One of the major beneficiaries of the current crisis between India and Pakistan is Israel. That may not be so noticeable here in the Arab world where the plight of the Palestinians still commands maximum media coverage and public concern.
But it is not the case elsewhere. With international attention on the conflict between the nuclear-capable rivals, the Palestinians are no longer front-page news worldwide, even though there is no letup in the intensity of their struggle against Israeli oppression. Nor has the Israeli Army ended its incursions into West Bank towns and cities.
Nonetheless, by pushing the Middle East off the world’s front pages, the Kashmir crisis has taken the heat off Ariel Sharon. The chorus of international public opinion demanding that he rein in his storm troopers and make concessions has gone very mute. That is not so in the case of the principal actors: the European Union’s foreign policy supremo, Javier Solana, has for example just demanded that Israel pursue its plans for a peace conference and that they involve the Palestinians. But no one is paying much attention, not even in Europe. Sharon can afford to ignore the demand, particularly the bit about Palestinian participation.
The White House too finds the pressure off it from public opinion, not least American public opinion, to solve the Middle East issue. It is not that it has decided to ignore the region. Far from it. There will be a flurry of Middle East diplomacy in the US next week. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak visits Friday, Ariel Sharon (unexpectedly invited only this week) on Monday, followed by Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Shara a day later.
The White House says that these visits should be seen in the context of President Bush’s attempt to bring about peace in the region, and follow on the heels of visits by Crown Prince Abdullah and King Abdallah of Jordan. The plan, it says, is to build up momentum for the proposed multilateral peace summit which it would like to happen within the next two months.
But there will be no visit to the US by Yasser Arafat or any other Palestinian representative. No Palestinian will be there to discuss the summit or any other aspect of peace in the region. This lack of Palestinian input suggests that, with the pressure off because of the Kashmir crisis, Washington has finally fallen fully into line with Sharon’s views about keeping them away from any decisions. Sharon has made no attempt to disguise the fact that he wants to limit negotiations on a final peace treaty to bordering Arab states. He imagines that he can by-pass the Palestinians, arranging a deal over their heads which they will then be forced to accept.
The idea is a non-starter — which makes it all the more incomprehensible that Washington should have embraced it. There is no way that any Arab government will take part in a peace process that excludes the Palestinians or even relegates them to second-class participants. Such schemes negate the very self-determination that the Palestinians demand and the Arab world supports. It would not work anyway. The Palestinians will reject any agreement to which they are not fully party.
It is inevitable that the Kashmir crisis should take the heat off Tel Aviv and Washington. But why not use that to advantage? Instead of coming up with a process that will inevitably fail (and therefore result in renewed fury), Washington should use the time, away from the limelight and frenzy of public intrusion, to more calmly bridge the divide between Palestinians and Israelis. It is a golden opportunity. Sadly, no one, least of all the US, seems to realize it.
