Once again it has been proven that the outcome of elections in Turkey are particularly hard to predict. For foreign pundits and local experts alike, attempting to determine who is most likely to win any given poll, national or local, has become a huge gamble.
The mayoral election in Istanbul last week is a good case study to examine. Rarely is a local election of such national and international importance. However, several factors combined to make this election extraordinary.
Ekrem Imamoglu, the candidate from the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), defeated the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) candidate Binali Yildirim in the rerun of Istanbul’s mayoral election by a landslide margin of more than 800,000 votes.
Imamoglu had won the initial mayoral vote on March 31 by the much smaller margin of about 13,000 votes, but the ruling party (AKP) demanded that the Supreme Electoral Council order a rerun.
The more emphatic second victory made headlines in the Western media. “Istanbul mayoral vote: Is ‘disastrous’ loss beginning of Erdogan’s end?” asked the BBC. “Turkey’s president suffers stinging defeat in Istanbul election redo,” said The New York Times. “How Istanbul’s elections turned into a heavy defeat for President Erdogan,” the headline in Time read.
The result of the election was shocking, given the assumption in Western circles that since the AKP had managed to void the first result and secure a rerun, the party must be sure of victory in the second poll — why else would it gamble and take such a huge risk of losing Istanbul a second time?
This assumption was wrong. There has long been a misconception in the foreign media that the rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is much more secure that it really is.
Needless to say, the loss of Istanbul is a big deal for Erdogan, who has often said “whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey.”
For the benefit of international observers, perhaps I should provide a little background. Erdogan grew up in Istanbul, and it is where his political career took off when he became the city’s popular and energetic mayor in 1994. In 2003, he was elected prime minister. In 2014 he became president, a position he still holds.
Since his AKP party took power in Turkey in 2002, he has won all the elections. It would not be wrong to say that he is the most popular and powerful leader in Turkish political history, in terms of popular support. He has become the center of decision making in Turkey and the sole force behind the country’s policy decisions.
The result of the Istanbul elections represents a smackdown for him but not a total defeat, as many foreign observers seem to think. It is much too early to judge. Istanbul has been ruled by his party for 25 years, since he was elected, during which time it has been transformed through extensive infrastructure projects that made it a hub for international tourists and investors. So this electoral defeat does not necessarily mean the city has given up on Erdogan.
Right now, no one can predict what the political situation will be when Turkey goes into its next election cycle.
Sinem Cengiz
It is also premature to assume that the defeat is the “beginning of the end for Erdogan and his party.” On the nation’s wider political stage, the AKP still holds at least 40 percent of the popular vote.
It also remains to be seen how Erdogan will respond to the election result. He will definitely be reflecting on what went wrong and many observers think this will lead to a reshuffle within his party. However after the election result was announced, both Erdogan and Yildirim congratulated Imamoglu on his victory, which was a very promising sign.
Another assumption after Imamoglu’s victory was that he will be the rival candidate to Erdogan in the 2023 elections. I believe this prediction is also premature, since Imamoglu, who was not a very well-known politician just a few months ago, won the election thanks to the votes he attracted from a number of very different segments of Turkish society, including Kurds, nationalists, secularists and even some AKP supporters. The CHP, the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party and the nationalist Good Party are not natural allies. Whether Imamoglu can hold on to the diverse support he attracted in this election will only become clear with time.
This is Turkey, where the world of politics can change rapidly and new figures can quickly emerge. There are also rumors that former President Abdullah Gul, former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and former minister Ali Babacan plan to form their own splinter party. So right now, no one can predict what the political situation will be when Turkey goes into its next election cycle.
Once again, therefore, I would remind observers that events in Turkish politics are hard to predict. However, one thing is clear and it is something that foreign observers tend to miss: Turks never lose their belief that they can directly affect the future direction of their country. Whether pro- or anti-government, they believe the problems their nation faces can only be solved when democracy is achieved through the ballot box — and they illustrated this belief effectively on Sunday night.
- Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz
