Oil Updates – crude steadies amid possible Middle East ceasefire

Oil Updates – crude steadies amid possible Middle East ceasefire
Brent crude futures rose 15 cents, or 0.21 percent, to $73.16 a barrel as at 10:05 a.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock
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Updated 26 November 2024
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Oil Updates – crude steadies amid possible Middle East ceasefire

Oil Updates – crude steadies amid possible Middle East ceasefire
  • Israel, Lebanon eye ceasefire in Israel-Hezbollah conflict
  • MidEast ceasefire cuts likelihood of US sanctions on Iran oil
  • Kyiv faces sustained Russian drone attacks

SINGAPORE: Oil prices edged higher in early trade on Tuesday after falling in the previous session as investors took stock of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, weighing on oil’s risk premium.

Brent crude futures rose 15 cents, or 0.21 percent, to $73.16 a barrel as at 10:05 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $69.09 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.22 percent.

Both benchmarks settled down $2 a barrel on Monday following reports that Lebanon and Israel had agreed to the terms of a deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, which triggered a crude oil selloff.

Market reaction to the ceasefire news was “over the top,” said senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva at Phillip Nova.

While the news calmed fear of disruption to Middle Eastern supply, the Israel-Hamas conflict “never actually disrupted supplies significantly to induce war premiums” this year, Sachdeva said.

“The vulnerability of oil prices to geopolitical headlines lacks foundational backup and, coupled with the inability to maintain recent gains, reflects weakening global demand for oil and suggests a volatile market ahead.”

Iran, which supports Hezbollah, is an OPEC member with production of around 3.2 million barrels per day, or 3 percent of global output.

A ceasefire in Lebanon would reduce the likelihood that the incoming US administration will impose stringent sanctions on Iranian crude oil, said ANZ analysts.

If President-elect Donald Trump’s administration returned to a maximum-pressure campaign on Tehran, Iranian exports could shrink by 1 million bpd, analysts have said, tightening global crude flows.

In Europe, Ukraine’s capital Kyiv was under a sustained Russian drone attack on Tuesday, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.

Hostilities between major oil producer Russia and Ukraine intensified this month after US President Joe Biden allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike deep into Russia in a significant reversal of Washington’s policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Elsewhere, OPEC+ may consider leaving its current oil output cuts in place from Jan. 1 at its next meeting on Sunday, Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov told Reuters, as the producer group had already postponed hikes amid demand worries.

On Monday, Trump said he would sign an executive order imposing a 25 percent tariff on all products coming into the US from Mexico and Canada. It was unclear whether this would include crude oil.

The vast majority of Canada’s 4 million bpd of crude exports go to the US Analysts have said it is unlikely Trump would impose tariffs on Canadian oil, which cannot be easily replaced since it differs from grades that the US produces.

“Contrary to today’s sell-off in risk assets, I think the tariff announcements are actually risk-positive because they are lower than consensus expectations,” said market analyst Tony Sycamore at IG.

Trump’s proposed additional 10 percent tariffs on Chinese imports are “well below” the 60 percent level he threatened pre-election, Sycamore said.

For the time being, markets are eyeing Trump’s plan to increase US oil production, which has been near record levels throughout 2022 to 2024 and absorbed supply disruption from geopolitical crises and sanctions, Phillip Nova’s Sachdeva said. 


COP16: Saudi Arabia vows to intensify action and collaboration to tackle drought and land degradation. 

COP16: Saudi Arabia vows to intensify action and collaboration to tackle drought and land degradation. 
Updated 36 sec ago
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COP16: Saudi Arabia vows to intensify action and collaboration to tackle drought and land degradation. 

COP16: Saudi Arabia vows to intensify action and collaboration to tackle drought and land degradation. 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s incoming COP16 president vowed to work with the international community to tackle drought and desertification on the first day of a UN conference in Riyadh.

Abdulrahman Al-Fadli, the Kingdom’s minister of environment, used his speech at the event – being held from Dec. 2 to 13 under the theme “Our Land. Our Future” – to reflect on the challenges facing the global community.

Outgoing COP15 president, Côte d'Ivoire’s Alain-Richard Donwahi, handed over leadership of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification with a call for continued urgency, while Ibrahim Thiaw, executive secretary of the UNCCD, warned that close to 40 percent of the planet’s surface is affected by land degradation. 

Al-Fadli said he was “honoured” to have been elected president, adding: “We look forward to intensifying action under this convention to face the challenges and promote integration between various international environment organizations.” 

Reflecting on the challenges ahead, he emphasized the Kingdom’s commitment to combat desertification, adding: “The Middle East is one of the regions most impacted by land degradation, drought, and desertification. We seek to address environmental challenges in partnership with the international community.” 

