TEHRAN, 10 April 2003 — Iran’s joy at the likely fall of its hated neighbor Saddam Hussein is tempered by the realization that its other arch-foe, the United States, is likely to intensify pressure for change in the Islamic Republic.

Washington, buoyed by military successes in quick succession against the Taleban in Afghanistan and Saddam in Iraq, will turn the screws — economic and diplomatic — on other states it sees as a threat to world security, analysts and diplomats said.

The fall of Saddam, who fired chemical weapons at Iran in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, will be a day “of great joy for all Iranians”, Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi told Reuters.

But the speed and relative ease with which US troops have taken control of Baghdad has many in Iran’s clerical establishment looking nervously over their shoulders.

“The fact that Saddam has nearly been toppled in just 21 days is something that should concern all countries in this region,” a senior adviser to Iran’s government told Reuters. “After this America has become a much more powerful nation,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Iran is on Washington’s “Axis of Evil” list and US officials have issued stern warnings to the Islamic Republic that it must halt its alleged nuclear weapons program and backing for groups Washington deems “terrorist” organizations.

Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons and says it only offers moral support to militant groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

Few in Tehran expect President George W. Bush to stage a military assault on Iran, which is one of the most democratic states in the Middle East. US and British officials have denied Iran will face military action.

But Iran will be feeling more heat from Washington before long, analysts said.

“The US has a lot on its plate right now but within six months to a year Washington’s attention will be firmly focused on Iran,” said a local political analyst.

“I expect the pressure to build and the main focus will probably be on the nuclear issue,” he said.

Some analysts do not rule out a tactical military strike against one of Iran’s recently declared nuclear facilities, such as a uranium enrichment plant in Natanz which Iran says will provide fuel for an ambitious atomic energy program.

But pressure, driven by powerful Israeli-supporting lobbies who see Iran as the biggest security threat in the Middle East, is likely to focus on trying to force it to sign up to more intrusive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Economic avenues are also likely to be explored and the Pentagon has been considering blacklisting oil firms that invest in Iran from taking part in the reconstruction of Iraq’s oil facilities, according to a recent Financial Times report.

“You may also see an effort to nurture and fortify some kind of opposition given the apparent frustration in Washington with (President Mohammad) Khatami’s inability to take things forward,” said the analyst.

“The problem is that, right now, there isn’t really a viable opposition movement,” he added.

Iranian officials refer to such US tactics as a “software” war, as opposed to the “hardware” war of military confrontation.