Saudi Arabia, UAE banks to post strong credit growth in 2025: Fitch Ratings

Saudi Arabia, UAE banks to post strong credit growth in 2025: Fitch Ratings
Saudi banks will see growth that outstrips their GCC counterparts, according to Fitch Ratings
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Updated 10 December 2024
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Saudi Arabia, UAE banks to post strong credit growth in 2025: Fitch Ratings

Saudi Arabia, UAE banks to post strong credit growth in 2025: Fitch Ratings
  • Fitch Ratings projected banks in the Kingdom will witness a financing growth of around 12% in 2025
  • Report said that the gradual execution of giga-projects should continue to underpin banks’ interest

RIYADH: Banks operating in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to post strong credit growth in 2025, driven by high crude prices and the expansion of the non-oil economy, according to an analysis. 

In its latest report, Fitch Ratings projected that banks in the Kingdom will witness a financing growth of around 12 percent in 2025, about twice the average of the Gulf Cooperation Council region. 

The US-based agency added that corporates will account for almost 65 percent to 70 percent of new financing among Saudi banks in 2025. 

The analysis echoes similar views to those put forward by Moody’s in November, which predicted that Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 initiative, aimed at diversifying the Kingdom’s economy, could accelerate the growth of the banking sector in the country. 




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In its report, Fitch Ratings said: “The operating environment for banks in the Kingdom is underpinned by high oil prices and government spending, which support the country’s giga-projects and the Vision 2030 strategy, resulting in solid non-oil gross domestic product growth.”

It added: “Fitch Ratings forecasts real non-oil GDP growth to average a still strong 4.5 percent over 2024–2025, compared to 5 percent over 2022–2023. We expect the sector’s financial metrics to remain strong in 2025.” 

The report said that the gradual execution of giga-projects should continue to underpin banks’ interest in this segment, although the current share of giga-project-related financing is minor for most rated banks.

However, the credit rating agency warned that the net foreign assets of banks in the Kingdom could continue to be negative in 2025 due to high-cost domestic term deposits and increased demand for foreign currencies. 

Regional outlook

According to the analysis, banks in the Middle East region are expected to maintain sound profitability, solid liquidity, and adequate capital buffers for their risk profiles in 2025, while asset quality should remain stable. 

In November, a report released by S&P Global said that banks in the GCC are expected to maintain strong asset quality, profitability, and ample liquidity through 2025 thanks to solid capitalization and well-managed balance sheets. 

S&P Global, however, warned that heightened geopolitical tensions and a sharp drop in oil prices could negatively affect the creditworthiness of financial institutions in the region. 




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UAE

Fitch said that banks in the UAE will enjoy favorable business and operating conditions in 2025 thanks to high oil prices and increased economic activities. 

The analysis added that banks in the Emirates will achieve a loan growth of around 9 percent in 2025, a figure well above the GCC average but slightly below its Arab neighbor, Saudi Arabia. 

“We expect UAE banks’ funding and liquidity to remain strong and deposits will continue growing in line with lending. Liquidity will continue to be supported by large government deposits, driven by the sovereign’s solid net external assets position, still-strong fiscal metrics and recurring hydrocarbon revenues,” added Fitch. 

Egypt

The report highlighted the growth of the banking sector in Egypt and said that general business and operating conditions for financial institutions in the country are expected to improve next year. 

According to Fitch, falling inflation, improved investor confidence, and healthy foreign currency liquidity conditions are some of the major factors that could strengthen the banking sector in Egypt in 2025. 




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Bahrain

In Bahrain, credit growth among banks is expected to be reasonable, albeit still modest, compared to GCC peers, at around 4.5 percent in 2025. 

“Fitch expects the business environment for banks in Bahrain to remain adequate, underpinned by some operating condition improvements. Lower lending rates should ease pressures on the sector’s corporate loan books, in particular real estate and contracting,” said the report. 

The credit rating agency predicted stable asset quality metrics for Bahraini banks in 2025, with lower rates providing relief to corporate borrowers and households and the sector profitability to remain sound.

Kuwait

According to the report, the banking sector’s credit growth in Kuwait is expected to hover between 5 percent and 6 percent in 2025, albeit hindered by still-high interest rates and only moderate real non-oil GDP growth. 

The analysis revealed that liquidity among Kuwaiti banks will remain strong next year due to large and stable deposits from government-related entities and gains from high oil prices. 

Oman

Fitch revealed that Oman’s Vision 2040 program aimed at diversifying the country’s economy could open more opportunities for banks in the future. 

“Oman’s Vision 2040 will provide growth opportunities for banks and ensure a healthy lending pipeline in key sectors of the economy, as well as reduce banks’ reliance on government spending in the long run. However, the absence of a deep capital market limits access for corporates to funding sources other than the country’s domestic banks,” said the study. 

