Israeli escalation feared as holy festivals approach

Tensions in Jerusalem and the rest of the Occupied Territories hardly need escalating. Yet, for months, observers have feared the impending conjunction of Ramadan, Easter and Passover that starts this week. These are occasions for spiritual reflection for millions, but all too sadly also an occasion for some for more intense oppression, conquest and domination.

Key players met in Sharm El-Sheikh on Sunday, in theory to calm matters. This included the US, Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Jordan and Egypt. Israel apparently committed to not discuss any new settlement units for four months and to stop the authorization of settlement posts for six months. However, the wording is so vague as to render it meaningless. Optimism is not high, but one thing is clear: The threat of violence has been well signposted. Everyone is watching.

All the ingredients are present for a bloody few weeks. Israeli forces and settlers have killed at least 84 Palestinians in 2023 and are on course to break last year’s record for the West Bank.

Two years ago, in May 2021, Israeli plans to forcibly dispossess Palestinian families in the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah led to a major flare-up, resulting in 11 days of arguably Israel’s most devastating bombardment of Gaza. Hamas had refused to be quiet and launched rocket attacks across the border into Israel.

Sheikh Jarrah remains a tinderbox. You can see the tented office of Israel’s anti-Arab National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir provocatively located right in the heart of the Palestinian area. Ben-Gvir is the settler champion who makes no secret of his desire to get the Palestinians out of Sheikh Jarrah and elsewhere in Jerusalem. Other areas of East Jerusalem are also tense, not least Silwan, an area under the Old City that is under continuous threat of demolition.

Much of the focus will be on Al-Aqsa. Palestinian Muslims and others are on high alert to any inkling that Israeli extremists will attempt to alter the status quo any further. By convention, Israel forbids Jewish visits to Al-Haram Al-Sharif for the last 10 days of Ramadan. This year, however, this coincides with Passover, so what will happen? Hundreds of thousands of Palestinian Muslims will be attempting to pray at Al-Aqsa. How the Israeli security forces manage this will be essential to keeping order. Which Palestinians will be allowed into Jerusalem from the West Bank and even Gaza? Will the police try to keep things cool or inflame tensions? All too often in recent years, Israeli forces have used incredible levels of force on the holy site, including tear gas.

Aside from Al-Haram Al-Sharif, other points of tension could also propel the situation into a bloodbath. Israeli forces continue their provocative and deadly raids into Nablus and Jenin.

The massive Israeli protests also play into this. On Saturday, for the 11th weekend in a row, the numbers in Tel Aviv were huge, reportedly more than 120,000. The issue of oppression of Palestinians figures for only a small percentage. But it is the threat to the stability of the coalition and Israel’s international reputation and economic well-being that could add fuel to the flames. A Palestinian gunman has already attacked one protest.

The extremist members of the governing coalition will not worry one jot and will push forward with crushing what they perceive to be a left-wing judiciary blocking their dreams of a theocratic, Jewish-only Israel of their dreams. President Isaac Herzog has dramatically warned of an Israeli civil war. Quite what that might look like nobody knows, but it is a racing certainty that Palestinians inside Israel and in the Occupied Territories will bear the brunt of this.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may — although this is far from certain — wish to calm things down. Keeping out of jail and his personal political survival are his priorities, in that order. Beyond that, he has his own reasons for wanting to regain control of the dramas ahead. Whereas the hardcore settler movement is prepared to go on the attack, Netanyahu has always prided himself on maintaining security for Israelis, and a major conflagration in the West Bank hardly fulfills that. The Israeli army, police and security services would appear to want the same, triggering fallouts with Ben-Gvir. The big question therefore will be can Netanyahu control Ben-Gvir? He has a mixed record so far.

The Israeli PM enjoys strutting on the global stage. But he has not yet received the traditional invitation to the White House. The cozy fireside chat usually afforded to Israeli leaders has not materialized under President Joe Biden. This is the penalty for having ignored US protestations over settlements and other Israeli actions viewed as unnecessarily escalatory. It also reflects concerns about the Israeli protests and the undermining of the judiciary. Netanyahu will want to reverse this, not least to ensure that he can steer America’s position on Iran.

Gaza could also be a safety valve. This is the 2014 model of events. That summer, tensions in Jerusalem were white hot. The war on Gaza shifted the field of conflict to the blockaded enclave, where Israel launched a crushing bombardment on the 2 million Palestinian inhabitants. Could this happen again in 2023? It cannot be ruled out. Hamas has threatened action should the status quo at Al-Aqsa be violated.

Another factor that makes 2023 more dangerous even than 2021 is that the PA is weaker than ever. The Palestinian leadership did promise at last month’s Aqaba summit to calm things during Ramadan, but can it? It has little to no sway over events in Jerusalem, let alone in the rest of the West Bank. The Palestinian youth in Jerusalem do not take orders from anyone.

President Mahmoud Abbas cannot bring the sort of energetic, dynamic Palestinian leadership those under occupation require. The story of at least the last 12 months revolves around the dramatic decline in the PA’s ability to control and influence the Palestinian population, not least in Nablus and Jenin. This could spread.

For the settlers busily engaged in their war on Palestinians, escalation brings huge gains. Provoking the Palestinians can be done in any number of ways — raids into cities, assassinations, home demolitions, etc. If a Palestinian or a Palestinian group carries out an attack, they use that as cover to launch a major attack, approve new settlement plans and demolish more homes.

Palestinians simply cannot repel the settler assault on Palestinian areas. The fear is that the next month will see the next bloody chapter in this illegal colonial enterprise.

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London.

Twitter: @Doylech