OECD predicts 3.8% economic growth for Saudi Arabia in 2025

Saudi Arabia’s inflation stability is noteworthy, especially within the context of the OECD’s broader inflation projections. File
Saudi Arabia’s inflation stability is noteworthy, especially within the context of the OECD’s broader inflation projections. File
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Updated 17 March 2025
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OECD predicts 3.8% economic growth for Saudi Arabia in 2025

OECD predicts 3.8% economic growth for Saudi Arabia in 2025

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s economy is poised for substantial growth, with its gross domestic product projected to increase from 1.2 percent in 2024 to 3.8 percent in 2025.

The projection by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development comes amid global economic uncertainties, as many advanced economies are expected to face sluggish growth due to escalating trade tensions, geopolitical instability, and inflationary pressures.

This forecast signals a turnaround for the Kingdom, positioning it as one of the fastest-growing economies within the G20 in the coming years. While Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth is expected to moderate slightly to 3.6 percent in 2026, global GDP growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026.

Stable inflation

The OECD report also forecasts that Saudi Arabia’s inflation will remain low and stable, projected at 1.9 percent in 2025 and 2 percent in 2026. This stands in contrast to the higher inflation rates seen in many major economies, particularly those facing trade-related disruptions and rising labor costs.

The Kingdom’s inflation stability is noteworthy, especially within the context of the OECD’s broader inflation projections. The report highlights that G20 headline inflation is expected to stay at 3.8 percent in 2025 and 3.2 percent in 2026, with core inflation remaining above target in several advanced economies, including the US.

Oil market and OPEC+ production strategy

A key factor driving Saudi Arabia’s economic performance is its oil sector, which continues to be a vital growth pillar despite the country’s ongoing efforts to diversify its economy under Vision 2030.

The OECD report noted that OPEC+ plans to gradually “unwind production curbs” starting in April 2025, a move that could have significant implications for global oil prices.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s efforts to boost non-oil revenue sources under Vision 2030—through investments in technology, tourism, and infrastructure—are helping to strengthen economic resilience amid market volatility. However, the OECD also cautioned that geopolitical risks and rising protectionist policies in global trade could disrupt energy markets, potentially leading to price fluctuations.

Global economic outlook

Beyond Saudi Arabia, the OECD painted a complex outlook for the global economy. “The global economy has shown real resilience, with growth remaining steady and inflation trending downward. However, signs of weakness have emerged, driven by heightened policy uncertainty,” said OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann.

Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.2 percent in 2024 to 3.1 percent in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026, with many advanced economies experiencing lower-than-expected growth due to increased trade barriers, inflationary pressures, and policy uncertainty.

 

 

The US economy is expected to see growth slow from 2.8 percent in 2024 to 2.2 percent in 2025 and 1.6 percent in 2026, as higher interest rates and trade tensions dampen investment and consumer spending. Similarly, the eurozone’s economy is projected to grow by just 1 percent in 2025 and 1.2 percent in 2026. China’s economy is also expected to decelerate, with growth slowing from 4.8 percent in 2025 to 4.4 percent in 2026.

Trade fragmentation and geopolitical risks

A key concern highlighted by the OECD is the growing rise of trade barriers and their potential impact on global economic stability. “Increasing trade restrictions will contribute to higher costs for both production and consumption. It remains essential to maintain a well-functioning, rules-based international trading system and keep markets open,” Cormann added.

The US has raised tariffs on imports from China by 20 percentage points, prompting retaliatory actions from China. In addition, higher tariffs on steel, aluminum, and other goods are expected to disrupt supply chains and increase production costs globally.

The OECD warned that such trade fragmentation could slow global growth and push inflation higher, particularly in economies heavily dependent on international trade. The report also noted that if trade tensions escalate further, global GDP could decline by an additional 0.3 percent over the next three years, with particularly severe effects on Canada, Mexico, and key European economies.

Monetary policy and inflation pressures

The OECD’s outlook also indicated that inflation remains a significant concern in many economies. While inflation is expected to moderate, it is likely to stay above central bank targets in key economies like the US, the eurozone, and the UK through 2026.

“Central banks should remain vigilant given heightened uncertainty and the potential for higher trade costs to push up wage and price pressures. Provided inflation expectations remain well-anchored, and trade tensions do not intensify further, policy rate reductions should continue in economies where underlying inflation is projected to moderate or remain subdued,” the report stated.

