LONDON, 15 July 2004 — The soaring political temperatures in Leicester South and Birmingham Hodge Hill are helping warm the dull summer. Labour won both constituencies with convincing majorities at the last general election, but Iraq has helped to alter the landscape dramatically ahead of today’s by-elections.

Leicester South has a 30 percent ethnic minority community, with Muslims forming a majority of 19 percent. Crucially, the Muslims are evenly spread throughout this wide constituency which runs across some of the most deprived wards such as St Matthews — with an unemployment rate running into double figures — and the most affluent area, Stoneygate, where the average house price is more than £500,000. Thus the “Muslim vote”, if it exists, could be the kingmaker.

Like Muslims elsewhere in the country, Leicester’s have traditionally voted Labour en masse, ensuring the late Jim Marshall a majority of more than 13,000 in the last general election.

But the Iraq war, the Anti-Terrorism Act 2001 and the government’s failure to protect Muslims under race discrimination laws, have led to a situation where most Muslims are preparing to abandon Labour. For whom? That is the big question in the run-up to today.

Michael Howard and Charles Kennedy have already made a dozen visits between them to Leicester, and prominent members of all the parties are contacting organizations and individuals believed to have influence in the constituency. The Lib Dems overturned the Labour majority in the local council elections of 2003 with the direct help of dissatisfied Muslim voters. The Conservatives, who came second in the general election, trailed in a poor third place at the local level, but recovered ground in the June European elections.

Thanks to the evolving anti-terrorism laws, Muslims are no longer politically guided by their mosques. The mere mention of politics in mosques carries the risk for worshippers of being accused of blindly following “subversive” imams.

The average voter has turned to grass roots organizations and individuals with a track record of civic commitment over mainstream politicians. A public debate last Thursday drew hundreds of people to a vigorous, but informative discussion. Newsletters circulating in the Muslim community have outlined the detailed responses of the candidates on policy questions. Initiatives like this have raised Muslim political savvy to a more sophisticated level.

Of the eight mosques in the Leicester South area, only two committees are known to be party-aligned, one with Labour and the other Lib Dem.

But even these mosques have little or no significant sway over the people, as the pulpit is never used to promote a political party — as Kennedy found out on one recent trip, when he had to be content with a tour of an empty mosque before Friday prayers.

Hence, the Muslim bloc vote has been in hibernation, waiting to be revived either by a Muslim candidate or another unifying common denominator. The mainstream political parties have clung to the jaded campaigning technique of invitations to, and photo opportunities with, “community leaders”. But most Muslims have learned the hard way the hollow value of political promises, particularly on such key local issues as faith schools.

So this by-election will be a four-way affair. The Liberal Democrats are leading Labour in the polls, and if they maintain that lead, city councillor Parmjit Singh Gill, will become their first ethnic minority MP. With UKIP out of the race (the party gained 19 percent of the votes in Leicester at the European election, 0.5 percent above the Conservatives) the Conservatives, at least, can breathe a sigh of relief.

But the fourth candidate Yvonne Ridley, the journalist turned anti-war campaigner, standing for the Respect — The Unity Coalition, is likely to take away a significant number of votes from both the Lib Dems and Labour.

Indeed, if the “Muslim vote” comes out in strength, with Iraq as the unifying issue, it may ironically undermine the objective of many, which is to vote Labour out. Disillusioned Labour voters may turn to Respect rather than the Lib Dems, thus allowing Labour to sneak a victory by a whisker.

Thus the Muslims may still play the pivotal role, albeit indirectly. An outcome that is unlikely, but cannot be completely excluded, particularly in the event of a low turnout, is that Leicester South may deliver a shock winner in the form of Yvonne Ridley.

With politicians in their droves beating a path to Leicester, Blair’s personal absence from the fray sticks out like a political sore thumb. But it is a relief to his own local party, which considers him a liability.

Leicester South offers an example of a healthy democracy at work. In this case, all the candidates are under the intense scrutiny of the voters, whom they know could cause a political earthquake. Which would be ironic, in the constituency of the late Jim Marshall, who was arguably the quietest man in British politics.

- (The writer is the leader of a Leicester-based Muslim rights organization.)