31 percent up to close at 12,130.80 points on Thursday. This came after Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman congratulated Trump on winning the election in a phone call on Wednesday, according to the Saudi News Agency.

Dubai’s Financial Market mirrored the upward momentum, climbing 0.60 percent. Abu Dhabi’s Securities Exchange also saw a lift, finishing the day up 0.44 percent.

Bahrain’s Bourse recorded a rise of 0.52 percent, while Kuwait’s main market similarly rose, closing with a 0.10 percent gain.

However, the Muscat Securities Market in Oman saw a 0.17 percent decrease, while the Qatar Stock Exchange was closed for a public holiday. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index on TASI was SR7.53 billion ($2 billion) as 113 of the listed stocks advanced, while 111 retreated.   

Similarly, the MSCI Tadawul Index increased by 2.03 points, or 0.13 percent, to close at 1,521.79.

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu also climbed by 415.36 points, or 1.44 percent, to close at 29,269.00. This comes as 49 of the listed stocks advanced while as many as 22 retreated.

The best-performing stock of the day was Rasan Information Technology Co., whose share price surged by 7.13 percent to SR78.10.

Other top performers include Miahona Co., and Theeb Rent a Car Co., with Miahona’s share price climbing 6.75 percent to SR29.25 and Theeb’s rising 6.59 percent to SR79.30.

Naseej International Trading Co. and Al Moammar Information Systems Co. also posted rises.

The worst performer was Saudi Arabian Mining Co., whose share price dropped by 4.09 percent to SR53.90.

Other worst performers were Abdulmohsen Alhokair Group for Tourism and Development, whose share price fell by 3.18 percent to SR2.74, and ACWA Power Co., which saw a 2.95 percent drop to SR441.20.

On an announcement front, ACWA Power Co. announced its results for interim financial results for the first nine months of 2024, ending on Sept. 30, with revenues surging by 13.3 percent to reach SR1.74 billion, compared to SR1.542 billion in 2023.

The increase was primarily driven by higher revenue from electricity sales, operation and maintenance services, and additional income from development projects and construction management, the company said on Tadawul. 

BinDawood Holding Co. also disclosed its financial results for the third quarter, with revenues slightly increasing by 0.189 percent to reach SR1.361 compared to the same quarter last year.

The company closed Thursday’s trading session at SR7.02, a 0.29 percent increase.

Saudi Steel Pipe Co. also released its financial results for the nine months of the year, recording SR381 million in revenues, a 20.18 percent increase compared to the same period last year.

The company closed today’s trading session at SR71.40, decreasing by 1.27 percent.

The United International Transportation Co. disclosed a 37.052 percent increase in revenues for the first nine months to reach SR505.8 million, compared to SR369.07 million during the same period last year.

This was primarily driven by the expansion of a long-term lease fleet and the resulting higher lease revenues.

The company closed at SR84, with its stock valie declining by 1.55 percent.


ACWA Power reports 16% profit increase amid record project launches

ACWA Power reports 16% profit increase amid record project launches
Updated 07 November 2024
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ACWA Power reports 16% profit increase amid record project launches

ACWA Power reports 16% profit increase amid record project launches

RIYADH: ACWA Power, the Saudi-listed energy and water desalination company, has announced a 16 percent increase in its profits for the first nine months of 2024, underpinned by significant progress in its power and water production projects.

For the period, ACWA Power’s net profit attributable to equity holders reached SR1.25 billion ($334 million), a rise fueled by a 12.5 percent increase in operating income, which reached SR2.36 billion.

This marks a strong improvement from the same period in 2023. According to a company press release, the growth was primarily driven by an investment gain from the restructuring of a project, alongside a capital recycling gain.

ACWA Power’s CEO, Marco Arcelli, highlighted the company’s commitment to growth, noting that its portfolio now includes 26 projects — the largest in its 20-year history.

“These projects reflect both the speed at which we are realizing our growth, through swift financial closes, and the scale of future cash flows from a diverse and young portfolio,” Arcelli said.

He reiterated the company’s focus on providing reliable, cost-effective energy and water, aiming to create positive impacts across all its operations.

Over the past nine months, ACWA Power successfully achieved financial closure on seven major projects worth SR31 billion. These include Saudi Arabia’s Taiba and Qassim Combined Cycle Gas Turbine projects, the Tashkent Solar PV project in Uzbekistan, and the Hassyan Seawater Reverse Osmosis plant in the UAE.

The company’s expansion in power generation is also evident, having added 2.4 GW of capacity during the same period, including the Ar Rass Solar PV project, a 700 MW solar plant that was completed in just 18 months.