For emerging markets, inflation presents a mixed picture. Brazil and South Africa are expected to face persistent inflationary pressures, while India and Indonesia may see inflation remain relatively contained. Countries like Turkiye and Argentina, which have dealt with extreme inflation in recent years, are projected to see a sharp decline in inflation rates as fiscal and monetary tightening measures take effect.

The role of AI, structural reforms

Beyond trade and monetary policy, the OECD report emphasized the importance of structural reforms and digital transformation in enhancing long-term economic resilience.

“Governments can help by ensuring the availability of high-speed digital infrastructure, maintaining open and competitive markets, and providing opportunities for workers to enhance their skills,” the report noted.

OECD Chief Economist Alvaro Santos Pereira highlighted that AI is poised to drive significant labor productivity growth over the next decade, with even greater potential when combined with advancements in robotics.

“Yet, the gains from AI may diminish if policies do not facilitate higher adoption rates and support labor reallocation,” Pereira warned.

Navigating uncertainty

The OECD called for stronger international cooperation to prevent further trade fragmentation and urged governments to adopt a balanced approach to fiscal and monetary policies. It cautioned that excessive tightening of monetary policy could unnecessarily slow growth, while failing to manage inflation could lead to additional economic disruptions.

The report’s key policy recommendations emphasized the importance of avoiding further tariff escalations and seeking diplomatic trade solutions. It also highlighted the need for investments in AI and digital transformation to boost productivity, while maintaining cautious monetary policies to ensure inflation remains under control. Additionally, the report stressed the importance of encouraging structural reforms to build more resilient and dynamic labor markets.


Saudi crude output hits 8.95m bpd: JODI data 

Saudi crude output hits 8.95m bpd: JODI data 
Updated 6 sec ago
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Saudi crude output hits 8.95m bpd: JODI data 

Saudi crude output hits 8.95m bpd: JODI data 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production rose to 8.95 million barrels per day in February, marking a 0.34 percent monthly increase, according to the latest release from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative. 

Crude exports also climbed during the same period, rising 7.81 percent to reach 6.55 million bpd, the report showed.  

Refinery crude exports rose by 5.39 percent month on month in February to 1.41 million bpd, reflecting a 1.29 percent increase compared to the same period last year. The uptick was driven primarily by diesel shipments, which jumped 24.4 percent from the previous month to 668,000 bpd. 

Key refined products included diesel, motor gasoline, aviation gasoline, and fuel oil. Diesel accounted for the largest share of refined product exports at 47 percent, followed by motor and aviation gasoline at 18 percent, and fuel oil at 14 percent. 

Total refinery output reached 2.62 million bpd in February, a 6.6 percent monthly increase, with diesel comprising 40 percent of refined products, motor and aviation gasoline 24 percent, and fuel oil 14 percent. 

Domestic demand for refined petroleum products fell by 69,000 bpd in February compared to the previous month, reaching 1.71 million bpd. On an annual basis, demand dropped by 22.09 percent, equivalent to a decline of 485,000 bpd.  

On April 3, eight OPEC+ countries — including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — reaffirmed their commitment to supporting oil market stability amid a positive demand outlook. 

In a virtual meeting, the group agreed to implement a production increase of 411,000 bpd in May 2025, representing a front-loaded adjustment equivalent to three months of scheduled increments. The move marks the beginning of a phased and flexible reversal of the 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts introduced in 2023, in line with the decision reaffirmed in March. 

OPEC+ emphasized that the pace of future increases may be paused or reversed depending on market conditions, with monthly meetings scheduled to assess conformity and decide on subsequent production levels. According to the latest schedule, Saudi Arabia’s required production for May is set at 9.2 million bpd. 

Direct crude usage 

Saudi Arabia’s direct crude oil burn rose to 283,000 bpd in February, reflecting a 2.9 percent increase from January, but showing a 21 percent decline compared to the same month last year. 

The reduction in direct crude oil use for power generation is influenced by multiple strategic and economic factors. 

According to the US Energy Information Administration’s 2024 report, 62 percent of Saudi Arabia’s electricity was generated from natural gas in 2023, up from previous years — a shift that has significantly reduced the country’s reliance on crude oil for power generation. The expansion of gas-fired capacity has played a central role in this transition. 

The International Energy Agency’s 2024 Oil Market Report also highlighted that Saudi Arabia is actively expanding its electricity generation capacity through both natural gas and renewable energy sources, in alignment with Vision 2030. 

Supporting this trend, the Saudi Power Procurement Co. awarded bids in 2023 for four gas-fired power plants, each with a capacity of 1.8 gigawatts, and began accepting bids for four additional projects in early 2024. As of mid-2024, the Kingdom has more than 21 GW of planned renewable energy projects, the majority of which are focused on solar power. 


