In France’s problem island of Corsica, the voters have just said No to plans for limited autonomy, albeit only just. There was a two percent gap between the Yes and No votes — 51 percent against, 49 percent in favor, but that gap made all the difference.

Corsica is France’s intractable problem, its equivalent of Spain’s Basque issue and the UK’s Northern Irish issue.

It is intractable because there is no middle ground. Although the majority of Corsicans want to remain French, the nationalists demand independence and, although a minority, there are plenty of them and they are determined; for almost three decades, violence has been an all-too familiar aspect of Corsican politics. Moreover, they tap into a resentment of Paris felt by many who still want to remain French. Rather like the Palestinians supporting the suicide bombers yet appalled by them, large numbers of Corsicans, while horrified at the violence, empathize with those involved in it. Meanwhile Paris is determined that the island must remain part of France at all costs.

The tragedy of the No vote in the referendum is that it means that the campaign for independence will continue and with it the bombs and the killings.

For that, the French government has only itself to blame. What was on offer — a shrewd attempt to square the circle by giving Corsica sufficient autonomy as to weaken the nationalist cause while keeping the island in France — could have worked. It would have been voted through had it not been for the dramatic arrest, a few hours earlier, of France’s most wanted man, Yvan Colonna, suspected of involvement in the assassination of France’s most senior official on Corsica in 1998. The arrest of a man regarded by many Corsicans as a Robin Hood figure changed everything. Many nationalists had intended to vote Yes, believing that the plan could be the first step toward independence, but the arrest was too much for them. Their boycott lost it enough votes to kill it.

Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy must have known that that this would happen. He obviously decided that the vote was worth losing. But it would have made more sense to get the referendum over and then arrest Colonna. Sarkozy’s job must now be in question.

The Corsican plan was very much his baby: he campaigned hard for it. He will now be in the firing line, all the more so because this is his second high-profile failure in just weeks; his plans for an official council to represent France’s Muslims is also in turmoil as a result of the victory in elections to the council of militant-supporting hard-liners. He may be able to rescue that plan, but the Corsican debacle is bound to result in more bombs, more deaths. It is a tragedy.