On the renewable energy front, ACWA Power secured a 5 GW Power Purchase Agreement for the Aral Wind project in Uzbekistan, as well as 5.5 GW of solar photovoltaic capacity as part of Saudi Arabia’s fourth round of Public Investment Fund projects.

In water desalination, the company signed a Water Purchase Agreement for the 410,000 cubic meters per day Hamriyah Independent Water Project in the UAE.

Abdulhameed Al-Muhaidib, ACWA Power’s Chief Financial Officer, expressed confidence in the company’s future, stating, “In the first nine months of 2024, we saw strong project mobilization, achieving financial closure on seven projects worth SR31 billion. We also began generating revenue from 2.2 GW of projects that reached partial or full commercial operation.”

He added: “Our diversified asset base, visible growth pipeline, and resilient business model, combined with our focus on operational excellence, give us confidence in achieving sustainable, long-term financial performance.”


UAE banking sector’s net international reserves grow 11% by July 2024

UAE banking sector’s net international reserves grow 11% by July 2024
Updated 07 November 2024
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UAE banking sector’s net international reserves grow 11% by July 2024

UAE banking sector’s net international reserves grow 11% by July 2024

RIYADH: The UAE’s banking sector saw a significant increase in its net international reserves, which rose by 11.1 percent— or 127.5 billion dirhams ($34.3 billion) — during the first seven months of 2024.

By the end of July, the reserves totaled 1.273 trillion dirhams, up from 1.145 trillion dirhams at the close of 2023.

According to the Central Bank of the UAE’s June statistical bulletin, the central bank’s share of these reserves stood at 771.6 billion dirhams at the end of July, reflecting a 14.6 percent increase compared to 673.42 billion dirhams at the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the net international reserves of banks operating in the UAE amounted to 501.6 billion dirhams, marking a 6.22 percent rise from 472.2 billion dirhams at the end of last year.

The bulletin also highlighted a notable increase in the central bank’s gold reserves, which grew by 23.5 percent year on year to 21.28 billion dirhams by July’s end, up from 17.226 billion dirhams in July 2023. Over the first seven months of 2024, gold reserves increased by 17.3 percent, from 18.147 billion dirhams at the close of 2023.

In terms of banking operations, the value of transfers processed through the UAE Financial Transfer System exceeded 11.13 trillion dirhams during the first seven months of 2024, reflecting a 17 percent year-on-year growth from 9.5 trillion dirhams in the same period in 2023.

Monthly remittance values were as follows: 1.512 trillion dirhams in January, 1.449 trillion dirhams in February, 1.565 trillion dirhams in March, 1.592 trillion dirhams in April, 1.78 trillion dirhams in May, 1.42 trillion dirhams in June, and 1.81 trillion dirhams in July.

Additionally, the central bank’s data revealed that the value of cheques cleared via image technology totaled 765.08 billion dirhams across more than 13 million cheques during the first seven months of 2024.

The bulletin also showed that cash deposits at the central bank reached 111.4 billion dirhams during the period, while cash withdrawals totaled 120.3 billion dirhams.


MODON signs contracts worth over $533m to establish industrial complexes in Makkah, Al-Kharj

MODON signs contracts worth over $533m to establish industrial complexes in Makkah, Al-Kharj
Updated 07 November 2024
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MODON signs contracts worth over $533m to establish industrial complexes in Makkah, Al-Kharj

MODON signs contracts worth over $533m to establish industrial complexes in Makkah, Al-Kharj

JEDDAH: Agreements to invest over SR2 billion ($533 million) in new industrial complexes will bring growth and job opportunities to Saudi Arabia’s cities of Makkah and Al-Kharj, advancing Vision 2030.

The Saudi Authority for Industrial Cities and Technology Zones, or MODON, signed two contracts with Albaddad Holding to establish complexes within the second industrial cities in both boroughs. 

The inking ceremony took place under the patronage of the Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources, Bandar Alkhorayef.

Under the contracts, the company is responsible for developing the infrastructure and constructing ready-made and prefabricated buildings to create a fully integrated complex that supports industrial objectives. 

It will also improve production efficiency and enhance added value and sustainable growth opportunities, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

The agreements were signed by MODON’s CEO, Majed Rafed Al-Argoubi, and Zayed bin Hussein Al-Baddad, CEO of Albaddad Holding, in the presence of the company’s chairman, Al-Fateen bin Hussein Al-Baddad.

The initiative aligns with MODON’s vision to be the preferred destination for investment growth and the leading partner for industrial and technology ecosystems, fostering an enabling environment that enhances business sustainability and contributes to national economic development.