Saudi Arabia tops emerging markets’ venture capital funding, overtakes Singapore 

Saudi Arabia tops emerging markets’ venture capital funding, overtakes Singapore 
Updated 20 min 33 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia tops emerging markets’ venture capital funding, overtakes Singapore 

Saudi Arabia tops emerging markets’ venture capital funding, overtakes Singapore 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has overtaken Singapore as the premier destination for venture capital funds across emerging markets after it secured $391 million in the first quarter of 2025.

The 53 percent year-on-year rise helped propel the Kingdom to becoming the highest-performing country across the Middle East, Africa, Pakistan, Turkiye, and Southeast Asia in terms of total funding during the three-month period, as revealed in the latest analysis by venture data platform MAGNiTT. 

While the standout $160 million series E round by fintech unicorn Tabby contributed significantly to the overall figure, the broader investment ecosystem showed resilience with non-MEGA deal funding, which are transactions below $100 million, rising 9 percent quarter-on-quarter. 

“This consistency signals a strengthening pipeline backed by sovereign LPs (limited partners) like SVC (Saudi Venture Capital), a growing cohort of accelerators, and successful exits like Rasan’s IPO (initial public offering),” according to MAGNiTT’s report. 

Saudi Arabia leads MENA funding and deal activity 

Saudi Arabia led the EVMs and continued its dominance in the Middle East and North Africa region. 

The Kingdom captured 58 percent of all MENA venture funding and accounted for 41 percent of transactions, far outpacing regional peers. 

According to MAGNiTT, the Kingdom achieved an 87 percent year-on-year increase in non-mega deal funding and a 437 percent rise in series A and B rounds, supported by sizable transactions such as those by Ula.me and Merit Incentives, each raising $28 million. 

The rise in Saudi venture capital investment comes amid a broader rebound in the MENA region. 

Total funding across MENA reached $678 million in the first quarter of 2025, a 58 percent increase year on year, despite a 21 percent decline in deal count to 133 transactions. 

The surge was supported by improved investor sentiment following late 2024 interest rate cuts across the Gulf, along with sustained sovereign fund activity and flagship ecosystem initiatives such as LEAP 2025. 

In terms of historical share, Saudi Arabia’s ascent has been significant. It expanded its share of MENA venture funding to 58 percent in the first quarter of the year, up from 39 percent in 2024 and 51 percent in 2023. 

This upward trajectory has positioned the Kingdom as the central engine of regional VC activity, reversing a period during which the UAE held the lead. 

The ecosystem shift also reflects a structural change in capital allocation. The first quarter saw non-mega deals rise for the fourth consecutive quarter, and early-stage investments in series A and B rounds increased by 50 percent quarter-on-quarter. 

In contrast, Southeast Asia reported its weakest early-stage quarter in seven years, with Singapore’s funding falling by 61 percent year on year to $377 million. 

The gap signals a shift in global investor preference as capital increasingly flows toward markets like Saudi Arabia, where macroeconomic stability, proactive policy, and institutional backing provide a conducive environment for venture growth. 

With 54 deals completed, the Kingdom reported the smallest year-on-year decline in deal count among the region’s top three markets, supported by a robust early-stage pipeline. 

Fintech dominates sector activity 

Fintech remained the most active and well-funded sector across MENA, particularly in Saudi Arabia, contributing 30 percent of all deals and capturing 57 percent of total regional funding. 

The sector saw a 362 percent year-on-year increase in funding, totaling $384 million, driven by Tabby’s $160 million MEGA round and strong underlying demand for digital finance solutions. 

Notably, 35 percent of all fintech deals in the first quarter of 2025 were in the $5 million to $20 million range, up 24 percentage points from the same period last year, demonstrating increasing maturity and scalability across the sector. 

Enterprise Software was the second most transacted and funded vertical, propelled by activity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, accounting for 75 percent of all sector deals. 

Within this segment, the productivity apps sub-sector achieved record performance with six deals, including Merit Incentives’ $28 million and Qeen.ai’s $10 million rounds. The enterprise category posted a 112 percent annual growth in funding to reach $61 million. 

Saudi Arabia drives top-tier transactions and investor participation 

While deal volume across MENA dropped 21 percent year on year to just 133 transactions — one of the lowest quarterly figures in five years — Saudi Arabia defied the trend, maintaining strong early-stage momentum.

