RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is expected to experience above-average temperatures across most of the Kingdom through October, with rainfall intensifying from September and potentially reaching heavy to very heavy levels in some areas later in the season, the National Center for Meteorology said on Friday.
The NCM’s 36-page three-month climate outlook for August, September and October projects a 60 percent to 80 percent probability of above-normal surface temperatures nationwide, with the largest anomalies forecast in August and October, when temperatures could rise by as much as 2.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.
August is expected to be the driest month of the three-month period, with below-average rainfall forecast across parts of Jazan, Al-Baha, Najran, Asir, Makkah, Madinah, Tabuk, Riyadh and the Eastern Province, while most other regions are expected to receive near-normal precipitation.
The highest temperature anomalies in August are forecast for western Al-Baha and Asir and southwestern Makkah.
Conditions are expected to shift in September, when rainfall is forecast to rise above average across parts of Tabuk, Madinah, Al-Baha, Asir, Makkah, Qassim, Hail, Al-Jouf and the Northern Borders. The NCM said that rainfall during the month could be moderate to heavy, while temperatures are expected to remain up to 2 degrees Celsius above normal across much of the Kingdom.
By October, above-average rainfall is forecast across nearly all regions, with the NCM warning that precipitation could become heavy to very heavy and, in isolated areas, exceptionally intense. Temperatures are expected to remain as much as 2.5 degrees Celsius above average in parts of Najran, Asir, Al-Baha, Makkah, Riyadh and the Eastern Province.
Riyadh is forecast to remain warmer than normal throughout the three-month period. While southern parts of the province are expected to receive below-average rainfall in August, wetter-than-normal conditions are forecast for northern Riyadh in September before expanding to most of the province in October.
The Eastern Province is also expected to remain warmer than average, with southwestern areas forecast to record some of the Kingdom’s largest temperature increases in October. Rainfall, initially below normal in the south during August, is expected to increase across most of the province by October.
The NCM also forecast stronger-than-normal winds during the period, with wind speeds generally increasing by up to 1.5 meters per second across much of the Kingdom. In October, wind anomalies could reach 2.4 meters per second above average over southern, central and eastern regions.
The center urged government agencies, emergency responders and the public to continue monitoring its short-term forecasts and early warning bulletins, noting that localized extreme weather events and sudden heavy rainfall may develop even when they are not fully reflected in seasonal climate outlooks.
• With SPA