The environment minister highlighted Vision 2030 as a cornerstone for the Kingdom’s green agenda, saying: “Protecting the environment and natural resources is essential for achieving sustainable development and quality of life.”

Saudi Arabia’s environmental commitment  

Al-Fadli detailed the Kingdom’s objectives, including the Saudi Green Initiative, which aims to restore 40 million hectares of degraded land and increase national reserves by 30 percent by 2030.  

He added: “We have established initiatives and programs to limit pollution, develop vegetation cover, and improve waste management and meteorological services.” 

Addressing broader approaches, Al-Fadli highlighted that Saudi Arabia has adopted the National Environment Strategy and established a fund for environmental causes, as well as five specialized centers. 

He underlined efforts in renewable energy: “We aim to ensure more than 50 percent of our energy mix comes from renewable sources by 2030, reducing carbon emissions significantly.” 

Global and local perspectives 

Mayor of Riyadh Faisal bin Abdul Aziz bin Ayyaf highlighted the interconnected nature of environmental challenges, saying: “No country or city can address these challenges alone. Through international cooperation and collective work, we can find innovative solutions to restore our land and develop our cities.” 

He added: “We coordinate initiatives to ensure Riyadh can be a model for the world.” 

Amina Mohammed, deputy secretary-general of the UN, called for urgent global action, particularly around strengthening international cooperation on land degradation, ramping up restoration work, and mobilizing finance at scale. 

“Land sustains us, and we are destroying it. Action cannot wait,” she said. 

Amina Mohammed, deputy secretary-general of the UN. Screenshot

Outgoing president’s reflections 

COP15 president Donwahi praised Saudi Arabia’s capability to continue the battle against land degradation, saying there is no doubt in the Kingdom’s ability to  “elevate our shared legacy even further” as it stands at the forefront of challenges such as sandstorms and drought. 

Stressing the ongoing nature of the mission, he said: “We have remained optimistic. However, the situation remains urgent. We must go further and faster.” 

Donwahi acknowledged the progress made by previous COPs, particularly the inclusion of youth, saying: “For the first time, we have appointed a special youth envoy, a strong symbolic gesture that demonstrates our commitment to young people.” 

International collaboration 

Ibrahim Thiaw, executive secretary of the UNCCD, used his speech to warn that close to 40 percent of the planet’s surface is affected by land degradation. 

“This disease is progressing at a terrifying pace,” he added. 

Thiaw expressed his “deepest gratitude” to Saudi Arabia for its “vision in elevating the global land restoration and drought resilience agenda.” 

The conference also looked ahead to COP17 in Mongolia, with Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene expressing his country’s readiness.


Oil Updates – crude rises on upbeat China data, shaky Israel-Lebanon ceasefire

Oil Updates – crude rises on upbeat China data, shaky Israel-Lebanon ceasefire
Updated 02 December 2024
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Oil Updates – crude rises on upbeat China data, shaky Israel-Lebanon ceasefire

Oil Updates – crude rises on upbeat China data, shaky Israel-Lebanon ceasefire

SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose on Monday, supported by strong factory activity in China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, and heightened tensions in the Middle East as Israel resumed attacks on Lebanon despite a ceasefire agreement.

Brent crude futures climbed 57 cents, or 0.79 percent, to $72.41 a barrel by 10:00 a.m. Saudi time while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $68.58 a barrel, up 58 cents, or 0.85 percent.

“Oil prices have managed to stabilize into the new week, with the continued expansion in China’s manufacturing activities reflecting some degree of policy success from recent stimulus efforts,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.

This offered slight relief that oil demand from China may hold for now, he added.

A private-sector survey showed China’s factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in five months in November, boosting Chinese firms’ optimism just as US President-elect Donald Trump ramps up his trade threats.

Still, traders are eyeing developments in Syria, weighing if they could widen tension across the Middle East, Yeap said.

A truce between Israel and Lebanon took effect on Wednesday, but each side accused the other of breaching the ceasefire.

In a statement, the Lebanese health ministry said several people were wounded in two Israeli strikes in south Lebanon. Air strikes also intensified in Syria, as President Bashar Assad vowed to crush insurgents who had swept into the city of Aleppo.

Last week, both benchmarks suffered a weekly decline of more than 3 percent, on easing concerns over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and forecasts of surplus supply in 2025, even as OPEC+ is expected to extend output cuts.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, postponed its meeting to Dec. 5 and is discussing delaying its oil output hike due to start in January, OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week.

This week’s meeting will decide policy for the early months of 2025.

