It seems that when it comes to Zimbabwe, there is only one person who knows what is happening there, and that is its president, Robert Mugabe. The rest of the world, while sharing a disgust and alarm at his blatant manipulation of the political process, is at a loss to know how to handle the growing crisis in the country.
Different groups with different agendas draw different lines at different places in the sand. The British, the former colonial power, have no hesitation in condemning the Zimbabwean president and calling for international sanctions. The British Foreign Office has been led such a merry dance by Mugabe and his administration that the standard soft, unctuous words of British diplomacy have been replaced by harsh, bitter condemnation. Many black African leaders have been a lot less ready than London to move decisively against the Mugabe regime. With some African governments, there may still be a feeling that this is, at heart, a racial issue.
In a way, it is. However, Mugabe’s campaign of hatred and violence is not simply directed against the whites or his country’s former colonial masters. He has struck down any blacks who seem to stand in his way, in the manner of the worst of Africa’s fallen dictators. It is this that has worried other black leaders, who have all signed up for Western-style democratic politics. Led by South Africa’s Thabo Mbeki, immense pressure has been exerted on Mugabe to back off. But it has not worked. The old Zimbabwean leader has been in politics for 22 years, longer than any of them and reckons he knows more than they do when it comes to dealing with white Europeans.
Hence the elaborate series of snubs that has been dealt out to the European Union’s election monitors. Mugabe must be enjoying himself playing with the EU’s determination to be fair. He has ruled out monitors from specific member countries and granted the head of the EU monitoring mission a tourist visa only. The mandarins in Brussels, though furious, have kept on smiling. No doubt, between now and next month’s elections, Mugabe will contrive to test those smiles further by humiliating and hamstringing the monitors that he has approved.
But the EU is only going to give Mugabe enough rope to hang himself. It is planning on the last laugh. If, as seems likely, it declares the presidential elections a fraud — if only because it will have been unable to monitor them properly — the trap will close on Mugabe. The EU will close down bank accounts, cut travel and work actively against overseas assets held by Mugabe and his regime. Washington’s support is guaranteed. Zimbabwe’s ruling fat cats will probably be unable to store their wealth in any international banking location. But, more importantly, Mugabe’s fellow African leaders will themselves come under diplomatic and economic pressure to fall in line. Zimbabwe will become truly isolated and the outlook for its people perilous. Civil strife would seem inevitable.
Mugabe may know what he is doing today as he tweaks the European nose and carries on with his campaign of repression. But he seems to have little idea of the longer-term disaster toward which he is leading his regime and his country.
