Sunni vote will determine the outcome of Lebanese election

The Lebanese will head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new parliament. This election will decide the fate of Lebanon. Though it is unlikely we will see an uprooting of the current corrupt political elite, the vote will decide on Hezbollah’s control over the country.

The general mood is different to the aftermath of the Doha Agreement in 2008, when the trend was to compromise. Today, people are keen to confront Hezbollah. Following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, the pro-Hariri, anti-Syria and anti-Hezbollah camp won the majority. The head of this group, Saad Hariri, Rafik’s son, compromised and reinstated Nabih Berri, the head of the Amal Movement and a close ally of Hezbollah, as the speaker of the parliament. He basically gave Hezbollah control over parliament despite the fact it did not have the majority. This will not be the case today.

If the majority changes today, the person leading it will be the head of the Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea. He has a more radical attitude toward Hezbollah than Hariri and the regional attitude has also changed. The Gulf countries are categorically opposed to the group.

The elections are crucial for Hezbollah. If it loses its majority, then its weapons — which are one of Iran’s main regional tools — will be endangered. Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech this week that, whatever happens, the group will not relinquish its arms. Despite this show of confidence, Hezbollah is in a precarious situation. Its Christian ally, the Free Patriotic Movement, is losing popularity among its base. The average Christian is appalled by what they see as Michel Aoun and Gebran Bassil’s complete subordination to Hezbollah.

The Lebanese Forces are benefiting from this shift. Geagea is perceived by the Christian street as the Christian leader who stands firm against Hezbollah’s schemes to undermine the country’s sovereignty. A shift in the Christian majority is important as it would remove the group’s cover for Hezbollah. The latter would no longer be able to present itself as a “national” movement endorsed by the majority of Christians, meaning its legitimacy would be undermined.

What would be even more disastrous for Hezbollah would be for it to lose its majority. And it would not take much for that to happen. Currently, all it would take is for the opposition to flip seven seats, as the difference between the pro-Hezbollah alliance and its rivals is 12 members of parliament.

While there might be some exceptions, Hezbollah and Amal have a grip on the Shiite community. It is unlikely that the average Shiite will vote for new representation. And Hezbollah can make up for the loss of the Christian vote if the Sunnis do not vote or if their vote is diluted. If the Sunnis do not vote, such as in Beirut’s second district, which is the stronghold of the Sunni community, Hezbollah’s list will get more seats. It is simple mathematics that, if the Sunnis do not vote, then the total vote will diminish and the pro-Hezbollah list will win more seats.

But Hariri, who has left politics at least for the moment, has been encouraging people not to vote. His argument is that the vote will give Hezbollah legitimacy. Though he did not issue an official statement calling for a boycott, his associates are spreading the message. His deputy, Rola Al-Tabash, posted on Twitter: “Tarik Al-Jadida (a neighborhood in Beirut) is boycotting elections.”

Hariri is looking for a role, even if it is a negative one. According to his logic, if Hezbollah wins, then he can go back to his one-time allies and convince them that he is the one and only Sunni leader. But the issue is not as simple as that and people are not that naive. The Sunnis are generally in favor of voting and we saw this trend in the expatriate votes. The Saudi ambassador has intensified his activities in Lebanon recently in order to encourage people to vote, while the Sunni mufti made a speech where he emphasized the importance of voting to ensure the changes the country deserves. In the Friday sermons prior to the election, imams will encourage people to vote.

Hariri has been criticized for his selfish behavior, with his attitude described as being that of “me or nobody.” However, he is playing with fire because a high turnout of Sunni voters on Sunday would demonstrate his irrelevance.

If the president, prime minister and speaker are not on Hezbollah’s side, that would be disastrous for the group’s future.

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Hezbollah is banking on the fact that the Sunnis are leaderless and demoralized. A shattered Sunni vote would certainly mean a pro-Hezbollah majority, giving it renewed legitimacy in the eyes of the international community and more leverage for Iran, which it definitely needs as the nuclear deal negotiations have stalled.

A new majority that is anti-Hezbollah would mean a new president who is anti-Hezbollah, a new prime minister who is anti-Hezbollah and perhaps, contrary to the trend seen for the past 30 years, a new speaker who is not Berri and who is anti-Hezbollah. If the Shiite seat in Jubail, a Christian area, is won by the Lebanese Forces, there could be an anti-Hezbollah Shiite deputy who could serve as speaker of the parliament. If the president, prime minister and speaker are not on Hezbollah’s side, that would be disastrous for the group’s future. This is why Sunday is crucial for the future of Lebanon.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.