MAGNiTT noted that deal activity in the up to $1 million bracket declined 8 percentage points year on year to just 31 percent, while deals in the $5 million to $20 million and over $20 million brackets saw increases of 4 percentage points and 3 percentage points, respectively. 

This reallocation of capital reflects investors’ growing appetite for scale-ready startups in more advanced funding stages. 

Pre-seed to pre-series A activity in the Kingdom saw a 14 percent increase, highlighting the nation’s strengthening foundation for long-term growth. 

The shift in capital allocation patterns also reinforced Saudi Arabia’s strategic focus. 

The share of deals in the $1 million to $5 million range rose to 46 percent, the highest proportion in five years, mirroring a broader pivot across MENA toward larger, more scalable investment opportunities. 

Simultaneously, the lowest-value ticket size, $0 to $1 million, fell to 31 percent of deals, down 8 percentage points from the previous year. 

Five of the region’s 10 largest deals originated from the Kingdom, including Tabby’s round, the sole mega deal of the quarter, alongside significant rounds by Zension, with $30 million and Merit Incentives. 

According to MAGNiTT, this concentration of large-ticket transactions underscores the depth of investor confidence in the Saudi startup ecosystem.

Investor engagement in the Kingdom was also evident in the breakdown of top deals. The nation hosted more top-10 deals than any other MENA country, with fintech leading as the most represented industry. 

Blue Pool Capital and Hassana Investment Co. emerged as the most prominent backers, jointly deploying an estimated $53.3 million across key transactions, with fintech accounting for four of the top 10 deals. 

Exit environment strengthens on record M&A activity 

Saudi Arabia’s momentum was further underscored by a robust exit environment, with the MENA region recording 21 exits, up 163 percent year on year, marking the strongest quarter for mergers and acquisitions since MAGNiTT began tracking. 

The Kingdom’s IPO pipeline also improved, adding another layer of attractiveness to its startup ecosystem. 

While the regional rebound was attributed to easing inflation, improved liquidity, and pre-US tariff optimism, MAGNiTT emphasized that: “Saudi Arabia’s IPO and M&A momentum are now integral to the region’s exit environment.” 

Despite this surge, the median time to exit via M&A lengthened to six years, up from five in 2024, reflecting continued challenges for early-stage startup liquidity. 

Geopolitical risks introduce uncertainty to venture outlook 

Despite strong regional performance, MAGNiTT highlighted emerging risks that could disrupt momentum. 

“While Q1 2025 was a positive start to the year … that momentum is now under threat,” said Philip Bahoshy, CEO of MAGNiTT. 

He added that the new US tariff policies have created uncertainty in both the public and private markets over the last couple of weeks, which can create a challenge for decision-makers who are likely to be in a risk-off mindset.

“In venture capital, this uncertainty is likely to impact three areas: the deployment of capital from LPs to VCs, VCs’ willingness to make decisions in uncertain times, and finally, startups’ ability to raise funds,” said Bahoshy.

He noted that while global volatility persists, long-term fundamentals in EVMs remain strong. 

“Despite global headwinds, emerging venture markets continue to present compelling long-term opportunities. MENA, in particular, is uniquely positioned for sustained growth thanks to deep pools of local capital, pro-entrepreneurship policy, and active sovereign support,” Bahoshy added. 

“As global investors diversify beyond traditional markets, regions like MENA and Southeast Asia are poised to attract fresh capital — particularly in tech-led sectors that are strategically positioned and less exposed to tariff volatility,” the CEO said.


Real estate demand in Saudi Arabia’s two holy cities hits $2bn

Real estate demand in Saudi Arabia’s two holy cities hits $2bn
Updated 22 April 2025
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Real estate demand in Saudi Arabia’s two holy cities hits $2bn

Real estate demand in Saudi Arabia’s two holy cities hits $2bn
  • High-net-worth individuals eye real estate in Makkah and Madinah as Saudi property sector gains momentum

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector continues to draw international attention, with high-net-worth individuals from nine Muslim-majority countries preparing to commit $2 billion toward property purchases in Makkah and Madinah, according to a new survey. 

The findings, part of Knight Frank’s latest Private Capital Report, show that 84 percent of global HNWIs surveyed expressed interest in acquiring property in Saudi Arabia — with a clear preference for its two holy cities. 

Nearly half, or 48 percent, of those respondents said they plan to use homes in Makkah as their main residence, pointing to a shift toward long-term occupancy rather than seasonal or purely investment-driven holdings. 

The trend comes as Saudi Arabia overhauls its property sector to position itself as a global tourism and business hub by the decade’s end, in line with its Vision 2030 diversification strategy. 

