COLOMBO, 3 August 2004 — It’s been 16 months since peace talks between Sri Lanka’s government and Tamil Tiger rebels broke down, and although a cease-fire is holding, analysts are saying it’s time to restart negotiations — or it may never happen.

The most serious threat to the island’s February 2002 cease-fire and the bid to end 21 years of civil war has been violence related to a split within the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), which the rebels view as a threat to their supremacy within the minority Tamil community.

And although this is the longest spell of peace on the Indian Ocean island since 1983, few have forgotten that previous cease-fires have ended with little provocation and that the war has resumed with even more ferocity.

In the current impasse, the Tigers are accusing the government of helping the breakaway faction led by a rebel commander known as Karuna, who was one of the seniormost strategists in the movement before the unexpected split in March.

Tamils live mostly in Sri Lanka’s north and east, and Karuna was the commander of the Tigers in the Eastern Province.

The Tigers say the government’s involvement with Karuna shows President Chandrika Kumaratunga is not sincere about making peace. In the meantime, they are dealing with the breakaway group with trademark ruthlessness.

Last month, eight men, almost all of them owing allegiance to Karuna, were drugged and shot as they slept in a Colombo house and there is little doubt the Tigers were responsible.

Karuna himself is on the run and, by all accounts, is a hunted man.

“From the LTTE’s point of view, they are concentrating on clearing the deck in the eastern province and are in no haste to resume negotiations,” said Kethesh Loganathan, of the independent Center for Policy Alternatives.

Norwegian mediator Vidar Helgesen said after meetings with both the Tigers and the government last week that no progress was made toward renewed talks to end the war over a separate state for minority Tamils.

Meanwhile, the Tigers have been ratcheting up rhetoric against the government.

“Her (Kumaratunga’s) deeds and words are leading Sri Lanka to renewed hostility and war,” the pro-rebel Tamilnet Web site quoted C. Ilamparithi, a Tiger political wing official, as saying.

“She is also involved in creating divisions within the Tamil community by using the renegade Karuna,” he said.

Analysts say despite the worrying signs, neither side really wants a return to the war that killed 64,000 and both are realizing it may be crunch time when it comes to making peace.

“It requires all sections to take a deep breath,” said Loganathan.

“There is a need on the part of the LTTE to recognize the need of pluralism. And also parts of the military need to cease any adventurism,” he said.

But the fear is that the Tigers’ stepped up attacks on Karuna’s supporters — which have also included a suicide bomb blast in Colombo — could cause a breakdown in the truce neither side intends.

The government showed signs last week during Helgesen’s visit it would be willing to compromise on the agenda for talks and base them on the Tigers’ proposals for interim self-rule, meeting a longstanding rebel demand.

But that was opposed by the People’s Liberation Front (JVP) wing of the coalition, which claims to represent the Sinhalese majority and is against talks based on any self-rule proposal.

Government officials played down the internal differences.