MANILA, 1 April 2004 — Few people doubt that Abu Sayyaf guerrillas, notorious for kidnapping and beheading tourists, would have qualms about blowing up shops and trains in the Philippine capital.

What was more surprising about the government’s announcement on Tuesday that it had foiled an Abu Sayyaf plan to launch a major terror attack was that the guerrillas have the capability or will to do so.

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo said her security forces had uncovered an Abu Sayyaf cell in Manila, arresting four men and seizing nearly 40 kg (80lb) of explosives intended to be used in “Madrid-level” attacks. Police told Reuters yesterday that two more cell members had been caught.

The conventional wisdom in recent years has been that the Abu Sayyaf is a spent force after a US-backed military campaign following the Sept. 11 attacks to crush its presence in the Philippines’ lawless southern islands.

Even before that, analysts say ties the group had forged with Osama Bin Laden’s Al-Qaeda in the early 1990s had largely been cut as it split into factions more interested in kidnap for ransom than fighting for an Islamic state.

“It would be difficult because they are on the run but it’s not to be ruled out entirely,” said Andrew Tan, a terrorism expert at Singapore’s Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies.

“Even though it has been portrayed as a criminal gang, it has always given at least lip service to the Islamist cause. There would be officials within the older ranks who would remember there is a cause they are supposed to be fighting for.” Officials have not yet released specific evidence to back up the accusation of a planned attack on the scale of last month’s Madrid trains bombings that killed nearly 200 people.

But they have named the four as known Abu Sayyaf militants, including the cousin of the group’s leader, Khaddafy Janjalani, whom they suspect of beheading US citizen Guillermo Sobero after he was kidnapped with others from a beach resort in 2001.

Others were implicated in the kidnapping of 21 tourists and workers from a Malaysian dive resort in 2000, and police said one had confessed to planting a bomb in a ferry near Manila last month before it sank, killing more than 100 people.

It was during the kidnappings that the Abu Sayyaf earned its mercenary reputation, demanding millions of dollars in ransom, reportedly raping female hostages, and abducting journalists who came to cover the story in remote Basilan and Jolo islands.

With national elections only five weeks away, analysts said Arroyo could be playing up the threat to boost her image as a tough crime fighter. In December, she was quick to take credit for the capture of Ghalib Andang, known as Commander Robot, a leader of one Abu Sayyaf faction suspected of masterminding the 2000 kidnapping.

But David Wright-Neville, security expert at Australia’s Monash University, said the splintering of the Abu Sayyaf may have led some members into alliances with other Islamic militants, such as the Southeast Asian Jemaah Islamiah network.

“The fact that it is taking its fight out of the southern Philippines and into Manila is also an ominous sign because it suggests they are strengthening their logistical capabilities,” he told Reuters.