BEIRUT, 12 August 2003 — The killing of an Israeli teenager by Hezbollah anti-aircraft fire may not open up a new front on the Lebanese-Israeli border, but whether tensions sizzle or fade depends on the group’s next move.
Israeli warplanes and troops blasted the outskirts of villages in South Lebanon on Sunday after anti-aircraft fire from the Shiite group killed a 16-year-old Israeli.
The death was the first fatality from cross-border Hezbollah fire in Israel since the Jewish state withdrew its troops from south Lebanon in 2000 under pressure from guerrilla attacks. Hezbollah in the past has frequently fired on Israeli planes flying over Lebanese airspace. Israel has said it will continue such flights, calling them reconnaissance missions. “I don’t foresee a serious escalation. It depends on how Hezbollah will respond to the Israeli actions and whether they will escalate a new round,” said Magnus Ranstorp, a terrorism lecturer at St Andrews University in Scotland.
“It depends on whether there will be more mysterious assassinations. That might make them more active,” he added.
The border flareup followed the killing of a Hezbollah official in a bomb blast in Beirut on Aug. 2. Hezbollah blamed the attack on Israel and said it would not go unpunished.
Six days later the group attacked Israeli positions in the disputed Shebaa Farms border area.
Tensions had risen between Israel and the Shiite group since Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah threatened late last month to kidnap more Israelis unless there was a breakthrough in stalled prisoner swap talks.
Hezbollah kidnapped three Israeli soldiers months after the end of Israel’s 22-year occupation in May 2000, and announced soon afterward that it had snatched an Israeli colonel.
Analysts say Hezbollah may not view the attack in the Shebaa Farms, site of sporadic clashes since Israel’s pullout, or its almost daily anti-aircraft barrages, as strong enough messages. “I think if Hezbollah does want to carry this further, which it probably will, considering its threat...quite possibly there might be some kind of security operation within Israel itself,” said Amal Saad Ghorayeb, a lecturer at the Lebanese American University. “Nothing Nasrallah ever says is an empty threat.”
Israel has threatened to hold Syria responsible for any new Hezbollah strikes. Israeli officials signaled they hope diplomatic pressure on Syria via Israeli ally Washington and the United Nations can avert new violence.
“The fact that Israel lodged a complaint with the United Nations is a sign it doesn’t want to escalate tensions,” said Ghorayeb, author of “Inside Hezbollah: Politics and Religion”. But Israel is coupling diplomacy with a warning to Syria that it will be targeted if Hezbollah shelling continues.
“If this does not help and Israel has to step up the pressure in the field, the military option exists to restore a deterrent factor and remind Syria and Hezbollah just what Israel is capable of militarily,” Deputy Defence Minister Zeev Boim told Israel Radio. Syria has made no public response.
Israel and Hezbollah are both showing some restraint in their latest confrontation. Israel has not hit Syrian targets in Lebanon, or Lebanese infrastructure. Hezbollah has not used its arsenal of rockets against Israel.
“The rules of the game are the same, one of proportionality. I don’t think we can see a major escalation, but certainly a change in tone,” Ranstorp said.
“Hezbollah is cornered. It has been cornered for a long time in the sense of limiting the attacks against the Shebaa Farms,” he said referring to the group’s general policy of attacking Israeli forces only in an area which it claims for Lebanon.
The United Nations views Shebaa Farms as Israeli-occupied Syrian land and says Israel’s pullout from Lebanon was complete. Washington has piled pressure on Syria and Lebanon in recent months to rein in Hezbollah, which it holds responsible for a 1983 attack on a US Marines barracks in Beirut that killed 241 Americans.
Analysts say Hezbollah would not risk crossing Syria or losing the support of the Lebanese public by launching an attack that could prompt Israel to unleash its anger across the border. Clashes in the Shebaa Farms and anti-aircraft fire can be considered within the rules of the game, allowing Hezbollah to respond to the assassination of its official, without triggering a major Israeli retaliation or disciplinary action by Syria.
“Hezbollah has not really crossed any red lines regarding Lebanon or Syria’s security interests. There is no justification for Syria to clamp down on Hezbollah,” Ghorayeb said. In 2001, Israel responded to a Hezbollah attack in Shebaa Farms by striking a Syrian position in Lebanon, where Damascus keeps some 15,000 troops, killing three Syrian soldiers.
Border violence could also damage Israel’s summer tourism in the Galilee and crimp Beirut’s attempt to regain its status as an Arab tourist magnet. But tour operators were not worried.
“There’s a feeling that we are returning to normal and yesterday’s incident should be seen as a one-off,” said Moshe Givati, manager of the Rosh Hanikra cave complex on the border with Lebanon.
