Like most observers of the American political scene, Pakistani analysts tend to turn to newspapers like the New York Times, Washington Post, Christian Science Monitor and other “liberal” news disseminators like CNN. Rarely is there an effort to monitor Republican party sympathizers such as the Washington Times or the Fox News Channel.
What does this coverage suggests after the successful conclusion of the largely virtual Democratic nomination process that culminated in a 77-year-old Catholic (the first Catholic after John F. Kennedy) being nominated as the Democratic Party’s candidate for the presidency? His nomination was endorsed by former Democratic presidents Obama and Clinton and, what seemed surprising, also by Republican stalwarts such as Gen. Colin Powell, former Republican presidential candidate ex-Ohio governor John Kasich, and the widow of Senator John McCain. In addition, 74 former Republican national security advisers have endorsed Biden for president. The selection of Kamala Harris, a Black woman, as vice-president did provide a bounce and has ensured by some estimates that the Black and Latino turnout will be high.
The polls seem equally promising for Biden. He is seen as leading Trump in Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by substantial margins. These states are seen to be crucial since these were the states that played a lead role in Trump’s electoral college victory in 2016. Another poll by the Economist showed Biden with 50 percent versus 40 percent for Trump.
It is however premature to suggest that Biden’s victory is assured. The recent agreement between the UAE and Israel brokered by President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has pleased the Evangelicals that are the core of Trump’s support and will galvanize them into voting personally or by mail. Jewish voters, however, may be divided since many of them believe that when it comes to Palestine and Israel only a two-state solution offers lasting peace.
The voting by mail is another issue that can adversely influence the conduct of the election and Biden’s prospects. Currently, it appears that the Democrats do not believe, for good reason, the assurances held out by the Trump appointed Post chief that mail-in votes will be received in time and will be counted in time. This can end up with a repetition of the “hanging chads” in Florida in the 2000 presidential election, when it took a Supreme Court decision to make George. W. Bush the president.
Other issues the voters may look at include the release of the report of the Republican-controlled Senate that asserts in the words of the New York Times that Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign sought and maintained close contacts with Russian government officials who were helping him get elected. The Trump campaign accepted their offers of help. The campaign secretly provided Russian officials with key polling data. Hardcore Trump supporters may dismiss this but it seems that suburban voters may turn away from Trump.
It is an unfortunate reality that Trump policy making via Twitter or Biden’s more considered policy formulation with the advice of trained professionals will want Pakistan to maintain the support it has offered to for the implementation of the Taliban-US agreement signed on Feb. 29. The US will need Pakistan's assistance for an orderly withdrawal from Afghanistan, for preventing Afghan soil from becoming a sanctuary for Daesh and other terrorist groups, and for preventing an India-Pakistan confrontation that could escalate with incalculable consequences for the region and the world.
Najmuddin A. Shaikh
Above all perhaps Trump’s fulminations and claims notwithstanding American voters recognize that the Trump administration’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic has been an abysmal failure despite the fact that the US has the most resources human and infrastructure to handle the problem. Will they make Trump pay the price?
Many business groups and giants in the IT industry are being more supportive of Biden and his promise of millions of jobs as a focus on renewable energy becomes, Biden hopes, the new mantra. Will the oil and gas industry lobby strenuously against this?
Will Biden’s emphasis on climate change be appealing? This will require cooperation with the rest of the world, including China, and perhaps the voter will buy the proposition that cooperation with China in some spheres while being adversarial in others is the new diplomacy that can replace Trump’s "go it alone" policies.
In foreign policy terms Trump’s decision to pull forces out of Syria and Afghanistan finds positive resonance with an American populace fed up with expensive wars that have required cutbacks on the maintenance of infrastructure and the realization that they are now falling well behind the other developed countries.”
To sum up, it would seem that that the prospects for Biden are better than for Trump and the Republican convention will not change that position.
How will the new or reelected administration deal with Pakistan? It is an unfortunate reality that Trump policy making via Twitter or Biden’s more considered policy formulation with the advice of trained professionals will want Pakistan to maintain the support it has offered to for the implementation of the Taliban-US agreement signed on Feb. 29.
The US will need Pakistan's assistance for an orderly withdrawal from Afghanistan, for preventing Afghan soil from becoming a sanctuary for Daesh and other terrorist groups, and for preventing an India-Pakistan confrontation that could escalate with incalculable consequences for the region and the world.
We must recognize that even when regular American troops and support civilians are withdrawn, CIA-financed Afghan militias will remain and will be supported by air operations from the sea and will, therefore, require the use of our airspace and other logistic support.
The recent legislation we have adopted on antiterrorism will be a great step forward in improving US-Pakistan relations. Today, the US in its update on COVID-19 assistance says Pakistan has received $18 billion over the last 2 decades. Now, perhaps, they can provide market access and let us thus help ourselves.
– Ambassador Najmuddin A. Shaikh is a former foreign secretary of Pakistan, and served as high commissioner to Canada, ambassador to Germany, US and Iran. He is a former member of the board of governors of the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad and a founding member of the Karachi Council of Foreign Relations.
