BEIJING, 26 February 2004 — China’s role in talks this week on North Korea’s nuclear program is somewhat like that of an acrobat cycling with one person standing on each shoulder. Except that the two passengers may shift their positions or even argue during the performance. “There is no trust between the United States and North Korea, and the two sides may fail in the talks at any time,” Li Dunqiu, an expert on Korean affairs at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, told Deutsche Presse-Agentur DPA.
“Solving the problem is mainly decided by the United States and North Korea, and China plays a very important role in avoiding any intensification (of conflict),” Li said.
There are three other players, of course: South Korea, Japan and Russia. They are also there mainly to support the two main protagonists and assist China’s diplomatic efforts.
One major difficulty facing diplomats is that North Korea displays a mixture of “soft and hard” policies, reflecting a similar approach by the United States, said Qi Baoliang of the Beijing-based Institute of Contemporary International Relations.
“Our expectations should not be too high,” Qi warned in an interview broadcast by state television as the six-party talks began yesterday.
But North Korea has shown a change in attitude from its earlier outright hostility toward the United States, he said. “This change in attitude has included a change in foreign policy,” Qi said, citing as an example Pyongyang’s willingness to propose its own solution to the standoff over its nuclear program.
Libya’s public abandonment of its nuclear program and Iran’s cooperation with international nuclear inspectors have also put “great pressure” on North Korea. “But in my opinion, the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) is not likely to give up that easily,” Qi said.
The main hope at this week’s talks is that the six parties will agree on a framework for ending North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, he said. “It is unrealistic for the DPRK to give up its nuclear weapons programs all at once.”
Most analysts agree with Qi, and Wang Yi, head of the Chinese delegation in the talks, also suggested a six-party agreement on a mechanism or framework for future talks is the likely best outcome. “At this round, the parties will discuss how to identify the specific objectives in resolving the nuclear issue and study ways to continue the process of the talks,” Wang said in his speech at the opening of talks yesterday.
Wang Yi and other Chinese diplomats made “tremendous efforts” in arranging the second round of talks with North Korean, US, South Korean, Japanese and Russian officials, said Wang Lunan of the International Studies University in the southwestern province of Sichuan.
Dozens of diplomatic exchanges since the first talks were held in Beijing last August have “softened the hard-line stances” of North Korea and the United States, the official Xinhua news agency quoted Wang Lunan as saying.