Faisal Durrani, partner and head of research for the Middle East and North Africa at Knight Frank, said: “The region’s sustained economic growth, underpinned by ambitious national visions and strategic policy reforms, has reinforced its position as a global investment hub.” 

Durrani added that real estate remains a preferred investment vehicle for ultra-high-net-worth individuals seeking to preserve wealth. “Across the MENA region, demand for prime and super-prime homes has reached unprecedented levels, fueled by both local and international buyers seeking security, stability and long-term growth,” he said. 

Earlier this month, S&P Global said the outlook for Saudi Arabia’s property sector remains positive in the near term, driven by population growth, rising tourism, and Vision 2030-led initiatives. The Real Estate General Authority projects the market to reach $101.62 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 8 percent starting in 2024. 

UAE draws global wealth 

Regionally, the UAE continues to attract high-net-worth migration. Knight Frank noted that 7,200 millionaires relocated to the country in 2024, boosting its total resident population of affluent individuals to 134,000. 

The report also found the number of dollar millionaires in the UAE stood at 130,500 as of December 2024, ranking it the 14th largest wealth market globally. The emirates also host 325 centi-millionaires — those with liquid wealth exceeding $100 million — and 28 billionaires. 

According to Knight Frank, 31 percent of the millionaires who moved to the UAE over the past decade came from India, followed by 20 percent from the Middle East and 14 percent from Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States. 

“With a record-breaking 142,000 millionaires forecast to change their domicile globally in 2025, the UAE stands poised to capture a significant share of this wealth migration wave, strengthening its status as a wealth hub that has successfully transitioned from regional player to global force,” said Dominic Volek, group head of private clients at Henley & Partners, in a statement.  

Luxury sales surge in Dubai 

Wealth migration is translating into a property boom in Dubai, now the world’s most active market for $10 million-plus home sales for two consecutive years, ahead of London and New York. 

In 2024, the city recorded 435 ultra-luxury home transactions, compared to 434 the previous year. A record 153 such deals were closed in the fourth quarter of 2024 alone, while the first quarter of 2025 saw another 111, up 5.7 percent from the same period last year. 

“Dubai’s luxury residential market continues to defy gravity. Demand, particularly from international buyers, remains unrivaled on the global stage,” said Durrani. “In 2024 alone, Dubai not only led the world in the number of $10 million-plus home sales, but also topped total transaction value, with 435 deals worth $7.1 billion.” 

“Dubai has firmly established itself as the global epicenter for ultra-luxury real estate – surpassing legacy markets like New York, London and Hong Kong. It’s a staggering achievement for a market that, until recently, was considered relatively young,” he added. 

Palm Jumeirah retained its position as Dubai’s premier ultra-prime location, recording 34 transactions worth more than $10 million in the first quarter of 2025, with a combined value of $562.8 million. 

Emirates Hills followed, with 15 deals totaling $356.7 million. 

“Dubai has cemented its position as a premier destination for HNWI seeking real estate for personal use or for investment purposes, with a distinct focus by the global elite on making the city a permanent base or a second home,” said Nicholas Spencer, Knight Frank’s partner- Private Capital and Family Enterprises, MENA.  

Broader MENA trends  

In the wider region, Knight Frank said Qatar’s residential market is also drawing interest from GCC nationals and GCC-based expatriates. 

The firm identified $537.5 million in private capital globally that is actively seeking residential real estate in Qatar. 

Meanwhile, Egypt’s real estate market remains a key area of interest for GCC investors. 

“GCC investors’ interest in Egypt’s second homes market underscores the country’s appeal as a prime real estate destination. The combination of lifestyle benefits, potential for high rental yields, affordability and strong strategic ties to the GCC all add to the country’s allure,” added Knight Frank. 


Key tourism roles to be localized in Saudi Arabia as part of national employment push 

Key tourism roles to be localized in Saudi Arabia as part of national employment push 
Updated 22 April 2025
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Key tourism roles to be localized in Saudi Arabia as part of national employment push 

Key tourism roles to be localized in Saudi Arabia as part of national employment push 

JEDDAH: Hotel managers, travel agency directors, and tour guides are among 41 tourism roles set to be reserved for Saudi nationals under plans to boost local employment and reduce reliance on foreign labor. 

In coordination with the Ministry of Tourism, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development announced the decision, highlighting that the move targets leadership and specialist jobs in the private sector. 

