France is one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, a member of the G-8 group, a major military power, and one of the leading members of the EU. What it thinks and does is of immense importance, not least here in the Middle East, where its views have been substantially pro-Palestinian for years.
Given such standing, Jacques Chirac’s victory over the extreme right-wing candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential elections brings no small amount of relief to all who feared that one of the most civilized, not to mention most beautiful, countries in the world was about to embrace racism and political barbarism. The result is a victory for decency and humanity, a defeat of intolerance and extremism.
The scale of the victory is most impressive. No French presidential candidate has ever won with the support of four out of every five people voting. But the scale also indicates that this was not the contest that the French wanted. A substantial number of voters supported Chirac because they had no alternative. It was him or abstention — and to abstain in a two-horse race would have enlarged the scale of Le Pen’s support massively.
There can be no doubt that had Chirac ended up standing against the socialist candidate, outgoing Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, the voting would have been very different. Chirac might even have lost — for instead of being seen by most French as the only credible candidate, the spotlight would have been on his record in the fortnight between rounds one and two. In the event, the many unanswered questions in French minds about his honesty and suitability for such high office were swept aside by the way the system operated.
The fact that the far right’s supporters were not divided in round one, whereas the center-left’s were, brought about the wrong run-off. One of the issues that will have to be addressed before the next presidential election is how to prevent this happening again. Nonetheless, it would be a serious mistake both for the French establishment and the rest of us who look in from outside to imagine that the danger is past and that French life can go on as before. This is not the end of the story or of France’s threat from the far right. The fact that 19.5 percent of the electorate decided to abstain, despite the blast from every corner of the media and the establishment that France was in danger, that it was everyone’s duty to go out and vote for Chirac, and that 18 percent of those who voted did so for Le Pen indicates a worrying high level of alienation — together, exactly a third of the entire electorate — from mainstream French politics.
Chirac has wisely responded by appointing a moderate as interim prime minister but such a level of alienation cannot be ignored. Those in power in France have to be seen to respond to French public concerns. In particular, the sense of insecurity that has swept across France, mainly as a result of rising crime levels will have to be addressed. In the short term, though, it will be remarkable if the Le Pen’s National Front does not capitalize on his showing and perform unpleasantly well in next month’s legislative elections. They will not be allowed a foothold in government as a result — whatever the allegations about Chirac’s past probity, his determination to have nothing to do with the far right is to his immense credit.
But Chirac’s attempt to now present himself as the wellspring of democracy in France, the unifying force around which center-left and right can rally, itself poses dangers.
The worst thing that can happen is an all-party government that ends up being no different to what has gone before, which makes no changes. It will create massive new alienation. The left, which feels it has been hijacked into voting for Chirac because of electoral mechanics, together with the young, will turn on the system with fury as they did in 1968. The next five years will be a testing time for France.
