DOHA, Qatar, 4 April 2003 — As Anglo-American forces battle Iraq’s Republican Guards divisions ever closer to the outskirts of Baghdad, a far more elusive, yet equally critical mission must be accomplished by military planners before the US/UK alliance can declare victory: Breaking Saddam Hussein’s spell over his people.

The inability of the US-led coalition to break the Iraqi president’s grip over a frightened and panicked people in the first days of fighting looms as a serious early shortcoming in the second Gulf War. It is one reason the conflict has been both unexpectedly tough and increasingly messy.

Though there were some signs Wednesday of progress — US troops severely weakened two Republican Guard divisions south of the capital and were enthusiastically welcomed by residents in the central town of Najaf — those who know Iraq and the Middle East believe that Saddam’s legacy, unless it is broken fully and quickly, may be transformed from that of a ruthless dictator to a pan-Arab hero and patriot who refused to succumb to powerful invaders. Such an image could haunt the alliance’s postwar occupation of Iraq, possibly with catastrophic consequences.

“If he’s able to re-create a sense of Arab nationalism, even temporarily, then that will become a serious problem for the allies,’’ said Michael Clark, director of the International Policy Institute at Kings College, London. “The longer this spell lasts, the more difficult everything becomes.’’

Military planners and political analysts refer to this ephemeral goal as “tipping’’ — essentially that moment, which appeared to have occurred Wednesday in Najaf, when Iraqis are convinced that Saddam’s power has evaporated. It is the instant of public release from the psychological grip of a regime whose level of brutality has cowed and terrified Iraqis for the better part of a generation.

At that moment, planners believe, the Iraqi people themselves will turn against the pillars of Saddam’s power, crush resistance to the American-led invasion, and generate an implosion of ruling Baath Party’s power that will assure victory for the alliance. Expecting that this moment would occur quickly stands as one of the most serious miscalculations of the war.

Breaking Saddam’s rule of fear has been a top priority for war planners from the outset. According to US Central Command headquarters, the Iraqi population has been showered by no less than 28 million allied leaflets, many of them directed at breaking Saddam’s spell. One accuses him of amassing riches while the people starve.

On Wednesday, a US Air Force warplane destroyed the Baath Party headquarters in Najaf as troops of the 101st Airborne Division took care to see that a historic mosque survived the fighting intact.

So far, however, such efforts have produced few results, partly because allies misjudged the virulence of those forces loyal to Saddam and the level of fear still felt by the Iraqi people. Saddam issued brief but aggressive exhortations to his people Tuesday and Wednesday, one of them urging citizens “to fight the invaders everywhere until they leave the nation.’’ The fact his messages were delivered by proxies was viewed as an encouraging sign by US planners, who speculated Saddam may have been physically unable to appear or have felt it was too unsafe. Still, his words alone were a reminder to Iraqis, not just that the dictator’s regime remained very much alive, but that Saddam himself is the ultimate survivor. “He lands on his feet every time,’’ noted a senior military officer at the US Central Command headquarters in Doha, Qatar. “He’s everything, everywhere.’’

Probes into urban areas by Anglo-American forces are especially problematic, often leaving residents with what can seem to be life-or-death choices. A wave to an Anglo-American soldier might result in summary executions by Baathist or paramilitary fighters once allied troops leave. But with civilian deaths climbing, residents appear equally convinced that anything perceived as a hostile act toward the invaders also could bring death.

An Arab television reporter who entered the southern city of Basra late last week said residents shouted pro-Saddam slogans into the camera. But once filming stopped, the people explained that any other reaction was too risky so long as Baath Party functionaries remained in the area. US forces report that in some towns, local residents have pointed out buildings belonging to Saddam’s instruments of power, but it remained unclear what happens to these residents once the Americans moved on.

Anglo-American planners and regional specialists believe there have been other miscalculations, too. Among them:

— A senior US officer acknowledged that the military’s much-touted propaganda campaign — millions of leaflets, radio broadcasts and direct contact — has failed to adequately sway the Iraqi people to support the US-led invasion. American planners did not understand the control that a totalitarian regime can wield, he admitted, nor did they understand cultural differences in shaping their message.

Others agree.

“It has all been overly simplistic,’’ said Clark of Kings College. “It needs to be more subtle, more determined.`

— Americans also have not been able to dispel the deep-seated mistrust with which Iraqis regard them, said a senior US officer in Doha who requested anonymity. The failure of coalition forces to support a domestic Iraqi rebellion during the 1991 Gulf War has never been forgotten.

The officer acknowledged that the devastating bombardment of a cherished city like Baghdad, plus the killing of civilians and other missteps, could turn Iraqis further against Americans.

“When they have absolutely no understanding of what’s happening around them — it may well be stiffening their resolve for fighting for the regime,’’ the officer told a group of journalists.

— Conditions in Iraqi cities have sharply deteriorated since the military campaign began March 20. The civilian casualties, the loss of drinking water and the shortage of humanitarian aid have caused many Iraqis to equate the arrival of Anglo-American forces with a deepening of personal misery. International assistance agencies have criticized meager efforts carried out so far to deliver food, medical supplies and other goods. In some instances, delivery of aid has triggered unseemly melees in which only the strong have come away with goods.

“The United States has to up its game on the hearts-and-minds issue,’’ Clark said. “Otherwise there is a real danger that Saddam’s spell can last beyond his death.’’

Saddam’s ability to at least slow the invasion — an event totally unexpected in the wider Arab world — has heightened his image in a region desperately short of heroes since Egypt’s pan-Arab President Gamal Abdel Nasser passed from the scene over three decades ago.

“If Saddam hadn’t fought like this, he would quickly have gone into obscurity,’’ said Sharif Elmusa, director of Middle East Studies at the American University in Cairo. “Now he’s being lionized, he’s going to go down in Arab history as someone who stood up to foreign invaders.’’

Saddam’s survival also has unsettled Arab governments which have given support to the US-led attack despite the mood of anti-Americanism in the region. Vivid accounts of human suffering televised across the Arab world has steadily fanned emotions.

“The situation is so volatile that even two to three weeks of (Saddam’s) additional survival might prove disastrous to some of these states,’’ Clark said.

But with the war entering its third week, US military planners say they are beginning to see the first signs that Hussein’s aura may be weakening.