While it may be that the capture in Thailand of so significant a wanted terrorist as Hambali has perhaps dealt a serious blow to the Jemaah Islamiah wing of Al-Qaeda, the jubilant prediction of a Thai government official that the group has been smashed in his country should be treated with caution.
Yet there is no doubt that little by little the terrorists are being tracked down. What once may have seemed the advantage of the wide international spread of their operations is now proving a problem. The key weakness is their need to communicate and coordinate the movement of materiel and information. Cell phones use networks that are easily monitored by intelligence agencies and worse, can be used to pinpoint the exact location of those having the conversation, no matter how brief. Landline networks are only slightly more difficult to penetrate. The only secure way to keep in touch is to use runners, who must travel internationally to deliver messages. This however means that if a runner is spotted moving through passport control, he can be followed and might lead intelligence agents to a senior terrorist. On top of this, the authorities are using extensive analysis of international cash transfers to spot the movement of terrorist funds. In the process, life has also been made difficult for drug barons and other international money launderers.
Despite all these measures, however, the terrorists are still operating. There are many more Hambalis out there and of course there is still the number one target — Osama Bin Laden himself. One thing that has become evident in the hunt by police and intelligence agencies around the world is that it was not a matter of luck that the Al-Qaeda network survived the invasion of Afghanistan and the destruction of its camps and infrastructure there. There was considerable planning as to how the network would survive the loss of its center. That planning may well have included the loss of Bin Laden himself. The network that he put in place appears to have been equipped with many fail-safe measures to allow it to survive the destruction of even an important element.
Therefore it would be wise to brace ourselves for further outrages, even as more and more of the key terrorists fall into the hands of their pursuers. When all is said and done, the initiative always rests with the attacker. He may lose the opportunity to launch a sensational attack against one international target but there will always be another opportunity and another target. And worse, as the leadership of the network is rolled up, the people who step in to take their places will be harder to identify.
So while the Thai authorities are to be congratulated on Hambali’s capture, the “decisive battle” that Crown Prince Abdullah has spoken about will be neither simple nor quick.
