With all attention focused north, major problems in the Kingdom have once again been relegated to the backburner. That’s a pity because with the passing of time, Saudi Arabia’s manageable economic and social difficulties are evolving into looming catastrophes. The cover feature in the March 2003 issue of the “Saudi Commerce and Economic Review” magazine, “Galloping Population Adds Urgency to Saudization,” is truly frightening. Statistics, conclusions and action plans put forward in this cover story in regards to the Saudi population and the labor market, were drawn from reports released by the government and global organizations including the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Ministry of Planning and the United Nations.

According to figures from the Central Department of Statistics (CDS), the Kingdom’s total population reached 23.37 million in mid-2002 as compared to 22.69 million in mid-2001, denoting an annual population growth rate of 3 percent. That rate is considered to be high in comparison with average Middle East population growth rates of 2 percent, and a world population growth rate of 1.2 percent. It is even worse if you look at the increase of the Saudi population alone, which was estimated to have grown by 3.4 percent from 16.77 million in 2001 to 17.34 million in 2002, with a total population dominance of males over females of about 90,000.

There are several reasons for the massive continuing Saudi population growth. Saudis are living longer. Average Saudi life expectancy is estimated to reach 72.2 years during the period 2000-2005. Mortality rates for Saudi infants have declined. Plus, Saudi women bear many children. The average fertility rate during the period 1995-2000 was 6.2 infants per woman; high compared to the world rate of 2.8 infants. The Saudi fertility rate is expected to decline to between 5.0 and 4.5 infants per woman during the period 2005-2015. However, this figure is still high, compared to world fertility rates in those same years, estimated by the UN to be 2.5-2.6 infants per woman.

Coupled with the rise in population, the demographic structure of the Kingdom also has changed dramatically. UN statistics on the geographic breakdown of the Kingdom’s population shows that the ratio of urban population to total population rose to 85.7 percent during 2000. This is one of the highest rates in the world. The three most populous areas of the Kingdom in order are: Makkah/Jeddah, Riyadh and the Eastern Province. Almost one half, 48.8 percent, of the Kingdom’s total population is concentrated in the combined Makkah/Jeddah and Riyadh regions.

Interestingly, in the three main regions of the Kingdom in 2000, there were 9.1 million Saudis compared to 4.1 million expatriates. This means that expatriates attracted to the Kingdom for economic reasons, put a disproportionately high stress level on urban resources of major cities, including infrastructure and services. Males made up 66.8 percent of all expatriates, resulting in a very low dependency ratio. This implies a relatively low level of consumption expenditure, represented in demand for goods and services compared to their remittances.

While Saudi population distribution throughout all of the Kingdom’s urban regions is more rational than that of expatriates, Saudi population breakdown figures are seriously disturbing. Youth groups continue to dominate Saudi population. Saudis below 30 years of age account for 72.6 percent of the total population. Children under 15 years of age constitute 45.2 percent of the total. These high population percentages amongst youngsters are contributing to the rise in the dependency rate.

If the total number of Saudi children is added to the population of the age group 65 and over, fully 49 percent of the total Saudi population is well outside the labor market. Most of these 49 percent are dependent for support on the approximately 8.5 million Saudis of working age. It is difficult to know what percentage of these 8.5 million individuals would be interested in employment. However, according to the CDS, in 1999, only 346,000 Saudi women and 2.25 million Saudi males had jobs. In that same year, three million expatriates were employed in the Kingdom. It is estimated that since 1999, only about 175,000 jobs were created in the government and private sectors for 340,000 new entrants to the Saudi male labor force.

If those numbers are not bad enough to cause serious anxiety, then consider that while the Saudi unemployment rate is rising, the average wages for Saudis, both male and female, are falling. According to SAMA’s Annual Report, the average wages of Saudis declined by 2.9 percent from SR6,757 in 2000 to SR6,560 in 2001. This decline in wages is especially serious for Saudi women when it is considered that in 2001 the overall average wages of women were less than half the overall average wages for men.

While women may be struggling in the areas of employment and wages, they are forging ahead in education. According to SAMA’s Annual Report, while the number of female students is lower than the number of male students in the general education population, 47.7 percent of the total in 2001, at the higher education level, females outnumber males. Statistics from the Ministry of Higher Education show that female students represented 57.8 percent of total university enrollment in 2001 and 58.85 of total graduates. In 2001 women accounted for 65.5 percent of total new students in the Kingdom’s bachelor degree programs. Unfortunately, both government and non-governmental investigations have concluded that many university students will earn degrees in religion or the humanities, which are not sought after in the job market.

The numbers are challenging and so are the numerous plans to rationalize the labor force and protect the Saudi economy. What is certain is that action, not talk, is urgently required. One of the long-term goals of the Saudi Manpower Council is perhaps the most necessary. It reads: “Implant and dedicate the concept of affiliation, patriotism and positive work ethics in Saudi society.” If just this one goal succeeded, a better future for Saudis and Saudi Arabia would certainly be on the horizon.

Arab News Features 28 March 2003