Global borrowing hits $25tn in 2024, raising debt sustainability fears: OECD 

Global borrowing hits $25tn in 2024, raising debt sustainability fears: OECD 
The surge in borrowing reflects a fragile global economy grappling with slower growth, persistent inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty. Shutterstock.
Short Url
Updated 23 March 2025
Follow

Global borrowing hits $25tn in 2024, raising debt sustainability fears: OECD 

Global borrowing hits $25tn in 2024, raising debt sustainability fears: OECD 

RIYADH: Global borrowing hit a record $25 trillion in 2024, a $10 trillion surge from pre-pandemic levels, sparking concerns over sustainability, a new report showed.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said in its latest study, “Financing Growth in a Challenging Debt Market Environment,” that the figure is nearly triple the amount raised in 2007, driven by rising sovereign and corporate debt amid higher borrowing costs and economic volatility. 

The surge in borrowing reflects a fragile global economy grappling with slower growth, persistent inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty, which have forced governments and companies to seek more debt to fund operations and maintain public services. 

OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said: “Sovereign and corporate debt levels continue to grow across the world, at a time of increasing borrowing costs and market volatility.” He urged governments to improve public spending efficiency, prioritize productive investments, and incentivize businesses to expand capacity. 

Rising debt levels

The analysis warned that debt levels are projected to continue rising into 2025, with the aggregate central government marketable debt-to-gross domestic product ratio in OECD countries expected to reach 85 percent. This represents an increase of more than 10 percentage points since 2019, nearly double the 2007 level.

“The increase in 2024 was the first since 2020, reflecting slower projected GDP (gross domestic product) growth of around 2 percent annually during this period, compared to over 4 percent in 2022-23, when the economy was recovering from the pandemic,” the report said. 

Bond yields in several major markets surged despite declining policy rates, exacerbating the challenges posed by higher sovereign and corporate indebtedness. This scenario increases borrowing costs and limits the fiscal space available for future investment at a time when substantial capital is needed to drive economic growth, respond to demographic changes, and meet defense and infrastructure needs. 

Record bond issuance

Sovereign bond issuance in OECD countries is projected to reach a historic high of $17 trillion in 2025, up from $14 trillion in 2023. The total outstanding debt is expected to grow from $54 trillion in 2023 to nearly $59 trillion in 2025.

Emerging markets and developing economies also witnessed a sharp increase in sovereign borrowing, with total debt issuance rising from approximately $1 trillion in 2007 to over $3 trillion in 2024. China accounted for 45 percent of the total issuance in 2024, a rise from the 17 percent recorded between 2007 and 2014.

By the end of 2024, global corporate bond debt is set to reach $35 trillion, continuing a decades-long borrowing trend, mainly driven by non-financial companies whose debt has nearly doubled since 2008.

Higher borrowing costs

Governments and corporations are beginning to feel the weight of higher borrowing costs. In 2024, interest payments as a share of GDP increased in about two-thirds of OECD countries, reaching an average of 3.3 percent — a growth of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year. 

“This means spending on interest payments is greater than government expenditure on defense in the OECD on aggregate,” the report explained. 

Additionally, refinancing risks have grown significantly, with nearly 45 percent of sovereign debt in OECD countries set to mature by 2027. Corporate bond markets face similar pressures, with approximately one-third of all outstanding corporate bond debt scheduled to mature in the next three years. 

Refinancing this debt at higher interest rates could further strain public and corporate finances.   

Debt ownership shifts 

The withdrawal of central banks from sovereign debt markets continued in 2024, with their holdings of domestic government bonds in OECD economies shrinking from 29 percent of total outstanding debt in 2021 to 19 percent in 2024.

Simultaneously, domestic households increased their share from 5 percent to 11 percent, while foreign investors expanded their holdings from 29 percent to 34 percent. This transition to a more price-sensitive investor base could amplify market volatility, particularly if new investors demand higher yields.

Climate financing challenges

A key theme of the OECD’s report is the financing required to meet global climate change objectives.

“If growth rates for public and private investment in the climate transition continue in line with recent trends, advanced economies will not be aligned with the Paris Agreement goals until 2041,” the study said. 

The situation is even more difficult for emerging markets other than China, which would face a cumulative investment shortfall of $10 trillion to meet the Paris Agreement goals by 2050.

The report suggested that increasing public sector financing for climate initiatives could substantially raise public debt-to-GDP ratios. Alternatively, greater reliance on private capital would necessitate rapid development of capital markets, particularly in emerging economies.

“Financial regulation reforms will be essential, particularly to enhance capital market development in emerging markets,” the study noted. 


Saudi banks weathering external debt surge amid Vision 2030 push: S&P report

Saudi banks weathering external debt surge amid Vision 2030 push: S&P report
Updated 29 sec ago
Follow

Saudi banks weathering external debt surge amid Vision 2030 push: S&P report

Saudi banks weathering external debt surge amid Vision 2030 push: S&P report

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s banking sector is set to absorb a rise in external debt, driven by increasing financing demands under the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 agenda, according to a new report.

The analysis by S&P Global Ratings revealed that despite a marked increase in external liabilities over the past three years, Saudi banks remain in a strong position to manage associated risks.

The uptick in debt is primarily linked to short-term instruments, such as interbank and non-resident deposits, as well as bond issuances on international capital markets.

In 2024, Saudi banks extended loans worth SR371.8 billion ($100 billion), while deposits grew by only SR218.9 billion, creating a funding gap of SR152.9 billion to be refinanced.

S&P estimates that by the end of 2028, net external debt will account for only 4.1 percent of total lending, a manageable level by industry standards.

“More recently, banks have increasingly tapped international capital markets for funding as local sources proved insufficient to meet the country’s ambitious requirements, as set out in the state’s Saudi Vision 2030 development program, and the expected growth in corporate financing requirements,” the study stated.

The Kingdom’s lenders, which until recently maintained a net external asset position, posted a net external debt of SR34 billion by the end of 2024. S&P expects foreign liabilities to almost double over the next three years.

Saudi banks’ external funding remains heavily skewed toward interbank deposits and repurchase agreements, accounting for 55 percent of the increase in gross external debt last year.

Notably, 59 percent of all external debt in 2024 was owed to foreign banks, raising concerns over volatility, given the short-term nature of such funding.

Despite this, the report noted that nearly half of these foreign deposits originate from within the Gulf Cooperation Council, where banking systems are flush with liquidity.

This regional funding base, coupled with Saudi Arabia’s proven record of state support, is expected to cushion any potential shocks.

“We view Saudi authorities as highly supportive of the banking system and expect extraordinary support will be forthcoming should the need arise,” the analysis stated.

The agency also dismissed direct comparisons with Qatar, whose banking sector experienced a sharp rise in external debt during its infrastructure build-up for the 2022 FIFA World Cup.

At its peak, Qatar’s net banking external debt reached 40.6 percent of domestic loans at the end of 2021.

As of end-2024, Saudi banks held gross external debt of $109.5 billion, nearly “quadruple” its $29.5 billion at the end of 2018.

Yet the country’s total banking assets are almost double those of Qatar, helping to absorb the increase in debt.

In parallel with external funding, Saudi banks are exploring ways to unlock balance sheet capacity through mortgage asset sales.

The Saudi Real Estate Refinance Co. had acquired SR28.8 billion in home loans by the end of 2024, while discussions around mortgage-backed securities remain ongoing.

Despite holding mortgage portfolios worth $180 billion, or 23 percent of total lending, banks have been cautious about divestment.

Factors include favorable profitability, past losses due to higher interest rates, and investor hesitation around default recovery mechanisms in the Kingdom.

However, S&P predicts that a local market for residential mortgage-backed securities will gradually emerge, supporting further liquidity creation.