The analysis added that liquidity among Omani banks will continue to be supported by stable government and government-related entity deposits, while high oil prices are expected to support the growth in customer deposits. 

Qatar

In Qatar, the general business and operating environment for banks are projected to improve in 2025. 

The report revealed that the credit growth among Qatari banks could pick up to 5.5 percent next year but will remain below that of Saudi Arabia and the UAE due to their particularly strong operating conditions. 

Jordan

In Jordan, the market conditions of banks are expected to remain challenging next year, while the sector will witness a lending growth of 3.5 percent. 

“The operating environment for banks in Jordan remains challenging due to below-potential and structurally weak real GDP growth, and high unemployment and geopolitical risks, which negatively affect tourism and exports,” concluded Fitch.


OPEC forecasts 2026 oil demand growth of 1.43m barrels a day

OPEC forecasts 2026 oil demand growth of 1.43m barrels a day
Updated 15 January 2025
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OPEC forecasts 2026 oil demand growth of 1.43m barrels a day

OPEC forecasts 2026 oil demand growth of 1.43m barrels a day

LONDON: OPEC on Wednesday predicted that global oil demand in 2026 will increase at a rate similar to this year’s growth.

However, the organization lowered its 2024 demand projection for the sixth time, citing ongoing economic weakness in China, the world’s largest oil importer.

The 2026 forecast aligns with OPEC’s long-term view that global oil consumption will continue to rise over the next two decades. This contrasts with the International Energy Agency, which expects oil demand to peak within this decade as the world transitions to cleaner energy sources.

In its latest monthly report, OPEC projected that oil demand will increase by 1.43 million barrels per day in 2026, a growth rate nearly identical to the 1.45 million bpd expected for this year. The 2026 forecast marks the first time OPEC has provided a projection for that year in its monthly update.

OPEC noted that transportation fuels will be the primary driver of oil demand growth in 2026, with air travel expected to continue expanding. Both international and domestic flights are expected to see steady increases, according to the report.

The report also revised its 2024 demand growth forecast down to 1.5 million bpd, compared to the 1.61 million bpd forecast in the previous month. This marks the sixth consecutive reduction for 2024, following an initial forecast of 2.25 million bpd in July 2024.

OPEC’s demand outlook remains at the higher end of industry expectations.

Earlier on Wednesday, the IEA forecasted a slower pace of global oil demand growth in 2025, predicting an increase of 1.05 million bpd.


Hexagon invests in future mining talent through partnership with King Saud University

Hexagon invests in future mining talent through partnership with King Saud University
Updated 15 January 2025
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Hexagon invests in future mining talent through partnership with King Saud University

Hexagon invests in future mining talent through partnership with King Saud University

RIYADH: Industrial technology company Hexagon has made a significant investment in King Saud University to help train the next generation of mining talent in the Middle East, according to a top official.

Speaking to Arab News on the second day of the Future Minerals Forum, which is being held in Riyadh from Jan. 14 to 16, Dave Goddard, executive vice president of mining at Hexagon, explained that the training would utilize advanced digital tools and software.

The agreement, finalized during the forum, builds on Hexagon’s ongoing collaboration with mining ventures in the region. This follows a landmark deal in 2024 with Saudi Arabian Mining Co. to launch the region’s first-of-its-kind digital mine.

The initiative also aligns with the Kingdom’s broader efforts to position mining as the third pillar of its industrial economy.

“One of the things that’s important for us is to give back to the mining community and ensure the long-term viability of the mining industry,” Goddard said. “And the only way that happens is people retire every year, and college students come into the environment as well.”

He continued: “So, what we’ve done is we’ve made a partnership with the universities in order to provide them some digital tools that the mining companies use, so that when they graduate, and they go into industry, they are already digital natives. They already have the skills and attributes necessary to enter into the digital mining realm. And so that’s what we’re really doing: investing in the future of mining by investing in the future leaders of mining.”

Goddard also elaborated on the firm’s partnership with Ma’aden.

“We have a partnership agreement with Ma’aden, our primary customer here in Saudi Arabia. And we have a partnership with them to build a digital mine, where we’re providing the tools, materials, and software to digitalize their mining operations in order for them to be an optimal miner and a world-class miner, which they currently are,” he said.

Regarding the mining process, Goddard described it as breaking down large rocks into smaller pieces to extract valuable minerals or compounds.

“You have a mine plan that has a digital representation of what that ore looks like inside the ground, and then you have a digital representation of the truck that is carrying that mineral around, and you have a digital representation of the drill that is drilling through the material,” Goddard explained.

“When you take that software and those digitalization parameters, what you’re really doing is reflecting the real world in a digital model and allowing yourself to model an optimal process to extract that real-world material in a digital manner,” he added.

