Frankly Speaking: Is it over for Hezbollah?

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Updated 20 October 2024
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Frankly Speaking: Is it over for Hezbollah?

Frankly Speaking: Is it over for Hezbollah?
  • Middle East Institute Senior Fellow Firas Maksad says Lebanese militia wagered nation’s fate on Gaza war’s outcome
  • Says ongoing Israel-Hezbollah war’s domestic toll on a country still suffering from a financial collapse is “tremendous” 

DUBAI: Lebanon is heading for an extended conflict as Israel’s ground invasion enters its fourth week, raising concerns of deeper regional instability. Sounding this warning on the Arab News current affairs show “Frankly Speaking,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said the fighting could last far longer than initially anticipated.

“Unfortunately, we are looking at weeks, maybe months, of conflict ahead,” he said.

The clashes between Israeli forces and the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah have destabilized a country already grappling with economic collapse and political dysfunction.

Despite suffering heavy losses, particularly among its leadership, Hezbollah is far from defeated. “It’s certainly not game over. Hezbollah has been significantly weakened. It’s on its back foot,” Maksad said. “Hezbollah is fighting in a more decentralized way right now. We see that on the border. Their fighters are still … putting up a fight there.”

Israel sent troops and tanks into southern Lebanon on Oct. 1 in an escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, a spillover from the Israel-Hamas war that has been raging since Oct. 7 last year in Gaza.

It followed a series of major attacks on Hezbollah in September that degraded its capabilities and devastated its leadership, beginning with explosions of its communication devices.

This was followed by an Israeli aerial bombing campaign against Hezbollah throughout Lebanon, culminating in the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the militia’s firebrand leader, in an airstrike in Dahiyeh, south of Beirut, on Sept. 7.

According to Maksad, Hezbollah’s fragmented central command has left it increasingly reliant on Iranian support. “Hezbollah’s central command is increasingly likely to come under direct Iranian management and control of the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards,” he told Katie Jensen, the host of “Frankly Speaking.”

“Nasrallah had a margin of maneuver because of his role and stature in the community but also at a regional level, given the group’s involvement in Syria, Iraq, Yemen. That’s now gone. That very much then opens the way for more direct Iranian control, commanding control of Hezbollah in the months ahead.”

Maksad said the general sentiment in Lebanon, and even among Hezbollah’s own support base, is that the Iranian level of support has been at the very least disappointing.

“Public sentiment is one thing and the reality is sometimes another. Iran has sort of always showed some level of support to Hezbollah but has not been willing to stick its neck on the line, so to speak,” he said.

“It fights through its Arab proxies. It has a very clear aversion to be directly involved in a conflict with Israel because of its technological and military inferiority.”




Maksad, appearing on Frankly Speaking, highlighted a dire humanitarian situation, pointing to the more than one million internally displaced people who have fled from Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Lebanon. (AN Photo)

Maksad highlighted the dire humanitarian situation in Lebanon, pointing to the more than one million internally displaced people who have fled from Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Lebanon.

“About one-quarter of the population is under evacuation orders from the Israeli military,” he said. “The domestic toll for a relatively weak country suffering still from the weight of an unprecedented economic collapse in 2019, where most people lost their life savings in the banks, is tremendous.”

Maksad said the displacement has heightened sectarian tensions, as those displaced from pro-Hezbollah areas have moved into regions less sympathetic to the group.

“It does not bode well longer term for Lebanon, and the longer that this conflict drags, the more we have to (be concerned) about the bubbling of tensions and the instability that that might result in,” he said.

“Hezbollah has essentially wagered the country’s fate on (the outcome of the war) in Gaza and the fate of Hamas and its leaders,” he said.

Maksad also discussed the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict, suggesting that Israel is unlikely to engage in a long-term occupation of southern Lebanon.

“The Israelis fully understand the disadvantages of a lengthy occupation,” he said, recalling the heavy toll it took on the Israeli military when they last occupied Lebanon, a presence that ended in 2000.

“What I keep hearing is that Israel is looking to mop up Hezbollah infrastructure, tunnels and otherwise along the border, perhaps maybe even occupy, for a short period of time, the key villages, because the topography of south Lebanon is such that so many of these border villages are overlooking Israel and they want to take the higher ground.”