The report concludes that while external debt will continue to grow in the short term, Saudi banks retain ample headroom to navigate the risks, thanks to strong fundamentals, sovereign backing, and a measured approach to financial innovation.


Kuwaiti investors encouraged to explore opportunities in Saudi Arabia by industry minister

Kuwaiti investors encouraged to explore opportunities in Saudi Arabia by industry minister
Updated 38 min 45 sec ago
Follow

Kuwaiti investors encouraged to explore opportunities in Saudi Arabia by industry minister

Kuwaiti investors encouraged to explore opportunities in Saudi Arabia by industry minister

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s minister of industry and mineral resources has urged Kuwaiti investors to seize untapped opportunities in the Kingdom’s mining sector.

The encouragement was given during Bandar Alkhorayef’s meeting on April 30 with a group of Kuwaiti businessmen at a gathering organized by the Saudi Embassy as part of the minister’s official visit to the Gulf country. 

The trip was designed to strengthen economic ties, enhance cooperation in the industrial and mining sectors, and attract high-quality investments to the Kingdom, according to a statement.

During his meeting with the investors, the minister highlighted the crucial contribution of the industrial and mining sectors to the Kingdom’s economic diversification, aligning with Saudi Vision 2030’s aim to establish the country as a global industrial leader and a key hub for mineral production and processing.

This aligns with developments across the Saudi mining sector in order to maximize its impact on the national economy and exploit mineral resources, estimated at more than SR9.3 trillion ($2.47 trillion), Alkhorayef noted.

“He pointed out that the National Industrial Strategy focuses on developing and localizing 12 vital industrial sectors, most notably food, pharmaceuticals, automotive, and aviation, as these sectors provide promising investment opportunities for local and international investors,” the newly released ministry statement said.

“His Excellency pointed out the Kingdom’s endeavor to enable industrial transformation by adopting the latest manufacturing technologies, including applications of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, developing digital infrastructure in the industrial sector, and developing human capabilities and qualifying them to deal with advanced technologies,” it added.

During the meeting, Alkhorayef highlighted the Kingdom’s launch of the Factories of the Future program, which aims to automate industrial facilities and transform them into smart factories.

The minister also indicated that the General Geological Survey Program for Mining Exploration currently covers 60 percent of the Arabian Shield region and that the sector offers promising investment opportunities in all stages of mining.

He highlighted Saudi Arabia’s strategic advantages that position it as a prime global investment hub, such as its location connecting three continents, advanced infrastructure, and abundant natural resources, as well as varied energy options and streamlined government processes and licensing.

Toward the end of the meeting, Alkhorayef encouraged Kuwaiti companies and investors to explore the distinctive opportunities in the Kingdom’s industrial and mining sectors, emphasizing the nation’s supportive capabilities and incentives designed to facilitate and enhance the investor experience.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait to bolster collaboration in oil, commerce, industry

Bandar Alkhorayef meeting with Minister of Oil Tariq Sulaiman Al-Roumi. X/@BAlkhorayef

During his official visit to Kuwait, Alkhorayef also held bilateral meetings with the Minister of Commerce and Industry Khalifa Abdullah Al-Ajeel and the Minister of Oil Tariq Sulaiman Al-Roumi.

During the meeting with Al-Ajeel, the Saudi minister praised the longstanding and robust ties between the Kingdom and Kuwait, emphasizing that these historical relations serve as a solid foundation for strategic economic partnerships, particularly in the industrial sector.

The discussion also emphasized the need to bolster industrial integration between the two sides in order to advance sustainable industrial development and promote economic diversification in both nations.

The meeting with Sulaiman saw the crucial role of the crude oil sector highlighted as a key driver of development in both countries. It also explored strategic opportunities to expand collaboration in the petrochemical industry and discussed ways to increase trade exchange and direct joint investments toward emerging, high-potential sectors.

