On May 23, the people of the UK will head for the polls to elect its representatives to the European Parliament. Prima facie, it does not make sense to send MEPs to Brussels if the intention is for the country to quit the EU in the next few months. The cost of organizing these elections is considerable: £150 million ($195 million). As the UK had been warned time and time again by Karin Kneissl, the Austrian foreign minister, the elections were an obligation of EU membership. Therefore they constituted something like a “drop dead date” to exit.
So how did we get to this point? It is the hallmark of an ineffective government. One could not make up the developments over the last three years, even if one was blessed with a vivid imagination.
First it was “Brexit means Brexit,” then it was a “red, white and blue Brexit,” and then it was promises to deliver an on-time Brexit, followed by a couple of extensions. In order to appease the Tory party’s hard-line Brexiteers, Prime Minister Theresa May was quite adamant from the word go that the UK would leave the EU customs union and single market. It took her the better part of three years to realize that she would not be able to pass her withdrawal bill (the divorce agreement between the UK and the EU) with just votes from the Conservative Party and the Democratic Unionist Party, which props up her minority government.
The latter could not agree to the so-called Irish backstop for fear that it might result in permanently treating Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the UK. And the hardcore Brexiteers in the Conservative Party were always going to frustrate anything that meant compromise between the EU and the UK. Diplomacy always involves a certain level of compromise, which is reflected in the withdrawal agreement, but May got probably as good a deal as was possible in the circumstances.
It was only when the PM was faced with the obligation to hold European elections that she realized she needed to engage with the opposition. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn insists on some form of a customs union and the government conceded to that on a temporary basis until the next election. This is not acceptable to Labour. Neither side has even bothered to engage with the EU, which is, after all, the real counterparty to any agreement. The prime minister’s negotiations with Labour did not produce a result in time to avoid the upcoming European elections. Frustration is high, with Labour’s shadow chancellor John McDonnell declaring on the BBC’s flagship “The Andrew Marr Show” that he could not trust May.
He is not alone. Calls for May to stand down intensified after last week’s ill-fated local elections. The Conservatives suffered a crushing defeat, losing more than 1,300 local councilors (Labour did not fare much better). In theory, the party cannot unseat May until December because, according to its rules, it can only stage a no-confidence vote once in a 12-month period. However, the party might revise its rules, while its powers that be have impressed on the PM that the sooner she steps down the better.
A lot will depend on how the party fares in the elections to the European Parliament. It is bound to be another bloodbath for the Conservatives. It will be difficult for Labour too, because the electorate does not appreciate that Corbyn has been sitting on the fence the whole time. Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party, Change UK — The Independent Group, which was formed by wayward Labour and Conservative MPs and is firmly pro-remain, and the Liberal Democrats stand to be the big winners.
Brexit split the country right down the middle. It also split the two main parties. A Financial Times poll from January showed that many more people identified more strongly with their position on Brexit than with any of the parties. The Tories may even split over Brexit. Labour is not immune from defections either, as the new Change UK party proves. Both May and Corbyn are products of their parties, which is why they have put party before country on more than one occasion.
The real losers in all of these shenanigans are the country, its citizens, and the economy.
The Conservative Party powers that be have impressed on the PM that the sooner she steps down the better.
Cornelia Meyer
The UK used to be widely admired for its diplomatic prowess and for punching well above its weight on the international stage. Not since the 1956 Suez Crisis has it faced a diplomatic debacle of such major proportions. The UK’s reputation will be dented for good. After Brexit, not only will the country lose clout because it is no longer associated with the EU and its 500 million-strong market, but the government also looks indecisive and unable to deliver on any promise. There will be a big sense of relief in Brussels when the Eurocrats can leave Brexit behind and finally focus on other issues, such as immigration, climate change and their economies.
The protracted Brexit debacle has created significant uncertainty, which is bound to have consequences on the economy beyond the falling value of the pound once the country has left the bloc. Nobody will invest unless and until the trajectory of the future relationship with the EU is known (Honda's decision to close its plant in Swindon being one example). This lack of investment will be felt once the country has left the EU because there is always a time lag between investment and economic activity. Andrew Bailey, chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority and the favorite to be the next governor of the Bank of England, made a salient point this week when he criticized both Labour’s and the Conservatives’ obsession with the customs union because it does not include the financial services sector, which is a big part of the British economy.
Not bringing Brexit to a timely conclusion is a big failure by the powers that be and it is testament to the fact that both government and opposition put party before country. The European Parliament elections being held in a country destined to leave the EU are an expensive charade. The country’s diplomatic reputation is in tatters. The people have been let down by the political elites.
- Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources
