Russians are voting today to choose a new Parliament. There is little doubt that the United Russia party, which backs President Putin, will win; there is thus no great interest among the voters. The big election will come next year when Vladimir Putin puts himself forward for a second term.
Western media has made much of the lack of interest among the voters, suggesting it demonstrates a drop in enthusiasm among Russians for the democratic process. But that is to misunderstand the Russians, who have been conditioned by history to expect strong leadership. They are not interested in change for change’s sake. They want rulers who get on with the job.
The high hopes of economic change have been dashed but Russians are used to disappointment. This is not yet a consumerist country demanding instant satisfaction.
Thus the low level of interest in the parliamentary elections could be taken as a token of approval at the general way in which their country is being run. It is insulting to the intelligence of the Russians to assume that they are apathetic. As the spontaneous uprising in reaction to the 1991 attempted overthrow of Gorbachev demonstrated, the Russians are not indifferent to their fate. Had they grounds enough to protest, the United Russian party could not be so confident of victory today.
Judging by today’s climate, Putin seems certain of another term in the Kremlin when the time comes. The increasingly authoritarian tone of his administration and his crackdown on big business political opponents worry outsiders far more than Russians. The Chechen war is unpopular, but terrorist outrages such as Friday’s attack in southern Russian which killed 42 people, mostly youngsters, can only increase Russian anger and stiffen their resolve to fight on.
Putin’s secret has been that he has played to the intense pride felt by his fellow-Russians. Even when dealing with humiliating disasters like the loss of the submarine Kursk, their president has behaved with dignity and resolve, in stark contrast to his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin. By a combination of charm and astuteness, Putin has won back much of Russia’s international standing. Russians are proud of the position the Kremlin took over the Iraqi invasion and the way in which Putin has redressed some of the imbalance that existed in Russia’s relationship with the United States.
The only credible opposition at the moment comes from the Communists. But they have been less successful than some of their counterparts in the former Eastern bloc at transforming themselves into convincing participants in a multiparty democracy.
Most power rests in the Kremlin, while the Parliament has largely been a talking shop. Putin’s power will gain little if United Russia becomes the dominant party today.