These efforts support the goals of Saudi Arabia’s National Industrial Strategy and the Vision 2030 objective of transforming the Kingdom into a leading industrial powerhouse.

The Makkah project is MODON’s first privately developed complex, spanning over 1.3 million sq. meters with an investment of SR1.75 billion. 

It aims to localize promising industries through advanced production technology, create 5,000 jobs, and boost national exports, with up to 60 percent of its output targeting markets in Africa, Europe, the Americas, and countries including Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan, as well as Iraq.

MODON has also launched several development projects in the second industrial city of Makkah, which is over 4.3 million sq. meters in size, including integrated infrastructure enhanced with essential services and innovative products.

This includes a new 200 megavolt-amperes substation to foster a competitive industrial environment promoting growth and sustainability.

The Al-Kharj industrial complex, spanning over 307,000 sq. meters with an investment of SR375 million, is expected to create approximately 1,000 jobs, supporting industries such as construction, exhibitions, and sports as well as cultural and entertainment events.

It will also enhance the iron, aluminum, glass, and PVC textile industries, with plans to export 60 percent of its production to neighboring Gulf countries.

Through these efforts, MODON is driving industrial growth in the Kingdom by developing and managing distinguished industrial cities and technology zones in collaboration with the public and private sectors.

Currently, the developed land area across 37 industrial cities in Saudi Arabia exceeds 215 million sq. meters, housing approximately 6,882 industrial facilities.


Logistics and healthcare startups to get boost from Saudi government, assistant deputy minister says

Logistics and healthcare startups to get boost from Saudi government, assistant deputy minister says
Updated 07 November 2024
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Logistics and healthcare startups to get boost from Saudi government, assistant deputy minister says

Logistics and healthcare startups to get boost from Saudi government, assistant deputy minister says

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is set to launch multiple programs to boost its rapidly expanding startup ecosystem, focusing on the healthcare and logistics sectors, according to a senior official.

Speaking to Arab News on the sidelines of Biban 24 in Riyadh, the Assistant Deputy Minister of Entrepreneurship at the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, Mohammed Al-Ariefy, highlighted that these programs will be unveiled at the forum in the coming days.

These initiatives are designed to empower startups with resources and opportunities that align with the Kingdom’s ambitions to lead tech-driven industries and accelerate growth in its digital economy.

“We’re planning to launch multiple programs at Biban that focus on partnerships within logistics and healthcare. One of these is a hackathon that we’re calling the Tech Challenges, which will be launched in the next two days at Biban,” Al-Ariefy said.

He continued: “But we utilize Biban, not only to launch or sign MoUs (memorandum of understanding), but to be a part of this great ecosystem, and (we are) thanking Monsha’at for their great support and organizing such beautiful events (that) are very vibrant and very active.”

He added that these tech challenges aim to identify real-world business challenges within specific sectors, like logistics and healthcare, that these companies or industries face.

Once these challenges are identified, the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology helps create or support startups aimed explicitly at developing solutions. 

Al-Ariefy further outlined a strategic focus within the ministry on growing the technology sector by supporting both large corporations and agile startups.

“The technology sector has big tech large corporations, big technology companies that are growing and performing very, very well, and we will continue to work with them and closely,” he said.

Al-Ariefy added: “Then we have the entrepreneurs. If we take one example, there are many startups that started just three or four years ago, and now they have 1,000 employees, and they are contributing to the GDP and to the technology sector and the Kingdom significantly.”

The ministry’s overarching vision is to grow the tech sector’s contribution to the economy, which requires a dual approach, retaining the growth momentum of established companies while also fostering an environment where startups can flourish.

Al-Ariefy underscored that startups in particular are seen as crucial because their speed and flexibility make it easier for them to expand and adapt, adding jobs and increasing economic output at a faster pace.

“Startups tend to scale faster, run (more) agile, so it is easier to grow faster and easier to help us increase the contribution to the economy from digital companies, as well as technology jobs,” he said.

Al-Ariefy highlighted the startup zone at Biban 24, which is focused on promoting and supporting new companies by providing them with opportunities to network, connect with potential investors and customers, and collaborate with other businesses.

The ministry also seeks to promote sector-agnostic technological advancement across real estate, finance, healthcare, and sustainable construction by enabling startups to adopt deep-tech and emerging systems that are reshaping these industries.

“We focus on the technology side. We focus on introducing more emerging and deep technology, providing support that helps startups or founders adopt those technologies, whether they choose to adopt it in proptech or in real estate, health, education or in any other sector,” he said.