LOS ANGELES, 20 August 2003 — This month thousands of people will stand in line for days for a chance to audition and become the next American Idol. It is a brutal process — the rules specify that contestants can be cut for any reason or “for no reason at all!” In the first audition this month, one Ruben Studdard wannabe was cut so fast he complained that he barely had a chance to warm up.

Pity the nine contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination. They too have barely had a chance to warm up and yet their judges, the Democratic voters, are already busy looking around for someone else.

It is a peculiar paradox: As Democrats become more convinced this year that they can beat President Bush, they also become more convinced that no one now running can beat him. This often happens to the out party, but it happens especially to Democrats.

Unlike their more disciplined opposition, Democrats never seem to have anyone who can say to some of the more unlikely presidential wannabes: “What on Earth are you doing in this line?” The inclusion of so many marginal candidates in the race — President Sharpton? — inevitably makes the whole pack look decidedly less presidential.

This year, the pre-election jitters are especially bad. Democrats got used to having their own rock star — Bill Clinton — around. And frankly, compared to him, everyone sounds out of tune. And then Sept. 11, war and the possibility of another terror attack gave all the Democrats a bad case of stage fright, as witnessed by their pathetic performance in the midyear elections.

And so, many Democrats, unhappy with their would-be idols, have been indulging in rescue fantasies.

Fantasy No. 1: The General. Wesley Clark was commander of NATO and led America’s involvement in the Balkans. He is often on television and gives the spit-and-polish performance one would expect of a classy general who was also a Rhodes scholar. But it’s not clear that Clark has much of a feel for politics, the Democratic Party, Medicare, day care, education and all the other things that tend to make the president’s job more than a day at the Council on Foreign Relations. I have a strong suspicion that generals are always better in the abstract than in reality. Dwight D. Eisenhower was the exception — and then again, the Balkans were not exactly the invasion of Normandy.

Fantasy No. 2: Revenge of the Nerd. Former Vice President Al Gore took himself out of the presidential race last December. And yet, in recent weeks politicians and fund raisers who did nothing but complain about Gore last fall have been advocating him as the party’s best chance against Bush.

There is even a draft-Gore movement working hard to get him into the race.

Gore is not likely to succumb to such flattery because he’s been around the track so much that he knows that these bubbles come and go. But he used the interest in him to come out and show the other candidates how it’s done. In a speech in New York last week, he laid out the case against Bush — on Iraq, on the economy and on the environment — and concluded that, “When you put it all together, it was just one mistaken impression after another.”

Fantasy No. 3: Madonna. Were Sen. Hillary Clinton to enter the race, the effect would be electrifying. This summer, when even “American Idol” has taken a pause during TV’s dog days, she has been on a tour for a book that is breaking records for nonfiction. Thousands are lining up to see her and to buy the book. She appears on all the must-appear political shows, such as Jay Leno’s “Tonight Show,” looking confident and happy to be her own person at last.

When Clinton set up a website the other day, it received 2 million hits in 24 hours. Take that, Howard Dean! More than one Democrat has reported attending a fundraiser for one of the nine people already in the race only to discover that everyone there was talking about Clinton.

But most people think she will wait till next time. She has been careful to take her own political career step by step. She has just begun to serve on the Armed Services Committee, which will prepare her for commander in chiefdom — a reach for a woman candidate.

Her low-profile, get-along style in the Senate is indicative of a woman who understands that in the United States it’s tough to inherit political power; it needs to be earned. (As with most things, this applies more to women than to men.) By 2008, she will be a seasoned politician who will probably not have to stand in line with thousands to become the Democratic idol, so why jump now?

Fantasy No. 4: Another old, white, male US senator. You may be wondering why this was a fantasy. Well, it turned out not to be. This week, Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware took himself out of the race.

With nothing going for him but a good reputation for beating the you-know-what out of Bush administration officials, Biden realized that it is nearly impossible for mere mortals to run for president from a standing start.

In the “American Idol” TV show, there are no late entries. And pop stars with agents and record contracts are expressly forbidden. In theory, a big star, like Hillary Clinton, could get into the race in the week before the convention and try to convince the delegates to vote for him or her. But in practice, late Democratic Idol entries are as impossible as late “American Idol” entries.

It takes time to build a team, get on 30 or 40 state ballots before the deadlines pass, and raise money, even in the Internet era. And late-entering stars who bolt to the head of the pack would engender hostility from those who had been standing in line for months.

Let’s face it. Just as the next American Idol is one of those kids standing in line for three days in the sweltering August heat, the next Democratic Idol is, right now, loping through Iowa or New Hampshire in the sweltering August heat.