“The extension of output cuts would allow OPEC+ more time to assess the impact of Trump’s policy announcements with regards to tariffs and energy and also to see what China’s response will be,” said Tony Sycamore, IG’s Sydney-based market analyst.

Since the group’s production hike had been widely expected, the market’s focus may be on the extent of delay to sway crude prices, said IG’s Yeap, adding: “An indefinite delay may be the best case for oil prices, given that earlier rounds of delays by a month or so have failed to drive higher oil prices in line with what OPEC+ intended.”

Brent is expected to average $74.53 per barrel in 2025 as economic weakness in China clouds the demand picture and ample global supplies outweigh support from an expected delay to a planned OPEC+ output hike, a Reuters monthly oil price poll showed on Friday.

That is the seventh straight downward revision in the 2025 consensus for the global benchmark, which has averaged $80 per barrel so far in 2024.


COP16: Largest-ever UN meeting on desertification starts in Riyadh

COP16: Largest-ever UN meeting on desertification starts in Riyadh
Updated 02 December 2024
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COP16: Largest-ever UN meeting on desertification starts in Riyadh

COP16: Largest-ever UN meeting on desertification starts in Riyadh

RIYADH: The largest-ever meeting of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification has kicked off in Riyadh, with bolstering global drought resilience one of the key goals.

Running from Dec. 2 to 13, the first few days of COP16 are set to see a number of high-profile summits, ministerial dialogues, and announcements to address the pressing challenges associated with land degradation, degradation and drought. 

French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to be among the attendees, as is the President of the World Bank Ajay Banga. 

The opening day of the event will see Saudi Arabia use its presidency of the event to launch the Riyadh Global Drought Resilience Initiative, in a bid to accelerate international action in this area.

In tandem, the Saudi Green Initiative Forum, running from Dec. 2 to 3, will include hundreds of policymakers, business leaders and subject matter experts from across the world in a dedicated pavilion in the COP16 Green Zone.

The Second International Forum on Greening Technologies is also set to take place in the Green Zone between Dec 6-8, including dozens of tailored sessions to explore solutions, innovations, and lessons learned from global greening projects, alongside showcasing the scientific research associated with restoration projects around the world.

10.43 a.m. - Private sector funding crucial to tackling degradation, UN executive says

Ibrahim Thiaw, executive secretary of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification. UNCCD

Restoring the world’s degraded land and holding back its deserts will require at least $2.6 trillion in investment by the end of the decade, the UN executive overseeing global talks on the issue told Reuters, quantifying the cost for the first time.

More frequent and severe droughts as a result of climate change combined with the food needs of a rising population meant societies were at greater risk of upheaval unless action was taken, Ibrahim Thiaw said.

A large chunk of the around $1 billion a day that is required will need to come from the private sector, said Thiaw, who is executive secretary of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification.

“The bulk of the investments on land restoration in the world is coming from public money. And that is not right. Because essentially the main driver of land degradation in the world is food production... which is in the hands of the private sector,” Thiaw said, adding that as of now it provides only 6 percent of the money needed to rehabilitate damaged land.

“How come that one hand is degrading the land and the other hand has the charge of restoring it and repairing it?,” said Thiaw, whilst acknowledging the responsibility of governments to set and enforce good land-use policies and regulations.

With a growing population meaning that the world needs to produce twice as much food on the same amount of land, private sector investment would be critical, he said.

To hit $2.6 trillion — approaching the annual economic output of France — the world needs to close an annual gap of $278 billion, after just $66 billion was invested in 2022, the UN said.

 

10:36 a.m. - Abdulrahman Abdulmohsen Al-Fadley elected as COP16 president

 


Tripartite deal signed to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector

Tripartite deal signed to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector
Updated 01 December 2024
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Tripartite deal signed to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector

Tripartite deal signed to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector

JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector is poised for significant growth following a new tripartite partnership designed to enhance housing finance and establish a secondary mortgage market.

Under the patronage of Minister of Municipal and Rural Affairs Majid Al-Hogail a memorandum of understanding was signed on Sunday by the Real Estate Development Fund, Saudi Real Estate Refinance Co., and Al-Ahli Bank. The agreement aims to support the Kingdom’s housing sector and accelerate the development of a secondary mortgage market.

The MoU, which involves the Public Investment Fund’s fully owned SRC and Al-Ahli Bank, marks an important step in fostering closer collaboration between financial institutions. As part of the agreement, Al-Ahli Bank will continue to create mortgage portfolios, which will be refinanced through the SRC, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

This partnership is expected to fast-track the creation of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), both domestically and internationally. By doing so, it will help realize the goals of the Kingdom's housing program, promoting the development of a sustainable and integrated real estate financing system. The initiative will also contribute to expanding housing options for Saudi citizens.