He also mentioned the company’s drill assist product, which helps equipment drill 30 percent faster than a human.

“In terms of a fleet management system, we can provide the same material flow rate using 20% fewer trucks if you use our fleet management system. So, if you think about it, there’s not only the cost savings, but there’s also an energy savings because you’re using less material,” Goddard said.

“And that energy savings correlates to less impact on the environment, a lower carbon emission, and a smaller carbon footprint. So, we help our mining customers address not only their operational challenges but also their sustainability challenges as well,” he added.

Goddard further highlighted how mining influences global wealth and standards of living.

“Knowing that the world around us would not exist without mining and the natural materials that mining provides, as the wealth of the world grows and people enjoy richer lifestyles, demand for mineral resources will increase. And we want to be in the middle of that, providing the tools necessary to optimize the extraction of those resources,” he said.

He also discussed Hexagon's approach to providing digital solutions for mining operations.

“What we have are two different portfolios,” Goddard explained. “One is a planning portfolio that allows mining companies to optimize the extraction sequence in order to maximize the material that comes out of the mine. The second portfolio is our operations portfolio, which helps them optimize equipment and material movement during the actual mining operations and extraction activities.”


Saudi Arabia, Australia set to enhance mining ties, says business council head

Saudi Arabia, Australia set to enhance mining ties, says business council head
Updated 15 January 2025
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Saudi Arabia, Australia set to enhance mining ties, says business council head

Saudi Arabia, Australia set to enhance mining ties, says business council head
  • Bilateral trade between Saudi Arabia and Australia has grown significantly, reaching $4 billion
  • Business council is actively working to further increase this figure

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia and Australia are poised to enhance cooperation in the mining sector with the launch of an inaugural bilateral forum this year, a senior official has announced. 

Speaking on the sidelines of the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh, Sam Jamsheedi, the president of the Australian Saudi Business Council and Forum, highlighted the event’s potential to boost bilateral exploration and investment opportunities in the mining industry. 

He said that the inaugural Australia-Saudi Mining Forum would take place this year, marking a significant step in enhancing cooperation between the two countries.  

“One of the main pillars of Saudi Vision 2030 is mining and resources. And one of Australia’s biggest industries is mining. This forum is dedicated solely to mining opportunities for both sides, which is also supported by both governments as well. I believe this forum would kind of ignite another cycle of boom in both nations’ productivity,” Jamsheedi said. 

Jamsheedi pointed to Australia’s strong presence at the FMF, with over 300 Australian participants attending and the country hosting its first pavilion at the event. 

He added that events like FMF are crucial to elevate and strengthen the bilateral relationship between Australia and the Kingdom.  

Jamsheedi also elaborated on the Australian Saudi Business Council and Forum’s efforts over the past two years to facilitate trade and investment between the two nations. 

“It is the official business council for both sides. Our mandate is to represent Saudi Arabian opportunities in Australia and also be the voice for Australians who come to Saudi Arabia,” he said. 

Jamsheedi added that bilateral trade between Saudi Arabia and Australia has grown significantly, reaching $4 billion, with a $600 million boost in the past year due to the council’s support. 

The business council is actively working to further increase this figure, focusing on key sectors such as mining, agriculture, food and beverages, infrastructure, technology, and services. 

As Saudi Arabia aims to attract $100 billion in foreign direct investments by 2030, Jamsheedi emphasized the importance of hosting more events like FMF and raising awareness among Australian investors about the opportunities in the Kingdom. 


Partnership with Saudi Arabia will address global critical mineral challenges, says UK minister 

Partnership with Saudi Arabia will address global critical mineral challenges, says UK minister 
Updated 15 January 2025
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Partnership with Saudi Arabia will address global critical mineral challenges, says UK minister 

Partnership with Saudi Arabia will address global critical mineral challenges, says UK minister 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia and the UK are deepening mining ties as the British government seeks to secure critical minerals for industries such as artificial intelligence and emerging technologies. 

On Jan. 14, the two nations signed an agreement to collaborate on mineral resource development, emphasizing sustainable practices, technology transfer, and economic growth. 

In an interview with Arab News on the sidelines of the ongoing Future Minerals Forum, the UK Minister for Industry, Sarah Jones, highlighted the growing collaboration between the two Kingdoms. 

She emphasized the importance of partnerships in the critical minerals sector, which are vital for advancements in AI, green energy transitions, and emerging technologies. 

“The quantity of critical minerals we’re going to need in the future is significantly bigger than we have today, and I think Saudi Arabia has taken quite a leadership role with the Future Minerals Forum, convening so many countries to come together and talk about this,” Jones said. 

The minister outlined the challenges and opportunities as both countries work to address the surging global demand for essential minerals. She expressed confidence in the potential of the UK-Saudi partnership to tackle these challenges effectively. 

The UK’s expertise in mining finance, as well as it universities — renowned for research and technical knowledge — position it as a valuable partner for Saudi Arabia in mining and exploration.

Jones emphasized that Britain’s focus on mining finance, combined with its global academic reputation, strengthens the collaboration. 

“We wanted to have a relationship where we work together on some of these challenges, and I think this is the start of what will be a strengthening relationship going forward,” she said. 

The minister expressed excitement about future collaborations, including sustainable mining practices, innovative financing structures, and technological advancements to meet the growing demand for critical minerals. 

The UK government, under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, is taking a proactive approach to shaping its industrial future, especially in sectors integral to the global green transition and technological progress. 

“We’re looking at things slightly differently,” said Jones. “We’re trying to be more proactive in devising what are the industries of the future that we need in the UK. Where do we get our supply chains from? How do we make sure we’re secure?” 

As part of its new industrial strategy, Britain is prioritizing critical minerals, recognizing their essential role in advanced manufacturing, green energy, and AI. 

Jones highlighted the government’s determination to position the UK as a key player in the global minerals market and equip domestic industries for future demands. 

“We’re setting the directions of all of our companies and our businesses know the sectors that we want to grow and the direction that we want to go in,” she said. 

To support this strategy, the British government has established funding mechanisms like the National Wealth Fund and UK Export Finance to mitigate risks associated with critical minerals mining, technology development, and sustainable practices. 

In addition to the UK-Saudi partnership, Jones discussed opportunities for joint investment in mining projects in third countries. 

She proposed collaboration on initiatives in Africa, where both nations have significant interests and could combine resources to meet growing mineral demands. 

“Can the UK and Saudi Arabia have a project in an African country? We have several kinds of ideas, thoughts that we could do together,” she said. 

Jones also highlighted the rising interest in mining within the UK, citing developments such as lithium and tin mining in Cornwall, which could support both the UK’s industrial needs and the global green transition. 

The conversation touched on the ethical and environmental challenges associated with mining. Jones acknowledged the industry’s troubled history, including issues of worker mistreatment, environmental damage, and resource mismanagement. 

As demand for minerals grows, she stressed the need for mining practices to evolve, becoming more sustainable and equitable. 

“Historically, mining has been difficult in terms of the way that countries and people have been treated,” Jones said. “We’ve got to make sure where mining is sustainable and helping the countries that are supporting those mines, we have to make sure we’re creating wealth there and these things are hard, and that’s why countries need to work together.” 

She concluded by emphasizing the importance of global cooperation in addressing critical mineral challenges. 

“I think we can talk to each other between Saudi Arabia and ourselves about how some of these funding mechanisms work, how we support each other’s companies, and how we develop and help other countries to, to develop what they need as well. But it’s a huge challenge and that’s why we’re here,” Jones said.


Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green at 12,212

Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green at 12,212
Updated 15 January 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green at 12,212

Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green at 12,212

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose on Wednesday, gaining 39.49 points, or 0.32 percent, to close at 12,212.24.

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR7.17 billion ($1.91 billion), as 116 of the listed stocks advanced, while 114 retreated.  

The MSCI Tadawul Index increased by 9.44 points, or 0.62 percent, to close at 1,526.65.

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu dipped, losing 17.28 points, or 0.06 percent, to close at 31,299.81.

This comes as 47 of the listed stocks advanced, while 34 retreated.

The best-performing stock was Nice One Beauty Digital Marketing Co., with its share price surging by 9.94 percent to SR59.70.

Other top performers included the Power and Water Utility Co. for Jubail and Yanbu, which saw its share price rise by 5.77 percent to SR55, and United International Transportation Co., which saw a 4.86 percent increase to SR84.10.

The worst performer of the day was Astra Industrial Group, whose share price fell by 5.46 percent to SR190.60.

Saudi Reinsurance Co. and Riyadh Cables Group Co. also saw declines, with their shares dropping by 3.53 percent and 3.05 percent to SR57.40 and SR146, respectively.

On the announcements front, Al Rajhi Bank has successfully completed its offer of US dollar-denominated additional Tier 1 capital sustainable sukuk, raising $1.5 billion. 

The issuance, with a par value of $200,000 per sukuk and totaling 7,500 sukuk units, will be settled on Jan. 21, according to a Tadawul statement.

Offering an annual return of 6.25 percent, the perpetual sukuk includes a callable feature after five years. It will be listed on the London Stock Exchange’s International Securities Market, adhering to Regulation S under the US Securities Act of 1933. 

The sukuk is aimed at eligible investors within Saudi Arabia and internationally, contributing to the bank’s sustainable financing initiatives.

Al Rajhi ended today’s trading session surging by 0.21 percent to SR96.20.