WASHINGTON, 12 August 2003 — Numerous Democratic strategists have become convinced in recent months that their party is unlikely to pick up the dozen seats it needs to retake the House, even in the face of a sluggish economy and mounting questions about Iraq that could be issues to use against the Republican-dominated administration.
Analysts who have been following the early battle for control of the 435-member House say there is a relative lack of public anger to fuel anti-incumbent voting and a strong GOP fund-raising effort under way that will be difficult for Democrats to surmount.
The biggest factor, however, is one that has thwarted Democratic hopes before and, if anything, is growing: Congressional redistricting has produced a remarkably small number of competitive districts nationwide. As a result, Democrats must win a huge percentage of the toss-up races to regain the House majority they lost a decade ago.
“There’s just not enough districts in play,’’ said Stuart Rothenberg, who edits the Rothenberg Political Report. Democrats “will need a wave’’ to win back the House, he said — and thus far, no such wave seems to be forming. As Republican pollster Glen Bolger put it, Democrats “have to draw a royal flush to take back the House. I’ve never had one of those.’’
Most of the redistricting damage was done two years ago, when the states used the 2000 census’s data to redraw congressional maps and lock hundreds of House members into safe districts — thus helping to protect the Republican majority, which now stands at 229 to 205 (plus one liberal independent). The Democrats’ task will become even tougher if Texas Republicans — who control the legislature and governorship — succeed in their effort to redraw US House districts yet again in a bid to give the GOP an excellent chance of ousting several Democrats 15 months from now.
Given these problems, even the most gung- ho Democrats now speak of only modest gains next year, hoping to lay the groundwork for a House takeover in 2006, when Republicans will not have President Bush at the top of the ticket.
“In terms of basic vitals — money, recruitment and the message environment — all the signs are pointed toward a slight gain for us,’’ said Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.), a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee vice chairman and former Clinton White House aide.
At first glance, Democratic hopes for retaking the House in 2004 would seem quite plausible. The nation is split virtually 50-50 between the two major parties, as Al Gore’s popular-vote victory (but Electoral College loss) showed in 2000. More recently, Bush’s popularity has fallen as US troops continue to suffer losses in Iraq. Some Democrats see even bigger political openings in the high unemployment rate and lumbering economy. But top analysts say nearly everything would have to fall the Democrats’ way for them to regain the House, and thus far that is not happening.
For one thing, Republicans appear to retain their traditional edge in raising money. “My vulnerable guys aren’t sitting out there with ferocious opponents,’’ said Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds (N.Y.), who chairs the House GOP’s campaign committee. “They’ll have races, sure. But (the Democrats) have work to do.’’
Meanwhile, Democrats are moving slowly in at least one potentially fertile district. Two prominent Pennsylvania Democrats recently opted not to vie for the Lehigh Valley seat that Rep. Pat Toomey (R) is vacating to run for the Senate. T.J. Rooney became state Democratic chairman, and Bethlehem Mayor Don Cunningham joined Gov. Edward Rendell’s Cabinet. Meanwhile, GOP state Sen. Charles Dent of Allentown has entered the race and has $250,000 in campaign cash.
Things look more promising for Democrats in Indiana. Republican Rep. John Hostettler’s re-election campaign had only
Some analysts say the biggest potential threat to Republicans next year — including Bush and Senate candidates — would involve a severe economic downturn. Reynolds, the GOP’s House campaign chief, said: “If the economy goes into the tank, then it’s hand-to-hand combat and our job to hold 218 seats’’ — just enough for a majority.