Recent data from the Saudi Central Bank shows that banks in Saudi Arabia disbursed SR60.92 billion ($16.24 billion) in residential mortgages during the first nine months of 2024, marking a 4.88 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Of this amount, SR38.85 billion was allocated for home purchases, accounting for 64 percent of the total mortgage loans. However, the share of loans for house purchases declined slightly by 3.38 percent year on year, dropping from 69 percent in 2023.

Demand for apartments has surged in response to urbanization and demographic shifts. Apartments now account for 31 percent of all mortgages, up from 25 percent last year, with lending for apartment purchases reaching SR18.6 billion — an increase of 26.8 percent. Loans for land purchases also grew by 8.26 percent to reach SR3.5 billion, underscoring continued interest in land investment across the Kingdom.

The new partnership aims to provide liquidity in the market, ensuring a continuous flow of mortgage financing and supporting the development of the secondary mortgage market in Saudi Arabia.

At the signing ceremony, Al-Hogail also launched a new financing offer from Al-Ahli Bank, with rates starting as low as 2.59% for those interested in purchasing units under construction.

Mansour bin Madi, CEO of the Real Estate Development Fund, emphasized that the strategic partnership with SRC and financial institutions aims to improve the residential mortgage market and reduce financing costs for Saudi families. He highlighted that the initiative aligns with the objectives of the “Sakani” program and the broader real estate goals of Saudi Vision 2030.

Majeed Al-Abduljabbar, CEO of SRC, noted: “This partnership with Al-Ahli Bank is a crucial step in advancing the mortgage financing market in the Kingdom. Through this collaboration, we aim to offer innovative solutions that enhance liquidity, allowing financial institutions to provide mortgage financing tailored to market needs, while expanding property options for citizens.”

Tareq Al-Sadhan, CEO of Al-Ahli Bank, affirmed that the partnership with SRC demonstrates the bank’s commitment to fostering growth in the housing sector and contributing to the development of a dynamic secondary mortgage market. This, he added, will support Saudi Arabia’s broader economic diversification efforts.


Closing Bell: Saudi main index rises to close at 11,741

Closing Bell: Saudi main index rises to close at 11,741
Updated 01 December 2024
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index rises to close at 11,741

Closing Bell: Saudi main index rises to close at 11,741

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose on Sunday, gaining 100.43 points, or 0.86 percent, to close at 11,741.74.  

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR4.63 billion ($1.23 billion), as 159 of the stocks advanced and 64 retreated.   

On the other hand, the Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu lost 221.58 points, or 0.73 percent, to close at 30,173.12. This comes as 34 of the listed stocks advanced while 48 retreated.   

The MSCI Tadawul Index gained 11.24 points, or 0.77 percent, to close at 1,471.59.   

The best-performing stock of the day was Gulf Insurance Group, whose share price surged 8.35 percent to SR31.80.  

Other top performers included Saudi Arabian Cooperative Insurance Co., whose share price rose 4.61 percent to SR15.44, and Lazurde Co. for Jewelry, whose share price increased 4.26 percent to SR13.70.

Tamkeen Human Resource Co. recorded the biggest drop, falling 11.34 percent to SR68.

Etihad Etisalat Co. also saw its stock prices fall 3.08 percent to SR53.50.

Meanwhile, Northern Region Cement Co. also saw its stock prices dropping 1.86 percent to SR8.98.

On the announcements front, Nice One Beauty Digital Marketing Co. has announced plans to raise up to SR1.2 billion by offering 30 percent of its shares on the Saudi Stock Exchange.

SNB Capital Co. will act as the offering’s lead manager, financial advisor, book-runner, and underwriter.

EFG Hermes Saudi Arabia will join as joint financial advisors, book-runners, and underwriters. The institutional book-building period will run from Dec. 1 to 8.

According to a Tadawul statement, the price range for the offering has been set between SR32 and SR35 per share. The offering is comprised of 34.650 million ordinary shares, representing 30 percent of the company’s capital after the issuance of new shares and capital increase.

The minimum number of offer shares to be applied for participating parties is 100,000, while the maximum is 5.7 million. The participation in the book-building process is confined to the participating parties in accordance with the Instructions for Book Building Process and Allocation Method in the initial public offering issued by the Capital Market Authority. 

The final price per offer share will be determined after the completion of the book-building process, to be followed by the individual subscriber’s subscription process. The final allocation of the offer shares will be made after the end of the subscription period for individual investors.