SINGAPORE, 16 October 2003 — When the great and good of the Asia-Pacific region gather in Thailand next week for an economic summit, one regional state will be absent.
North Korea may not be a member of the club, but its nuclear program is likely to be on the minds of those taking part in the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.
“Last year the United States, South Korea and Japan signed up to a very strong statement,” said Ralph Cossa, head of the Pacific Forum CSIS think-tank in Hawaii. “We are going to have to see no weakening in that.”
But reclusive North Korea must be hoping that elections or domestic crises gripping its chief political foes — the United States, South Korea and Japan — will deflect attention from the dispute over its nuclear ambitions. South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, in the grip of a political crisis and eager to promote a policy of engaging the North, may be the weakest link, analysts say. Since inconclusive six-party talks involving North and South Korea, Japan, the United States, Russia and Japan in Beijing last August, Pyongyang’s isolated Communist rulers have been reluctant to set a date for another round. US President George W. Bush, meeting the other four interlocutors in Bangkok next week, is certain to push them to stick to multilateral negotiations — particularly Roh who dropped a bombshell this week by announcing he would call a referendum on his rule.
“Bush will try to get some words — or better — out of this group,” said North Korea expert Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, referring to the five countries that have all opposed the presence of nuclear arms on the Korean Peninsula.
“Roh goes into the meeting as a man who seems to be contemplating political suicide... as a frontline state dealing with the DPRK that is rather problematic,” he said, using the acronym that North Korea uses as the name of its state. “Any chain is as strong as its weakest link and the weak link is South Korea,” said Eberstadt.
One diplomat saw the APEC summit as an opportunity for the five to iron out any differences and to present a unified front on North Korea with a view to talks in November.
“There is still considerable room for China to play a mediator role,” said the diplomat, referring to Beijing’s key role in bringing North Korea to the negotiating table and to reports it is even considering sending Communist Party number two Wu Bangguo, the parliamentary chief, to visit Pyongyang.
“Wu’s visit to Pyongyang, if realized, could open the door for the North to come forward,” he said.
“I believe North Korea is carefully calculating the timing of Wu’s visit,” he said, adding that the APEC summit outcome could be key to determining the timing of a visit by one of the highest-ranking Chinese officials to visit the North for several years.
Wu’s visit has been leaked, and delayed, for weeks now. That move, analysts say, was a reflection of North Korean frustrations with one of its few allies and sources of life-giving aid, and a ploy to obtain more help.
“The more trouble they can stir up between now and another meeting... the more likely the Chinese are to slip in something to get them to show up,” said Cossa. “They feel they have leverage with the Chinese because the Chinese want this to succeed.”
Beijing’s Communist rulers want success, not just to avoid the nightmare of the collapse of a Communist neighbor on its border, but to prevent a flood of refugees and build a reputation as a responsible member of the international community.
“You have a government divided on its North Korea policy, that wishes the problem would go away, that wishes other countries would take the lead — and it isn’t the United States,” said Eberstadt, summing up sentiments prevalent in Washington.
