Understanding Israeli politics is like trying to work your way out of a labyrinth.
Based upon the idea that Israel, as a nation, would have to represent numerous and diverse peoples and cultures, the Knesset was designed to al low just about any individual or group to form a political party. The result is 27 different parties all fighting for seats inside that council and all promoting their own agendas.
In the election last month, 16 of these 27 parties managed to win one or more seats by obtaining a minimum of 1.5 percent of the vote entitling the top listed representatives of their party to join the Knesset. Never in Israel ’s history has any one party managed to win enough seats to govern that country without creating a collation government with at least one other party.
The fact that recent Israel elect ions are drawing smaller and smaller percentages of voters to the polls — in 2001 only 62.3 percent of the population turned out to vote for prime minister, compounds the Knesset problem and splinters the 120 available seats into diverse groupings. This election was not an exception. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s Likud party won 29.39 percent of the seats which is short of the majority required to govern. Likud combined with Yisrael B ’Aliya Anglos party totals 40 seats. It is now up to Ariel Sharon to form a coalition government within the 42 days required by law.
The obvious choice is the Shinui party led by Tommy Lapid who surprised everyone by winning 15 seats. However, Shinui has made it very clear that they will not work with the Shas party that represents the ultra - orthodox Jews who are exactly what Lapid campaigned against. The Shinui party wants an agreement with the Palestinians on evacuating the Jewish settlements in occupied territories and to pursue the peace process with moderate Palestinians. If Ariel Sharon woos the Shinui party to form his new government, he may very well run the risk of alienating the more conservative religionist parties including Yisrael B ’Aliya Anglos, he Shas party and the National Religious Party.
It is interesting to note that the Shinui part y platform is more closely aligned with Amram Mitzna’s Labor party than it is with the Lukud. Just prior to the elections, Prime Minister Sharon told the New York Times, “I don’t doubt I will form the next government.
I won’t put myself in the hands of any radical parties, neither of the left nor of the right. I can’t have those who want to give up everything or those who want to keep every thing.
I need the center because we have to take painful steps”.
The center, to which he was referring is the Labor party. To form a government that is a combination of the available choices for him to make means including socialists like the Am Ehad, hard-line Zionists like the Herut, the Torah and the National Unity part y. His other choices are the peace-loving Meretz party or the Green Leaf party that ran on a plank of legalizing marijuana.
With the United States pressuring him for a cease-fire in occupied territories prior to any possible war on Iraq and the clock ticking for his new government to be presented to President Moshe Katsav, Ariel Sharon needs the Labor and the Shinui parties. That brings him back to Amram Mitzna.
Mitzna is standing firm on his campaign promise not to form a government with Ariel Sharon. The question is why? Having taken a beating in the election and having gone against the advise of some members of his own Labor party, Amram Mitzna is still holding the line.
I believe, Mitzna is willing to bet everything on Ariel Sharon not being able to bring all these diverse fractions together in time to present a united Israeli front to the United States and the world. In addition, as difficult as it is to believe in this day and age, Amram Mitzna is a man of integrity. He knows that the only hope for the Labor party is to return to its own ideals and to no longer play the role of the seconding voice to all but the most outrageous demands of Prime Minister Sharon.
Benjamin Ben-Eliezer and Shimon Peres have proven that capitulating to Ariel Sharon strips their Labor party of all creditability and leaves their supporters confused and without direction.
This is the long shot that Mitzna is willing to play. He may not succeed. If he fails he will have maintained his own integrity and even helped his party’s tarnished image and Prime Minister Sharon will find himself trying to navigate a sea of challenges in a very leaky vessel. If he succeeds then Israel will do what she does so of ten — call for yet another election.
-Adrienne McPhail is a freelance journalist based in Riyadh
— Arab News Features 18 February 2003
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