The people of the disputed territory of Kashmir desperately want peace after years of violence and killing. After five and a half decades of hostility, two wars and several near wars over the issue, both India and Pakistan desperately need it. The world needs it too; the prospect of another war involving what are now two nuclear powers can only be regarded with horror.
For that reason, India’s surprise decision to talk to the principal Kashmiri separatist alliance — the All Parties Hurriyat Conference — is extremely welcome even though Delhi has said that Kashmiri independence is off the agenda. Dialogue is the only way this issue is going to be resolved. Military muscle, no matter how superior that of India might be, is not going to stop the violence let alone the alienation that feeds it. It seems that Delhi has finally grasped that crucial fact.
The move is all the more welcome because India is aiming for more than peace within Kashmir. It is looking afresh at regional peace and stability. Immediately after the offer of talks came the announcement of measures to improve ties with Pakistan. Nor is it any coincidence that India has also been holding talks with China to settle the dispute over the small Chinese-administered part of Kashmir which resulted to a short war between the two countries in 1962.
But there is no point starting to celebrate. The violence is not going to end tomorrow no matter what happens in the talks — assuming they take place at all. It took years to achieve peace of a sort in Northern Ireland after the parties there started to talk, and matters are still not settled. Talking to the main Kashmiri separatist movement is not going to stop the militants because they are not part of it. Nor do they jump to Pakistan’s orders. The Pakistani authorities can do a great deal to limit their actions but they are not in control of them. The militants have their own agenda.
At the moment, there is no guarantee that anyone on the Kashmiri side will turn up to talks. The separatists are bitterly divided. There are moderates, hard-liners and extremists. The All Parties Hurriyat Conference itself split last month between those supporting dialogue with Delhi and pro-Pakistan hard-liners demanding that Delhi invite Islamabad to join in. Delhi’s invitation is to the moderates alone. They are bound to be accused of selling out and face the very real danger of assassination. They may decide it is safer not to talk if others are not invited.
But even if talks proceed, how far is India willing to go? Is it prepared to allow Kashmir to decide its own future, albeit in 20, 30, 50 years’ time? There is no evidence of that. The tragedy is that while that remains off-limits, the terrorists are not going to go away.