In an interview with Arab News on the sidelines of the Standard Incentives for the Industrial Sector event in January, Alkhorayef said that Saudi Arabia is taking a flexible approach to distributing its SR10 billion standardized incentive program — which provides financial support to industrial projects — to maximize its impact.

At the time, the minister said the program is designed to align with investor demand and deliver optimal returns.


GCC share of emerging-market dollar debt jumps to 35% in Q1 

GCC share of emerging-market dollar debt jumps to 35% in Q1 
Updated 30 April 2025
Follow

GCC share of emerging-market dollar debt jumps to 35% in Q1 

GCC share of emerging-market dollar debt jumps to 35% in Q1 

RIYADH: Gulf Cooperation Council countries accounted for over 35 percent of all emerging-market US dollar debt issued in the first quarter of the year— excluding China— marking a sharp increase from around 25 percent in 2024, a new report revealed. 

In its latest analysis, Fitch Ratings forecast that the share is expected to continue rising through 2025 and 2026 as regional governments and corporations increasingly turn to debt capital markets for funding diversification, project finance, and budget support amid fiscal pressures and global economic uncertainty. 

The report stated that the total value of the GCC DCM exceeded $1 trillion across all currencies by the end of the first quarter, marking a 10 percent year-on-year increase.

Issuance reached $89 billion in the first three months of the year, up 11 percent from the previous quarter but down 3 percent compared to the same period of 2024. 

Despite a slowdown in activity since early April, Fitch noted “a healthy pipeline” is developing, supported by strong regional and Islamic investor liquidity. 

“The GCC DCM continues to be fragmented among its six member countries in its maturity, depth, and credit profile, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE the most mature,” the report stated. 

“In Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman, the lack of a link with international central securities depositories such as Euroclear or Clearstream partly hinders foreign-investor participation in the local-currency DCMs,” it added. 

According to the global investment banking firm State Street Global Advisors, other regions saw divergent trends. Brazil led the emerging market in local bond returns with a 13.7 percent gain, driven by currency appreciation and rate hikes. 

In contrast, Turkiye posted an 8.7 percent decline, reflecting political instability and currency depreciation. These shifts underscore varying macroeconomic dynamics across emerging markets. 

In the Kingdom, foreign investors increased their participation in local government debt, accounting for 7.7 percent of the investor base at the end of the first quarter of the year, up from 4.5 percent in 2024. 

Fitch noted that pressure from declining oil prices — forecast at $65 per barrel for 2025 and 2026 due to OPEC+ cuts and trade-related volatility — could widen fiscal deficits and lead to increased borrowing. 

Among the most vulnerable are Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, while Qatar, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi benefit from substantial sovereign wealth assets. Oman is seen as relatively well-positioned fiscally. 

Interest rate expectations are also playing a role in shaping the DCM outlook. Fitch projects the US Federal Reserve to lower rates to 4.25 percent by end of 2025, with GCC central banks expected to follow suit. 

Lower rates could support further issuance, as banks and corporates across the region continue to diversify their funding strategies. 

Sukuk remains a cornerstone of the GCC’s DCM, comprising around 40 percent of the total outstanding by the first quarter of the year. 

The region holds over 40 percent of the global sukuk market, though issuance fell 51 percent year on year in the first quarter to $18.2 billion. 

Conventional bonds rose 29 percent over the same period. Fitch reported that 83.5 percent of Fitch-rated GCC US dollar sukuk are investment-grade, with 57.8 percent in the “A” category and the majority holding stable outlooks. 

Environmental, social and governance financing is also gaining traction in the region, with GCC countries’ ESG DCM surpassing $50 billion in all currencies by the end of the quarter. 

National-level regulatory reforms are also reshaping local markets. In Kuwait, the cabinet’s approval of a long-delayed financing and liquidity law is expected to unlock new borrowing capacity. 