Having said that, Maksad predicted that Israel would pursue a diplomatic process, possibly through a new security arrangement based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, after dealing with Hezbollah’s infrastructure.

Hezbollah’s alignment with the cause of Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups has alienated significant segments of the Lebanese population, further straining the country’s already delicate sectarian fabric. The political leadership in Lebanon is consequently under immense pressure.

Maksad views Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, as a crucial player in mediating the crisis. However, at 86 years old, his ability to navigate such a complex situation is in question.




Maksad told host Katie Jensen that he views Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, as a crucial player in mediating the crisis. (AN Photo)

“He can’t do it alone,” Maksad said, noting that other key figures, such as Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Christian political leader Samir Geagea, will need to play constructive roles too. While acknowledging that Najib Mikati, the caretaker prime minister, is also a key player, he noted that since the assassination in 2005 of Rafik Hariri, the former prime minister, “there’s been a void in the Sunni community and it’s been hard to replace that.”

Maksad remarked that Berri, Jumblatt and Geagea were all around during the civil war in the 1980s and are still active players on the Lebanese political scene.

“They have long memories. They remember in 1982 when (Israel’s defense minister) Ariel Sharon initially announced a limited operation into Lebanon and then ended up invading all the way to Beirut, upending the political system, facilitating the election of a pro-Western president,” he said.

But very quickly Iran and Syria launched their comeback, assassinated Bachir Gemayel, the president at the time, and by 1985 had pushed the Israelis all the way back to the south. “Iran and Hezbollah have time  … they tend to be persistent and they have strategic patience,” Maksad said. “Berri and others remember that. So, they’re going to be moving very slowly, and they’re going to be taking their cues from the regional capitals of influence.”

Recent developments in the Middle East, particularly the killing by Israel on Oct. 16 of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, represent what Maksad describes as “a potential fork in the road.”

The killing could either escalate tensions across the region or serve as a turning point, allowing Israel to seek a diplomatic solution, according to Maksad.

“It can open up a diplomatic process where maybe Netanyahu can then reclaim the mantle of ‘Mr. Security,’ having killed Sinwar, and then begin to seriously negotiate a swap that would see the Israeli hostages released. And we all know that a ceasefire in Lebanon was premised on a diplomatic outcome in a ceasefire in Gaza. And, then, arguably, Lebanon can begin to move in that direction,” he said.

However, Iran is on “a completely separate track” and the Middle East could be in the midst of a “multi-stage conflict.”

Maksad added: “Once we get the past the Nov. 5 (US election) day, maybe Netanyahu will have a much freer hand for a second round of attacks that can then maybe take a toll on (Iran’s) nuclear infrastructure and the oil facilities in Iran. And then that opens up a Pandora’s box. So, we’re continuing to be in a very uncertain period for not only Gaza and Lebanon, but for Iran and the region at large.”

Discussing the stances of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states on the Middle East conflicts, Maksad said that these countries are understandably hedging their foreign policy priorities and relations.

“There’s been questions in recent years about the US security commitment to the GCC region, given an increasingly isolationist trend in the US, and talk about ending forever wars,” he said.

“That has rightfully caused countries like Saudi Arabia and others to want to diversify their foreign policy options. I think this is part of a broader strategic approach that the Kingdom has taken. I don’t see any significant changes yet, except that the war in Gaza and now Lebanon, the longer that drags on, the less likely that we’re going to see any progress on normalization with Israel.”

 


Iraq MPs to debate revised bill after outcry over underage marriage

Iraq MPs to debate revised bill after outcry over underage marriage
Updated 17 sec ago
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Iraq MPs to debate revised bill after outcry over underage marriage

Iraq MPs to debate revised bill after outcry over underage marriage
  • Proposed amendments would let people choose between religious or state regulations for family matters
  • A revised version of the bill sets the minimum age at 15 with court approval and retains ‘current conditions’
BAGHDAD: Iraq’s parliament will review contentious legal amendments Sunday, including a reworked family law bill that has sparked civil society outrage over fears of a resurgence in underage marriages.
The proposed amendments would let people choose between religious or state regulations for family matters, such as marriage, inheritance, divorce and child custody.
Critics fear the move could erode protections for Muslim women by lowering the legal age for marriage – currently set at 18, or 15 with the consent of legal guardians and a judge – and pave the way for the adoption of Islamic jurisprudence that could allow marriages as young as nine years old.
A revised version of the bill sets the minimum age at 15 with court approval and retains “current conditions,” according to MP Raed Al-Maliki, who backs the new proposals.
Couples could opt for Shiite Muslim or Sunni Muslim rules under the amendment.
If passed, clerics and lawyers would have four months to establish community-specific regulations. Parliament would then vote again to finalize the changes.
The draft law has already undergone two readings, with votes previously delayed.
An earlier version faced backlash from feminists and civil society groups.
In October, Amnesty International warned the amendments could legalize unregistered marriages – often used to bypass child marriage bans – and strip protections for divorced women.
The London-based rights group also voiced concerns that the amendments would strip women and girls of protections regarding divorce and inheritance.
Sunday’s parliament session will also include a vote on a general amnesty law.
Excluded from amnesty are convictions for terrorism and crimes like rape, incest, human trafficking and kidnapping.
The amnesty, covering 2016-2024, could apply to drug users but not traffickers, according to Maliki.
Cases based on evidence from “secret informants” may qualify for retrial.
The previous 2016 amnesty reportedly covered 150,000 people.

UNRWA chief says pausing aid delivery through key Gaza-Israel crossing

UNRWA chief says pausing aid delivery through key Gaza-Israel crossing
Updated 8 min 56 sec ago
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UNRWA chief says pausing aid delivery through key Gaza-Israel crossing

UNRWA chief says pausing aid delivery through key Gaza-Israel crossing
  • Delivery through Israeli-controlled Kerem Shalom crossing has been paused due to unsafe route and looting by armed gangs inside Gaza
The UN agency supporting Palestinian refugees is pausing the delivery of aid through the key Kerem Shalom crossing between Israel and Gaza because of security concerns, its chief said Sunday.
“We are pausing the delivery of aid through Kerem Shalom... The road out of this crossing has not been safe for months. On 16 November, a large convoy of aid trucks was stolen by armed gangs. Yesterday, we tried to bring in a few food trucks on the same route. They were all taken,” UNRWA head Philippe Lazzarini said in a post on X.

Turkish-backed Syrian militants blocked Kurdish plan, Turkish security sources say

Turkish-backed Syrian militants blocked Kurdish plan, Turkish security sources say
Updated 01 December 2024
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Turkish-backed Syrian militants blocked Kurdish plan, Turkish security sources say

Turkish-backed Syrian militants blocked Kurdish plan, Turkish security sources say
  • Militants blocked an attempt by Kurdish groups to establish a corridor connecting Tel Rifaat to northeastern Syria

ANKARA: Turkiye-backed Syrian militants who are fighting Syrian President Bashar Assad have blocked an attempt by Kurdish groups to establish a corridor connecting Tel Rifaat to northeastern Syria, Turkish security sources said on Sunday.
Turkiye refers to this group of rebels as Syrian National Army.
The sources said that Kurdish groups, including the PKK and YPG, had sought to take advantage of Syrian government forces withdrawing from parts of the country under the control of Assad’s forces.
The corridor would have linked the Kurdish-held northeastern regions to Tel Rifaat, a strategic area northwest of Aleppo.


Iran says to ‘firmly support’ Damascus after militant attacks

Iran says to ‘firmly support’ Damascus after militant attacks
Updated 36 min 48 sec ago
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Iran says to ‘firmly support’ Damascus after militant attacks

Iran says to ‘firmly support’ Damascus after militant attacks
  • Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi will leave Tehran for Damascus on Sunday

Tehran: Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi said Sunday he will leave Tehran for Damascus to deliver a message of support for Syria’s government and armed forces, state media said, after a lighting advance by rebels.
Tehran has been a staunch ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad during the civil war that broke out in 2011. Iran maintains it does not have combat troops in Syria, only officers who provide military advice and training.
Iran-backed Hezbollah, of Lebanon, has for years fought on the side of the Syrian government.
“I am going to Damascus to convey the message of the Islamic Republic to the Syrian government,” Araghchi said, emphasising Tehran will “firmly support the Syrian government and army,” the IRNA state news agency reported.
Islamist-led rebels on Saturday seized Aleppo’s airport and dozens of nearby towns after overrunning most of Syria’s second city Aleppo, a war monitor said.
Syria’s army confirmed that the rebels had entered “large parts” of the city of around two million people and said “dozens of men from our armed forces were killed.”
Araghchi again called the surprise rebel offensive a plot by the United States and Israel.
“The Syrian army will once again win over these terrorist groups as in the past,” the foreign minister added.
An Iranian news agency reported earlier that a general in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was killed in Syria on Thursday during the fighting.
On Saturday, Iran’s foreign ministry said its consulate in Aleppo had come under attack, but staff members were safe.
Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Araghchi who will visit Ankara for consultations with Turkish officials after his stop in Damascus.
Since 2020, the rebel enclave in Syria’s northwestern Idlib region has been subject to a Turkish- and Russian-brokered truce that had largely been holding despite repeated violations.
But the insurgents’ launch on Wednesday of a surprise offensive against the city of Aleppo shattered the truce, the same day a fragile ceasefire took effect in neighboring Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah.
The Syrian government had regained control of a large part of the country in 2015 with the support of its Russian and Iranian allies, and in 2016 the entire city of Aleppo.


Israeli strikes kill 15 in Gaza, Cairo holds fresh talks with Hamas

Israeli strikes kill 15 in Gaza, Cairo holds fresh talks with Hamas
Updated 01 December 2024
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Israeli strikes kill 15 in Gaza, Cairo holds fresh talks with Hamas

Israeli strikes kill 15 in Gaza, Cairo holds fresh talks with Hamas
  • The strike in the Muwasi area is a sprawling tent camp housing hundreds of thousands of displaced people
  • Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed over 44,000 Palestinians, more than half of them women and children

CAIRO: Israeli military strikes killed at least 15 Palestinians in Gaza on Sunday, medics said, as Israeli forces kept up bombardments across the enclave and blew up houses on its northern edge.
In the central Gaza camp of Nuseirat, an Israeli airstrike killed six people in a house, and another attack killed three in a home in Gaza City, medics said.
Two children were killed when a missile hit a tent encampment in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, while four other people were killed in an airstrike in Rafah, near the border with Egypt, medics told Reuters.
Residents said the military blew up clusters of houses in the northern Gaza areas of Jabalia, Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun, where Israeli forces have operated since October this year.
Palestinians say Israel’s operations on the northern edge of the enclave are part of a plan to clear people out through forced evacuations and bombardments to create a buffer zone — an allegation the army denies.
The military says it has killed hundreds of Hamas militants there as it fights to stop the faction regrouping almost 14 months since the war in Gaza started. Hamas’s armed wing says it has killed many Israeli forces in anti-tank rocket and mortar fire attacks, and in ambushes with explosive devices since the new operation started.

Prisoners, Talks
Two Palestinian detainees from Gaza have died in Israeli custody, prisoner advocacy groups said on Sunday, bringing the number of detainees reported killed since the start of the war to 47.
They named the two men as Mohammad Idris and Muath Rayyan, both in their 30s.
The Israel Prison Service said the cases were not under its jurisdiction and there was no immediate comment from the military which runs detention camps.
Israel has denied accusations from Palestinian and international human rights organizations that detainees have been mistreated and tortured in its jails and detention camps.
Meanwhile, Hamas leaders held talks in Cairo with Egyptian security officials to explore ways to reach a deal with Israel that could secure the release of hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners.
The visit was the first since the United States announced on Wednesday it would revive efforts in collaboration with Qatar, Egypt and Turkiye to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza.
Hamas is seeking an agreement that would end the war while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the war will only end when Hamas is eradicated.
Israel’s military campaign in Gaza has killed more than 44,300 people and displaced nearly all of the enclave’s population, Gaza officials say. Vast swathes of Gaza lie in ruins.
The conflict when Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israeli communities on Oct. 7, 2023, killing about 1,200 people and abducting more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli officials.