MOSCOW, 15 March 2004 — Russia’s Vladimir Putin will ease back behind his Kremlin desk next Monday for four more years in office, armed with czar-like powers.

How will he use them?

Intrigue and ruthless political maneuvering have put the 51-year-old former KGB spy in an unrivalled position to propel his sprawling, chaotic country of 145 million people forward.

He will win Sunday’s presidential poll by a landslide after relentless state television coverage that has fed the average Russian’s gut-instinct to back the man at the top.

The Kremlin leader has no effective political opposition.

He has tamed rebellious regional leaders. The pro-Putin party, United Russia, holds more than two thirds of the seats in Parliament. He has the newly appointed government in his pocket.

The “oligarch” class of wealthy entrepreneurs, once an alternative source of power, are cowed. Oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, richest fat cat of all, sits in jail on tax evasion charges.

Critics say Putin’s autocratic style, the influence of state security officials on policy and Kremlin pressure on the media doom democratic development, 12 years after Communist rule ended.

Few Russian voters share this concern, though many display indifference to the outcome on Sunday. Soviet-style cynicism is rife toward a political process many say will change nothing.

Millions will turn out to vote for Putin — atypical and deadpan with little natural charisma. Ask a Russian why, he will probably reply: “He has brought stability and prosperity.”

After the drink-fuelled zigzags of the Boris Yeltsin years, Putin’s quiet insistence on order certainly strikes a chord.

His understated approach and a knack of ensuring others are in the firing line have helped him weather his few crises, like the sinking of the Kursk nuclear submarine in August 2000. The seizure of theater-goers in Moscow by Chechen rebels in October 2002 that ended with big loss of life never dented his standing. The worse the Chechen outrage, the higher his rating.

Investors lauded this week’s Cabinet shake-up and expect Putin to keep slashing red tape and encouraging small business.

He wants to double the size of the economy in a decade and help the one-third of Russians in poverty, recognition that a burgeoning middle class is offset by the poor getting poorer.

His popularity — with ratings of at least 70 percent — would ensure victory anyway in a fair election. So why resort to “overkill” tactics to assure a runaway victory over no-hopers?

Analysts say this reflects the instincts of a KGB-trained bureaucrat surrounded by advisers of similar backgrounds. “On one hand Putin’s second term will mean a degree of stability, but there will be limitations on basic freedoms, freedom of expression, and liberty generally in the country,” said Yevgeny Volk, an analyst at the Heritage Foundation think tank.

This could provoke friction with more squeamish Western governments, like Washington, which voice concern over media freedom. But he is assured of a good reception — for now.

“There is some reassessment going on of Putin. But Western governments can do little about someone who enjoys huge voter support,” said one Western diplomat.

With 60 percent of export revenue from energy sales, only a fall in oil prices can prick Putin’s bubble. But analysts discount a sharp drop in world prices, probably into next year.

“If there is a fall it will create a serious situation because there has been no real modernization of industry, which is largely of a Soviet type and military-oriented,” said Volk. He may face trouble from a surge in nationalism — filling the void left by the rout of the Communist opposition. One Cabinet minister has blamed this for rising racism in society.

Other challenges include overhauling the system bringing power, water and heat into apartment blocks housing millions. He lobbed this hot potato at his new prime minister, Mikhail Fradkov.

Analysts believe Putin will keep Fradkov, no innovator, until he finds a replacement who may be groomed to succeed him.

Putin will be 55 in 2008 — young enough to assume a plum job in industry, banking or representing Russia at a high level. Most people believe he will not try to stay on for a third term.