RIYADH, 17 March 2003 — The Kingdom is likely to remain the biggest exporter to Iraq in the Arab world even if there is a war, a senior official at the Saudi Council of Chambers said yesterday.

Ibrahim Foudah, executive director of the Saudi Export Development Center, said that exports to Iraq had been growing steadily within the confines of a UN oil-for-food program since they were first revived in 1999. An international trade fair in Baghdad last November gave the program a big boost, bringing the value of export contracts signed by Saudi companies so far this year to $146 million, versus $137 million in the whole of 2002, he said.

The biggest portion of the products exported is food, followed closely by machinery, cars, trucks and spare parts. “This trend may slow down if there is a war, but I’m not worried — it will pick up again afterward,” Foudah said.

At present, exports to Iraq make up a negligible portion of the Kingdom’s annual $8 billion of non-oil exports. But Foudah said Saudi Arabia has a 10 percent share of the total Iraqi market, putting it ahead of other Arab states although well behind the United States, Germany and France.

The Kingdom’s developed manufacturing base, competitively priced products, geographical proximity and in some cases, traditional family ties with Iraq, would help it keep or expand its market share, he said.

“We are the largest manufacturer of pipes and cables in the region — definitely they will need our products one way or another to build their infrastructure,” he said.

Around 80 Saudi businessmen took part in the delegation which visited Iraq last November, ending a hiatus in visits since the 1991 Gulf war. A border crossing at the northern town of Arar was re-opened for the occasion, allowing delegates to travel to Baghdad by road and opening the way for trucks laden with goods. Foudah said the delegates were greeted with open arms by Iraqi authorities, and around $70 million worth of new export contracts were signed.

He voiced deep concern about the impact on the region’s economy if US military forces in the Gulf launched a war on Iraq.

“I think if there is a war it will take longer than they think — I only see a 50-50 chance that Iraqis will embrace change,” he said. The fact that many Iraqis have long been exposed to government propaganda telling them not to trust the outside world, along with a cult support for President Saddam Hussein would make changes forced by foreigners hard to accept, he said.