Other roles earmarked for this localization designation include planning and development supervisors, tourism development specialists, procurement and sales professionals, and hotel receptionists.

The initiative is part of a broader labor market strategy to boost Saudization, a program launched in 2011 to increase domestic employment in the private sector through industry-specific quotas. 

It has helped reduce Saudi unemployment from 12.8 percent in 2018 to 7.1 percent by mid-2024, surpassing the Vision 2030 goal of 8 percent. The Kingdom has set a new target of 5 percent unemployment by 2030.

In a post on his X account, Tourism Minister Ahmed Al-Khateeb reaffirmed his ministry’s commitment to job localization in partnership with the private sector. He also emphasized ongoing efforts to train and equip national talent through top local and international institutions to ensure a world-class tourism experience.

He said: “We are proud that our young men and women have become the frontlines of the tourism sector, conveying our culture and embodying the values of warmth, generosity, and authentic Saudi hospitality in their interactions with the Kingdom’s guests.”

This program will launch in three phases, starting on April 22, 2026 with the full Saudization of four tourism roles, 70 percent localization for 12 positions, and 50 percent for another 12. 

The second stage, set to begin on Jan. 3, 2027, will implement a 30 percent localization rate for one specific role.

Starting Jan. 2, 2028, the final step will focus on localizing 50 percent of leadership positions within the sector. 

In a post on his X account, Human Resources and Social Development Minister Ahmed Al-Rajhi said: “This move comes as part of the continued efforts by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development to support national talent and enhance their participation in the labor market, in line with the objectives of Saudi Vision 2030.”

The most recent localization push came in January, when the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development, in coordination with the Ministry of Health, announced new Saudization targets for the pharmaceutical sector. 

Starting July 27, community pharmacies and medical complexes must reach a 35 percent Saudization rate, hospitals 65 percent, and other pharmacy-related businesses 55 percent. The regulations will apply to companies with five or more pharmacy professionals.


Oil Updates — prices rise on short-covering, but tariff worries linger 

Oil Updates — prices rise on short-covering, but tariff worries linger 
Updated 22 April 2025
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Oil Updates — prices rise on short-covering, but tariff worries linger 

Oil Updates — prices rise on short-covering, but tariff worries linger 

SINGAPORE: Oil prices climbed on Tuesday as investors took advantage of the previous day’s losses to cover short positions, although concerns persisted over economic headwinds from tariffs and US monetary policy that could dampen fuel demand, according to Reuters. 

Brent crude futures rose 42 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $66.68 a barrel at 09:20 a.m. Saudi time. The US West Texas Intermediate crude contract for May, which expires on Tuesday, was at $63.53 a barrel, up 45 cents, or 0.7 percent. 

The more actively traded WTI June contract was up 0.7 percent, or 45 cents, at $62.86 a barrel. 

Both benchmarks dropped more than 2 percent on Monday, as signs of progress in nuclear deal talks between the US and Iran helped ease supply concerns. 

“Some short-covering emerged after Monday’s sharp sell-off,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities. 

“However, concerns about a potential recession driven by the tariff war persist,” he said, predicting that WTI will likely trade in the $55–$65 range for the time being given ongoing uncertainty related to tariffs. 

On Monday, US President Donald Trump repeated his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and said the US economy could slow unless interest rates were lowered immediately. 

His comments about Powell fuelled worries about the Fed’s independence in setting monetary policy and the outlook for US assets. Major US stock indexes dropped and the dollar index slid to a three-year low on Monday. 

“The growing uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy is expected to negatively impact financial markets and the broader economy, raising fears that it could lead to a decline in crude oil demand,” Kikukawa said. 

A Reuters poll on April 17 showed investors believe the tariff policy will trigger a significant slowdown in the US economy this year and next, with the median probability of recession in the next 12 months approaching 50 percent. 

The US is the world’s biggest oil consumer. 

Progress in talks between the US and Iran, which on Saturday agreed to begin drawing up a framework for a potential nuclear deal, could also weigh on oil prices and reduce supply concerns as the Middle Eastern country is a major producer. 

“Our view that Iran’s oil exports face imminent downside risks due to the enforcement of US sanctions has eased given ongoing talks between US and Iran,” Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a note, adding that US sanctions relief was potentially on the table. 

Meanwhile, Russia’s economy ministry has cut its forecast for the average price of Brent crude in 2025 by nearly 17 percent from what it saw in its September calculations, according to documents obtained by Reuters. 

US crude oil and gasoline stockpiles were expected to have fallen last week, while distillate inventories likely rose, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday, ahead of weekly reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration.