Wake up and smell the climate crisis: coffee prices set to increase in 2025

Wake up and smell the climate crisis: coffee prices set to increase in 2025
Cupping different coffees varieties with WCR member company, Counter Culture, as a part of the International Multilocation Variety Trial. (Counter Culture Coffee)
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Updated 21 December 2024
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Wake up and smell the climate crisis: coffee prices set to increase in 2025

Wake up and smell the climate crisis: coffee prices set to increase in 2025
  • Price rises come as the global coffee industry battled a perfect storm of challenges, with climate change, supply chain disruptions, and global market forces all having an impactThe price rises came as the global coffee industry battled a perfect stor

RIYADH: It is the caffeine, not the cost, of a morning coffee that is supposed to help you shake off any lingering sleepiness, but the world’s wake-up drink of choice is set to get more expensive in 2025.

December saw the cost of Arabica beans hit a record high on the global commodities market, while Robusta prices nearly doubled in 2024, reaching $5,694 a tonne by late November.

The price rises came as the global coffee industry battled a perfect storm of challenges, with climate change, supply chain disruptions, and global market forces all having an impact.

It is against this backdrop that Saudi Arabia is looking to expand its involvement in the sector, with the Middle East consuming more than its fair share of the product.

The International Coffee Organization estimated that 6.3 million 60-kg bags of coffee were drunk in the Middle East in the year 2022/23 – 3.6 percent of the world’s consumption.

“The region’s population is 196 million, or 2.6 percent of the world’s population. The region is consuming above its share,” the organization noted.

Dock No, statistical coordinator with the Secretariat of the ICO, highlighted that Saudi Arabia became the second country in the Middle East to become a member of the International Coffee Organization, when the country signed the International Coffee Agreement in February.

“The coffee sector in Saudi Arabia is growing fast and is an important part of our plans for the future and the change we wish to bring to our country as it contributes to diversifying the national economy,” No said.

The coffee organization highlighted the Saudi Coffee Co., a new venture launched by the Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund. With a $319 million investment over 10 years, the company aims to significantly expand Saudi Arabia’s coffee production from 300 tonnes annually to 2,500 tonnes.

This growth will be driven by a focus on sustainability throughout the coffee supply chain, from production to distribution and marketing.

“Varieties are a key tool for any agricultural system, and improved varieties will contribute to productive climate resilient coffee systems in Saudi Arabia, just like anywhere else,” CEO of World Coffee Research, Jennifer Vern Long emphasized in an interview with Arab News.

A global challenge

Andrew Hetzel, a coffee and high-value agriculture specialist, told Arab News that climate change, particularly prolonged droughts and unpredictable weather patterns, is directly affecting bean crops.

Brazil, which primarily produces arabica, and Vietnam, which is the largest robusta producer, are experiencing unseasonably dry weather, leading to lower yields and quality for the 2024/25 season.

The South American country is also the second-largest robusta producer, and has faced crop yield losses due to unusually dry weather in key growing regions. No also noted the country’s vulnerability to past extreme events like the frost of July 2021 that affected its crop​.

Hetzel said: “Brazil is the most sophisticated agribusiness producer of coffee as a nation, but even they do not irrigate all of their fields.”

Long emphasized the urgency of increasing coffee productivity globally to meet growing demand.

She said: “Improving productivity doesn’t just ensure the supply of coffee can keep up with demand, it also decreases carbon emissions from coffee farming.”

Long further explained that current investments in coffee agricultural R&D, which stand at only $115 million per year, are far too low for a sector with such global significance.




Vern Long at the WCR Research Farm, Flor Amarilla, standing next to a promising new coffee variety. (World Coffee Research)

This surge in robusta prices is driven by a mix of climate-related challenges, geopolitical issues, and tightening supply chains.

In Vietnam production is expected to fall by 10 percent for the 2023/24 season, and the ICO’s No told Arab News that Vietnam’s local markets have reported domestic stocks running low.

Adding to these pressures is the disruption of key global trade routes. The Red Sea crisis has heavily impacted shipping, particularly for exports from Vietnam and Indonesia to Europe.

Roasters are now grappling with longer shipping times and higher costs due to rising insurance premiums and intense competition for container space.

As a result, robusta inventories are plummeting. By January 2024, certified robusta stocks had dropped to 0.48 million 60-kg bags, a sharp 15.4 percent decline on the previous month, according to a report by the ICO.

The ICO’s coordinator explained that coffee stocks in Europe have fallen by almost half since 2021, reducing from 15.5 million 60-kg bags to 8.7 million​.

Hetzel said some coffee prices are still being impacted from the COVID-19 pandemic, pointing to its effects on transport costs. “The cost of ocean freight from Indonesia to North America quadrupled as exporters fought for empty containers and ship bookings. Container shortages persist today,” he said.

No added that shipping disruptions through the Suez and Panama canals in the past 12 months have only exacerbated these logistical issues, forcing coffee exporters to take longer routes, which added to the cost.

Though green coffee bean exports saw a 12.6 percent increase in December 2023 compared to the previous year, this short-term boost is unlikely to ease the growing strain on supply.

Innovation needed to address coffee’s sustainability crisis

A recent report by World Coffee Research set out how the sector faces an innovation crisis that requires urgent attention, particularly in the wake of climate change.

The organization’s CEO explained that a significant increase in global investment — around $452 million per year — is required over the next decade to meet rising demand while mitigating climate-related yield losses.

The report emphasized that climate change is reducing coffee origin diversity and endangering smallholder production. This, combined with rising demand, could further destabilize the industry if not addressed.

Hetzel also underscored the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, particularly in developing regions. “The vast majority of coffee production is in fragile states that are highly susceptible to climate change,” he said, adding that many smallholder farmers are likely to be severely impacted by economic losses, leading to food insecurity, conflict, and out-migration.

How climate change will continue to drive up prices

Compounding these issues is the broader impact of climate change. The recent declaration of an El Nino weather event by the US Climate Prediction Center is expected to bring more drought to Vietnam and excessive rains to Brazil, further threatening coffee production.

Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has driven up fertilizer prices and energy costs, adding to the financial burden on coffee growers and roasters alike. As Hetzel noted: “The war in Ukraine has increased energy costs downstream from the farm – transportation, roasting, and distribution costs have all risen.”

No also highlighted the broader effects of inflation and rising input costs on coffee producers, particularly those in the Americas dealing with seasonal labor shortages​.

According to the WCR report, increased global investment is essential to ensure the long-term viability of coffee producers. Long warned that without action, the industry will continue to experience supply constraints and rising prices.

For the global coffee industry, navigating this turbulent environment requires vigilance and greater investment in innovation. As supply constraints and climate events continue to unfold, traders, roasters, and consumers alike are bracing for what could be a prolonged period of high coffee prices.


Jordan’s foreign exchange reserves hold steady at $22.76bn in May

Jordan’s foreign exchange reserves hold steady at $22.76bn in May
Updated 6 sec ago
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Jordan’s foreign exchange reserves hold steady at $22.76bn in May

Jordan’s foreign exchange reserves hold steady at $22.76bn in May

RIYADH: Jordan’s foreign exchange reserves remained largely unchanged in May, standing at $22.76 billion, as per new data released by the Central Bank of Jordan. 

The slight month-on-month dip — about 0.2 percent from April — reflects broad stability in the Kingdom’s external buffers. 

Jordan’s foreign exchange figures are broadly in line with trends observed across other Middle East and North African countries. 

The Qatar Central Bank recorded a 3.6 percent increase in its foreign currency reserves and liquidity, reaching 258.135 billion Qatari riyals ($70.9 billion) in May, up from 249.165 billion riyals in May 2024. 

Egypt’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $48.525 billion by the end of May, compared to $48.144 billion in April, marking an increase of $381 million. 

“The Central Bank of Jordan stated in a statement today that its total foreign reserves are sufficient to cover the country’s imports of goods and services for approximately nine months,” the Qatar News Agency reported. 

The central bank also reported that gold holdings at the end of May were valued at $7.76 billion, totaling 2.345 million ounces, underscoring the role of bullion in Jordan’s reserve composition. 

“It added that the presence of comfortable levels of foreign reserves enhances the ability to influence exchange rates, provides a stable economic environment, and enhances the confidence of foreign creditors and investors,” the QNA report stated, citing the Jordan Central Bank. 

In May, Jordan’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating was affirmed at “BB-” with a stable outlook by Fitch Ratings, citing the country’s macroeconomic stability and progress on fiscal and economic reforms. 

The US-based credit rating agency noted that the rating and stable outlook also reflect Jordan’s resilient financing sources — including a liquid banking sector, a robust public pension fund, and sustained international support. 

Despite the stable outlook, Jordan’s credit rating remains below that of several other countries in the region. In February, Fitch affirmed Saudi Arabia’s IDR at “A+” with a stable outlook, while the UAE was rated “AA-.” 

Fitch said the ratings are constrained by high government debt, moderate growth, risks from domestic and regional politics, as well as current account deficits and net external debt levels that exceed those of rating peers. 

A “BB” rating indicates elevated vulnerability to default risk, particularly in the event of adverse shifts in business or economic conditions. However, it also suggests some degree of financial or operational flexibility in meeting commitments. 

Fitch also noted that Jordan’s government remains committed to advancing its three-pillar reform agenda — spanning economic, public administration, and political sectors — despite external pressures. 

The agency added that the pace of reforms will continue to be shaped by the need to preserve social stability, resistance from vested interests, and institutional capacity limitations.


Syria’s central bank plans currency unification and return to global payment system SWIFT

Syria’s central bank plans currency unification and return to global payment system SWIFT
Updated 52 min 36 sec ago
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Syria’s central bank plans currency unification and return to global payment system SWIFT

Syria’s central bank plans currency unification and return to global payment system SWIFT
  • Governor Abdulkader Husrieh said reforms aim to eliminate role of unauthorized money changers
  • Reintegration into SWIFT marks milestone in new government’s economic liberalization efforts

RIYADH: Syria will adopt a unified exchange rate before transitioning to a managed float system as it seeks to stabilize a currency that has lost nearly all its value against the US dollar.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Central Bank of Syria’s Governor Abdulkader Husrieh confirmed the reforms, emphasizing efforts to eliminate the role of unauthorized money changers in the country’s foreign exchange market as part of broader financial reconstruction.

Syria is also set to be fully reintegrated into the SWIFT international money transfer system within weeks, reconnecting the country to global finance after 14 years of war and sanctions. 

The country is working to revive its economy after years of conflict, with its transitional government, led by President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, implementing reforms such as privatizing state-owned firms, easing import restrictions, and attracting foreign investment. 

An armed member of Syria’s security forces stands guard outside the Damascus Securities Exchange as the stock market opens in the Ya’fur area near Damascus. AFP

“We aim to enhance the brand of the country as a financial hub given the expected foreign direct investment in rebuilding and infrastructure — this is crucial,” Husrieh told the FT.

Key developments in Syria include a $7 billion energy deal with Qatar, the reopening of the Damascus Securities Exchange, and a $300 million fiber-optic project with Gulf telecom companies. These initiatives come as Saudi Arabia and Qatar pledge financial support to help stabilize Syria’s economy amid a gradual easing of Western sanctions.

SWIFT reconnection to boost trade and investment 

The reintegration into SWIFT marks a milestone in the new government’s economic liberalization efforts following the lifting of US sanctions last month.

The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications is a global cooperative that facilitates secure international money and security transfers through a vast messaging network, enabling banks and financial institutions to exchange information and instructions for financial transactions.

Husrieh, who took office in April, said that significant progress has been made but acknowledged that there’s still much work ahead.

A money changer waits for customers on a street in Damascus. AFP

Post-war economic challenges 

Since 2011, Syria has been isolated from global markets due to war and sanctions. The economy collapsed under ex-President Bashar Assad and when Al-Sharaa took power last December, his government swiftly introduced free-market reforms to revive the economy and reassure wary foreign investors. 

Last month, President Donald Trump’s announcement of lifting sanctions provided a major boost, but Husrieh stressed that “a full policy shift is still needed,” calling for comprehensive sanctions removal rather than selective measures.

“The central bank previously micromanaged the financial system, overregulated lending, and restricted withdrawals,” he said. “We’re reforming through recapitalization, deregulation, and re-establishing banks as intermediaries between households and businesses.”

Reconnecting to SWIFT will reduce import costs, facilitate exports, and curb reliance on informal financial networks. Husrieh said all foreign trade will now go through formal banks, cutting out money changers who took a 40 percent cut on dollar transactions. 

Before Assad left the presidency, the Syrian pound plummeted. While it has since strengthened, volatility remains. Husrieh aims to unify official and black-market rates before transitioning to a managed floating exchange rate system. 

Gulf nations are actively supporting the reforms in Syria, and Saudi Arabia and Qatar cleared the country’s World Bank debt and pledged to cover public sector salaries for three months. 

“Effective May 12, 2025, the arrears of approximately $15.5 million due to the International Development Association by the Syrian Arab Republic have been cleared,” the World Bank confirmed on May 16.


Non-oil sector drives Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth to 3.4% in Q1: GASTAT 

Non-oil sector drives Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth to 3.4% in Q1: GASTAT 
Updated 09 June 2025
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Non-oil sector drives Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth to 3.4% in Q1: GASTAT 

Non-oil sector drives Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth to 3.4% in Q1: GASTAT 
  • Wholesale and retail trade, restaurants, and hotels lead at an 8.4% annual increase
  • Oil activities contracted by 0.5% year on year

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s economy expanded by 3.4 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2025, propelled by robust growth in non-oil activities, according to official data. 

The estimates released by the General Authority for Statistics showed that the seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product also saw a quarterly rise of 1.1 percent, signaling sustained economic momentum. 

The non-oil sector emerged as the primary engine of growth, increasing by 4.9 percent compared to the first quarter of 2024. In contrast, oil activities contracted by 0.5 percent year on year, reflecting ongoing volatility in the energy sector. 

Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth aligns with the broader Middle East trend, where countries are steadily advancing economic diversification. 

Reforms under Vision 2030 are gradually reducing Saudi Arabia’s dependence on the hydrocarbon sector, fostering more sustainable and long-term growth. Shutterstock

The UAE’s Ministry of Economy forecasts a 5-6 percent growth rate in 2025, fueled by robust performance in key sectors such as technology, renewable energy, trade, financial services, and infrastructure. 

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings has lowered Qatar’s 2025 real GDP growth forecast from 2.9 percent to 2.6 percent, citing the effects of US tariffs on global growth, weaker energy prices, and heightened investor caution amid rising international uncertainty. 

In a release covering the latest Saudi Arabia figures, GASTAT stated: “The main driver of growth in real GDP was non-oil activities, which contributed 2.8 percentage points. Government activities and net taxes on products also contributed positively adding 0.5 and 0.2 PP respectively.” 

Sectoral performance 

According to the GASTAT report, several non-oil sectors posted strong growth across the quarter, with the wholesale and retail trade, restaurants, and hotels sector leading at an 8.4 percent annual increase. 

The transport, storage, and communication sector also showed robust performance, growing by 6 percent year on year. 

Saudi Arabia’s exports rebounded sharply, rising by 12.3 percent quarter on quarter, while imports fell by 10 percent. Shutterstock

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, and business services expanded by 5.5 percent despite experiencing a slight 0.1 percent quarterly dip. 

These gains highlight the diversification and resilience of the economy beyond the oil industry. 

Gross fixed capital formation jumped by 8.5 percent annually, underscoring confidence in the economy, while government spending rose by 5.2 percent. Private consumption grew by 4.5 percent year on year, though it declined slightly from the previous quarter. 

Trade balance improvement 

Saudi Arabia’s exports rebounded sharply, rising by 12.3 percent quarter on quarter, while imports fell by 10 percent over the same period, narrowing the trade deficit. 

The data highlights the Kingdom’s progress in diversifying its economy under Vision 2030, with non-oil sectors increasingly offsetting fluctuations in oil revenues. 

In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund projected Saudi Arabia’s GDP to grow by 3 percent in 2025, a downward revision from its January estimate of 3.3 percent. The IMF also trimmed its projection for 2026, reducing the expected growth rate by 0.4 percentage points to 3.7 percent. 

Saudi Arabia’s transport, storage, and communication sector showed robust performance, growing by 6 percent year on year. SPA

These forecasts reflect broader trends in the global economic environment, where shifts in energy markets and oil production adjustments continue to play a pivotal role in shaping near-term growth prospects. 

The Kingdom’s economic performance remains closely tied to hydrocarbon sector dynamics, but ongoing reforms under Vision 2030 are gradually reducing this dependence, fostering more sustainable, long-term growth. 

Further reinforcing this outlook, a December 2024 report from Mastercard Economics emphasized the accelerating expansion of Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector, which has become a key driver of economic resilience. 

The analysis projected that the Kingdom’s GDP will grow by 3.7 percent year on year in 2025, a figure slightly higher than the IMF’s estimate, largely due to strong performance in non-oil industries such as tourism, entertainment, technology, and manufacturing. 

The Mastercard report also noted that economic diversification will remain a top priority in 2025, with Saudi authorities leveraging the country’s strong fiscal buffers to fund ambitious infrastructure projects and attract private investment. 

Key initiatives include mega-developments like NEOM, the Red Sea Project, and Qiddiya, alongside investments in renewable energy and digital transformation. 

“Population growth is an important driver of economic activity, and particularly private consumption,” the report added. 


