Ariel Sharon’s recipe for dealing with the Palestinians is simple: If force does not work, use more force. Thus, when Sharon and his Palestinian counterpart Ahmed Qorei meet, possibly within a week’s time, the new premier had best be on his toes. Sharon is signaling conciliation. He has authorized his army to relax the occupation in certain areas of the West Bank. He also says he is ready to resume negotiations with the new Palestinian prime minister.
But this could be a diversion. While the army was easing the blockades on Bethlehem last weekend, it also killed some 13 Palestinians in Gaza and Jenin, including a 10-year-old boy, and razed another 15 Palestinian homes in Rafah. Finally, last week Israel unveiled plans to extend the West Bank barrier east of the mammoth settlement of Maale Adumim that lies between occupied East Jerusalem and Jericho, effectively cutting off the northern West Bank from the southern.
Nor can much greater hope be put in any negotiations, if and when they resume. Publicly Sharon and his Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz say they are ready to grant a grace period, chastened as the Israeli government is by the growing domestic and international perception that it was responsible for the fall of the first Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas. They have also intimated that they are willing to discuss another Palestinian cease-fire to help the PA “fight terror.”
But this, too, could be a ruse. Sharon and Mofaz are aware that Qorei’s condition for a truce is that it is mutual, with guarantees that Israel refrains from incursions into Palestinian areas, assassination of Palestinian activists and demolition of Palestinian homes. It is inconceivable that this Israeli government would grant such assurances, let alone freeze settlement construction or reverse the route of the barrier. Settlements and the West Bank barrier have now become the two most mortal threats to any meaningful future Palestinian state, which is why Israel is intent on retaining both.
While Israel continues to deceive and threaten the Palestinians even while stating the conditions under which it would accept them as a partner, the Palestinians, meanwhile, should not expect any greater US pressure on Sharon this time around. Washington will not exert any pressure on Sharon until the PA starts to act decisively against Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
In American eyes, the reward — that is, Israeli concessions —- comes after the crackdown, not before or in parallel. The result is that either a Palestinian cease-fire will not be agreed upon between the factions, or if agreed, that it will last no longer than the previous one. And Sharon will be able to once again cast the collapse as due to Palestinian rejection or violence rather than Israeli bad faith.
