Since the end of the Iraq war, Saudi and other Arab businessmen have been eagerly eyeing the prospect of future involvement there. It has resulted in a flurry of reconnaissance visits by potential investors, keen to stake a claim both on the country’s massive reconstruction plans and in its longer-term prospects — which, given that it represents a massive market for every commodity and service imaginable and has vast amounts of water to boot, should be enough to make it a major Arab economic power. There are already opportunities there to be had. Even though the US government has given reconstruction contracts only to American companies, there will be lucrative subcontracts for Arab contractors and suppliers; language, location, and the competitive edge that location brings, make that a certainty.
But much is now at risk. The news that a Saudi businessman was kidnapped in Iraq and had to pay $25,000 to be released, and that another remains held by kidnappers, will throw a spanner in the works. Much of Iraq is still bandit country. Without a stable and effective government able to enforce law and order, even Iraqis themselves are in danger from the rising tide of gangsterism and power struggles. These two kidnappings have to be seen as a sign of things to come. While the power vacuum remains, there will be more abductions of foreign businessmen, not fewer; they represent rich pickings, particularly to the new and growing Iraqi mafia. Certainly, kidnappings and killings were both the experience of Russia during its power vacuum after the collapse of its dictatorial regime.
Obviously the authorities, which means the Americans, need to crack down — and hard. In fact, as is shown by the arrest of the interim governor of Najaf whom they themselves appointed, they are trying to do precisely that. Abu Haidar Abdul Munim has been charged with kidnapping and corruption. But they do not have sufficient forces or skills to keep the lid on the growing mafia in Iraq. Moreover, there is a serious risk that in cracking down, the US will make heroes out of crooks. It would be disaster if the Iraqi public were to rally around mafia figures simply because they have been targeted by the American military.
Iraq is going to be a dangerous place for some time to come even though 30 countries have now promised to send forces there. A US Senate team visiting Baghdad this week said as much. Certainly everyone thinking of going there will now think twice. Thus the lack of law and order is bound to delay the country’s economic rebirth. Yet without that rebirth, the country will remain sullen, resentful and a breeding ground for all sorts of undesirable developments.
It is a vicious circle.