Oil Updates — prices dip on weak China data, but hopes for US-China trade deal support

Oil Updates — prices dip on weak China data, but hopes for US-China trade deal support
Updated 09 June 2025
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Oil Updates — prices dip on weak China data, but hopes for US-China trade deal support

Oil Updates — prices dip on weak China data, but hopes for US-China trade deal support
  • US, China to hold trade talks in London on Monday
  • China’s May crude imports hit 4-month low — data

SINGAPORE: Oil prices slipped on Monday on weak China data, but held on to most of last week’s gains, as investors awaited US-China trade talks in London later in the day, hoping a deal could boost the global economic outlook and fuel demand.
Brent crude futures slipped 18 cents, or 0.27 percent, to $66.29 a barrel by 08:44 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 15 cents, or 0.23 percent, to $64.43.
China’s exports growth slowed to a three-month low in May as US tariffs slammed shipments, data showed, while factory-gate deflation deepened to its worst in two years, heaping pressure on the world’s second-largest economy both at home and abroad.
The data also showed that China’s crude oil imports declined in May to the lowest daily rate in four months, as state-owned and independent refiners underwent widespread planned maintenance.
“Bad timing for crude oil, which was testing the top of the range and knocking on the door of a technical break above $65,” said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore, referring to WTI prices.
“That said I would expect the reaction to be less extreme than usual, given US and China trade talks later today.”
Brent had advanced 4 percent, and WTI gained 6.2 percent, last week for their first weekly gain in three, as the prospect of a US-China trade deal boosted some investors’ risk appetite.
A US jobs report showing unemployment held steady in May appeared to increase the odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, further supporting gains last week.
The prospect of a China-US trade deal that could support economic growth and increase demand for oil outweighed worries about increased OPEC+ supply after the group announced on May 31 another big output hike for July.
HSBC expects OPEC+ to accelerate supply hikes in August and September, which are likely to raise downside risks to the bank’s $65-per-barrel Brent forecast from the fourth quarter of 2025, it said in a research note on Friday.
Capital Economics researchers said they believe the “new faster pace of (OPEC+) production rises is here to stay.”
WTI’s discount to Brent has also been narrowing on a combination of increased OPEC+ output, modest US crude oil supply growth and the potential for output declines next year, ING analysts led by Warren Patterson said in a note.
The US benchmark strengthened on supply concerns after wildfires disrupted production in Canada and robust US fuel demand during the summer driving season.
The number of operating US oil rigs, an early indicator of future output, fell by nine to 442 last week, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday. 


Saudi ports post 13% rise in container volume in May: Mawani 

Saudi ports post 13% rise in container volume in May: Mawani 
Updated 08 June 2025
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Saudi ports post 13% rise in container volume in May: Mawani 

Saudi ports post 13% rise in container volume in May: Mawani 
  • Imported containers rose 15.84% from a year earlier to 292,223 TEUs
  • Exported volumes increased 9.38% to 279,318 TEUs

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s seaports handled 720,684 twenty-foot equivalent units in May, a 13 percent year-on-year jump, driven by growth in imports, exports, and transshipment activity, official figures showed. 

According to data from the Saudi Ports Authority, also known as Mawani, imported containers rose 15.84 percent from a year earlier to 292,223 TEUs, while exported volumes increased 9.38 percent to 279,318 TEUs.

Transport, or transshipment, containers also climbed 12.89 percent to 149,143 TEUs, reflecting the Kingdom’s growing role as a regional trade hub. 

The uptick in activity highlights the ongoing expansion of port infrastructure and logistics services across the country. It also supports the goals of Saudi Arabia’s National Transport and Logistics Strategy, which seeks to position the Kingdom as a global logistics center under Vision 2030. 

In a release, Mawani stated: “The total tonnage handled — general cargo, solid bulk cargo, and liquid bulk cargo — increased by 1.40 percent to reach 21,337,699 tonnes compared to 21,042,684 tonnes during the same period last year.”  

The uptick in activity highlights the ongoing expansion of port infrastructure and logistics services across the Kingdom. Shutterstock

It added: “The total general cargo amounted to 935,932 tonnes, solid bulk cargo 5,059,899 tonnes, and liquid bulk cargo 15,341,868 tonnes.”   

The ports received 1.63 million heads of livestock, up 61.22 percent compared to 1.01 million during the same period last year. 

Maritime traffic also picked up, with vessel calls rising 9.39 percent to 1,083 ships, while the number of passengers grew 68.15 percent to reach 95,231. The number of vehicles handled increased by 13.09 percent year on year to 84,352 units. 

The positive momentum follows a strong performance in April, when Saudi ports handled 625,430 standard containers, up 13.4 percent from a year earlier. 

In 2024, Mawani announced several major initiatives, including agreements and groundbreaking projects to establish eight new logistics parks and hubs at Jeddah Islamic Port and King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, with a combined private sector investment of approximately SR2.9 billion ($773 million). 

These efforts are part of a broader strategy to enhance the competitiveness of Saudi ports and reinforce the Kingdom’s position as a global trade and logistics hub. 

The initiatives form part of a larger SR10 billion investment plan to develop 18 logistics parks across Saudi terminals, all overseen by Mawani.