The shock waves from the success of the extreme right in the first round of the French presidential elections will reverberate far beyond France itself. The swing to the far right represents a triumph of a sinister France, a France that does not want foreigners in its midst. This is not some internal matter, of concern only in France itself, or in the EU, which Le Pen vehemently opposes. His racism and xenophobia, with which one in six French men and women evidently identify, is a matter of the gravest concern for the rest of the world.
The shock at realizing there is such a large degree of racism in France should not, however, throw the world into a frenzy of speculation about the fate of France’s minorities or the future of human rights there.
The next two weeks will see a great deal of agonizing within France about race, religion and immigration; and there is no doubt that its minorities are now very frightened — not just its Muslims, but its Jews as well, both of whom are the largest such communities in Europe. But there is no point worrying about what might happen if Le Pen were elected. He is not going to be president. Opinion polls now put Chirac at a staggering 80 percent of the vote, and Le Pen at just 20 percent. Chirac will be back in the Elysée Palace. That does not mean that there are no further shocks to come: more than one in four voters abstained in the first round. They did not vote because they were alienated by the political process: that is precisely the group to which Le Pen appeals. Now that he has a platform, they may well respond.
But the presidential contest is not what matters; it is the upcoming elections to the National Assembly that count. Le Pen’s National Front now has a launching pad to win enough seats to hold the balance of power in this real crucible of power.
It is to be profoundly hoped that this body blow to the French political system will be salutary. The result was not merely the swing to Le Pen, most noticeably among the French working class, but also a record level of abstentions. There is profound alienation with the highly opinionated, largely Paris-based, liberal elite that runs the country. No one in positions of power or in the highly politicized media paid attention to public concerns, especially about rising crime. The extent of their unawareness of what was happening in their own backyard was woefully evident in the way that, just four weeks ago, they dismissed Le Pen as a “has been”. The French political establishment, together with the entire French political and chattering classes, has paid the price for inhabiting a world far removed from ordinary Frenchmen. They need to reconnect with the public. Prime Minister Jospin has at least done the right thing by accepting responsibility and resigning; indeed, in going so quickly, he has ironically acted with the dignity worthy of a president.
The question is whether the remainder, especially the victor-in-waiting, Jacques Chirac, have the humility to accept their own role in French alienation and the common sense to start listening. If lessons are learned from this shameful result, then well and good. If not, then France’s future could well belong to Le Pen.