In the UAE, the apex bank continues to advance the Dirham Monetary Framework, with the currency’s share in the domestic DCM growing to 24.9 percent from just 0.5 percent in 2020. 

Sustainable finance is also gaining momentum, with the UAE developing a Sustainable Islamic M-Bills program and Qatar unveiling a sustainable finance framework. 

Despite global uncertainty, Fitch emphasized the resilience of the region’s credit quality, noting that no Fitch-rated GCC sukuk or bonds defaulted in 2024 or the first quarter of 2025.


Chinese carmakers to capture 34% of MEA market by 2030: AlixPartners 

Chinese carmakers to capture 34% of MEA market by 2030: AlixPartners 
Updated 30 April 2025
Follow

Chinese carmakers to capture 34% of MEA market by 2030: AlixPartners 

Chinese carmakers to capture 34% of MEA market by 2030: AlixPartners 

RIYADH: Chinese automotive brands are expected to achieve a market share of 34 percent in the Middle East and Africa region by 2030, marking a rise from 10 percent in 2024, according to an analysis. 

In its latest report, global consulting firm AlixPartners stated that the MEA region will hold the highest share of vehicles produced by the Asian country outside of China, Russia, and Belarus by the end of the decade. 

The projections align with findings published in November by media intelligence firm CARMA, which revealed that car buyers in countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE show trust levels above 70 percent for Chinese automotive brands — more than double the confidence seen in the US. 

Alessandro Massaglia, partner and managing director at AlixPartners, said: “Chinese car manufacturers are rapidly gaining traction in the Middle East, positioning the region as a critical growth engine for their global exports.”

According to Massaglia, the technical prowess of Chinese vehicles and competitive pricing are two major factors attracting buyers in the Middle East. 

“Customers appreciate the competitive pricing and high technology content of Chinese vehicles. These brands are steadily gaining ground on established players, a trend expected to accelerate with the gradual shift toward electric vehicles,” he added. 

Countries including Saudi Arabia have already set clear targets for EV adoption, with the Kingdom aiming to have 30 percent of all vehicles in Riyadh electric by the end of this decade as part of its Vision 2030 initiative.

The report noted that the Middle East region is set to play an increasingly strategic role in the global growth ambitions of Chinese vehicle brands. 

“The region’s appetite for innovation, coupled with its investments in future mobility and sustainability, positions it as a key destination for next-generation automotive solutions,” said AlixPartners. 

It added: “The growing alignment between Chinese brands’ offerings and Middle Eastern market needs is expected to drive deeper partnerships, technology adoption, and competitive intensity across the automotive landscape in the coming years.” 

Middle East growth 

According to AlixPartners, the Middle East and Russia emerged as the most important markets for Chinese exports in 2024, surpassing North America and Europe in volume for the first time. 

“This shift comes as China continues to flex its muscles in the global automotive-export market, even amid the ongoing global tariff storm gripping the industry,” said AlixPartners. 

The global automotive industry has faced major upheaval since early April, after US President Donald Trump imposed a 145 percent tariff on Chinese imports — the highest so far in the trade dispute between the two countries.

According to the report, China’s exports globally rose by 23 percent year on year to reach 6.4 million passenger vehicles in 2024. 

The analysis noted that this growth is expected to moderate to 40 percent in 2025 as tariffs ripple through the market. 

Russia and the Middle East together accounted for 35 percent of China-origin vehicle exports in 2024, surpassing the combined shipments to Europe and North America for the first time. 

“China’s car sales to Russia and Belarus have more than doubled over the past five years, insulating it in part from the volatility of tariffs,” said Andrew Bergbaum, global leader of the automotive and industrial practice at AlixPartners. 

The report also forecasted that Chinese brands will account for 30 percent of the global automotive market by 2030, up from 21 percent in 2024, primarily driven by strong gains in emerging markets. 

Impact of tariffs 

President Donald Trump holds a chart as he announces a plan for tariffs on imported goods during an event Wednesday, April 2, 2025. Getty

According to AlixPartners, tariffs issued by the US and other countries will have a muted impact on the Chinese automotive industry. 

“Although recent tariffs from the US and other countries will increase the cost of China’s vehicle and auto components exports by about 24 percent, or $46 billion, this represents only about 3.8 percent of China’s total auto-industry production value,” said the consulting firm. 

Growth in the Chinese automotive industry will also be supported by domestic demand, which is expected to grow by 4 percent in 2025, reaching 26.8 million units. 

The report highlighted that domestic growth in China is primarily driven by the rapid adoption of EVs, increasingly featuring intelligent-vehicle technologies such as autonomous-driving systems. 

AlixPartners projected that EV sales in China will account for 54 percent of the domestic market in 2025. 

Highlighting innovation in Chinese vehicles, the report noted that Advanced Driving Assistance Systems, or ADAS, Level 2 and above were included in nearly 60 percent of passenger vehicle sales in China in 2024, compared to less than 40 percent in the US. 

ADAS refers to electronic technologies used in vehicles to enhance safety and driving comfort. 

As Chinese automakers strengthen their presence in the Middle East, driven by competitive pricing, technology adoption, and evolving market demand, continued growth is expected in the years ahead.


Saudi POS spending hits $3bn, fueled by jewelry sales

Saudi POS spending hits $3bn, fueled by jewelry sales
Updated 30 April 2025
Follow

Saudi POS spending hits $3bn, fueled by jewelry sales

Saudi POS spending hits $3bn, fueled by jewelry sales

RIYADH: Jewelry spending in Saudi Arabia hit SR320.7 million ($85.4 million) between April 20 and 26, marking a weekly rise of 18.2 percent, according to the latest official figures.

The point-of-sale transactions bulletin issued by the Saudi Central Bank showed that this sector was one of the few that registered positive growth over the seven-day period.

The overall point-of-sale value decreased by 0.8 percent to SR11.3 billion during the week, with the number of transactions dropping 1.1 percent to 199.7 million.

Spending on electronics and electronic devices saw the second-largest increase, at 3.5 percent, to reach SR152.7 million. The number of transactions in this area increased 0.8 percent to 1 million.

Food and beverages spending followed with a 0.6 percent uptick to SR1.65 billion, accounting for the largest share of the week’s POS value.

Expenditure on education saw the biggest decrease, dipping by 17.5 percent to SR137.2 million, followed by hotels with a 13.7 percent drop to SR254.6 million.

Spending in restaurants and cafes saw a 2.1 percent fall to SR1.64 billion, although it still claimed the second-largest share of the POS value. Outlays on miscellaneous goods and services dropped 2.7 percent to SR1.34 billion.

Spending in the leading three categories accounted for approximately 40.8 percent, or SR4.6 billion, of the week’s total value.

Recreation and culture spending dropped by 7.4 percent to SR210.4 million, and expenditure on furniture decreased by 1.3 percent to SR224.9 million.

The clothing and footwear sector saw the smallest decline at 0.1 percent to SR607 million, with the number of transactions dropping by 1.9 percent to 4.6 million.

Geographically, Riyadh dominated POS transactions, representing around 36.1 percent of the total, with expenses in the capital reaching SR4.1 billion — a 0.1 percent increase from the previous week. 

Jeddah followed with a 0.5 percent decrease to SR1.7 billion; Dammam came in third at SR602.5 million, up 1.7 percent. 

Madinah experienced the most significant decrease in spending, dropping by 7.7 percent to SR421.1 million. Makkah followed with a 5.7 percent reduction to SR420.7 million.

Among Saudi cities, only Riyadh, Dammam, and Alkhobar experienced growth in transaction numbers. Riyadh reached 65.8 million transactions, reflecting a marginal uptick, while Dammam climbed to 8.5 million and Alkhobar to 4.5 million, marking modest gains compared to other regions.