Since the start of the invasion of Iraq — according to reports — there have been many soldiers and fighters on Iraqi territory. The troops from the allied coalition make up the majority but there are others, in addition to the occupiers, who are battling on behalf of the Iraqis. These groups or militias profess various nationalistic or leftist ideologies. And as both perceived and real threats grow in the region, with Iraq spiraling into chaos and a security nightmare, there is every possibility that peace in the region is likely to come at a great price. But the question is who will pay that price?
The number of coalition troops sent to Iraq was gigantic, largely because they were there not only to bring about changes in Iraq but also bring reform all over the region. The American-led coalition had Saudi Arabia, its neighbors in the Gulf, Syria, Iran, Jordan and Egypt in their sights as countries that need reform.
While the Americans and their allies are in the region for their own purposes, reports have emerged that Tunisians, Moroccans, Yemenis, Lebanese, Palestinians, Sudanese and some Gulf citizens are active in post-Saddam Iraq. And most of them are currently involved in the chaos that has followed the complete collapse of security in Iraq.
The postwar phase, after the US-led invasion, has reached a critical point and the endgame — whether it is a triumph or defeat of Iraqi power — is drawing near. In either scenario, we can see real peril. The identity of the extremist army in Iraq is unclear. We cannot really say that it is only Al-Qaeda. Under that wing there are several different extremist organizations actively fomenting trouble and discord. These organizations normally work separately on different continents, but for the first time, they have all come together now in one place. What has enabled them to join forces in Iraq is that their views and visions are one: They view the American-led coalition or the American-supported Iraqi government as an enemy. They consider all systems imposed by America and its allies as infidel ones that are deviant and must be confronted and ended. There is no room for those who think they can maintain a neutral stand for the extreme ideologies of these groups allow no challenge to their thoughts and ideas.
Saudi Arabia purposely strove to avoid any involvement in Afghanistan and it did the same thing by stepping aside from the Iraq war. Despite this, however, Saudi Arabia has had to face extremists. They had to confront misguided Saudis and Arabs who took the fight to the Saudi government by carrying out terrorist operations in many parts of the Kingdom. This is the same group that threatens Jordan today and could target Syria tomorrow and probably Iran at some stage in the future.
On the political front, these countries are faced with two threats. One is from the Americans and the other from the armed extremists.
We have to watch Iraq’s current battle closely because it represents a preview of the near future we speak of. For Iraq has become the ground where these battles will be won or lost. Whatever Al-Qaeda lost in number and power in Afghanistan has now been successfully recouped in Iraq, a country more emotionally and geographically connected with the rest of the region than Afghanistan. Iran is blamed more than others for considering the Sunni extremist groups, represented in Al-Qaeda, a good weapon to face the countries in the region with a majority Sunni population. And yet Iran itself also faces the threat of danger posed by extremist groups that see it as an infidel country. On the other hand, the fears of Iran and others are justified when they theorize that the Americans will use Iraq as a model against them in the future.
Now a choice must be made between theory and reality. The reality is that currently in Iraq there is a growing army of armed extremists undergoing training like that of the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan before they fought the Soviets. This is a real and imminent threat.
