The Palestinian-Israeli truce, now in its eighth day, is holding and more talks in the coming days may further cement the truce. However, with the complex nature of the conflict, it is totally within reason to assume that unrest may still flare up. Violence could erupt again at any moment.
One note that calls for caution is that discussions between the two sides are being held on what appear to be largely Israeli terms. Israel appears to be filling in the details of the road map to best suit its perceived interests. The Israeli Army will not withdraw from any more Palestinian cities until it sees that Palestinian security officers are acting against activists in Bethlehem and the Gaza Strip, where Israeli forces pulled back this week. Again, while Israel’s Cabinet is to consider releasing hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, such considerations will not mollify Palestinians.
Israel will not begin substantive political negotiations over such questions as Jerusalem until the Palestinians have fully broken up activist groups, confiscating their weapons, arresting what Israel describes as dangerous members and ending all “incitement” to violence. That could take years.
Sharon has spoken the language of peace. “Even if we are required to make painful compromises, I will be willing to make them for the sake of true peace — a peace for generations, the peace that we all yearn for.” That was Sharon in recent days. But nice words do not an agreement make, especially in the Middle East. What Sharon regards as painful — the abandoning of some settlements and the end of the old dream of an Israeli state from the Mediterranean Sea to the River Jordan — is regarded as inadequate by the Palestinians, who demand a return to the lines of 1967 including Jerusalem. Sharon did mention the word “occupation” publicly for the first time, saying he believed it to be terrible. Facing reality is indeed one major step toward a solution. But the solution calls for, among other things, a halt in settlement expansion: Not only evacuating a handful of illegal settlers from barren hilltops but dismantling flourishing townships and villagers where Jews have lived for decades.
Is Sharon capable? For many years, he has been the architect and ardent supporter of the settlement drive. His belief in the military importance of these areas to Israel is augmented by his equally strong conviction that Jews have the right to settle anywhere in the land of Israel.
A second reason why Sharon will find it difficult, maybe impossible, to obey the rules of the road map is that dismantling settlements, pulling back from territory and allowing the creation of a state might be perceived as a reward for the Palestinians for having undertaken the intifada.
