President Musharraf’s surprise announcement that Pakistan will no longer insist on a referendum in Kashmir as a precondition for any settlement with India is a brave move.
This may be just the concession to capitalize on the recent welcome thaw in relations between Pakistan and India. But it is not without risk. In abandoning the demand for a plebiscite in the disputed territory, Islamabad is effectively undermining UN resolutions dating from 1948 which have always insisted that the people of Jammu and Kashmir should decide their future for themselves — whether as an independent country or as part of Pakistan or India.
In 1948, though there were vocal elements in predominantly Muslim Jammu and Kashmir who wanted a union with fellow Muslim Pakistan, there was also a reasonable chance that the voters might have gone for independence. New Delhi was not prepared to take that risk. When India subsequently attempted to occupy the territory, it led to war with Pakistan — with the result that Jammu and Kashmir became partitioned.
This conflict is now over 50 years old and cries out for a negotiated settlement. The problem is that India has never been prepared to accept outside mediation. Direct negotiations between Islamabad and New Delhi have continued on and off, while hopes of a settlement have risen and fallen. It has probably suited successive Indian administrations that their Pakistani counterparts have always made the issue of a plebiscite fundamental to any agreement.
By abandoning this position, President Musharraf has placed the ball very firmly in the Indian court. Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee will be hard pressed not to acknowledge the very real concession that is being offered. The extent of Musharraf’s boldness can be measured by the anger with which his proposal is already being greeted by elements in both Pakistan and Jammu and Kashmir.
The Indians must now resist the temptation to draw out progress toward any real talks in the hope that popular protest will undermine the Pakistani president’s initiative. Those in New Delhi who are content with the status quo and fear and resist any change must take their heads out of the sand. Pakistan has offered India an olive branch rich with fruit. If India does not take it, it will not only be condemning the luckless people of Jammu and Kashmir to yet more years of conflict and division, but it will be undermining India’s own growing international position.
If New Delhi is to punch its weight on the international stage and use its growing economic power to demand its place at the high table of world affairs — even perhaps a permanent seat on the UN Security Council — it will have to show that it is capable of behaving in a statesman-like manner. What better place to start than this long-festering issue in its own backyard.
