YOKOSUKA, Japan, 17 August 2004 — There is no doubt that the delicate balance in Asia is becoming increasingly threatened by the struggle between China and Taiwan. The question is just what is the US policy and can Taiwan depend upon the United States to help defend its borders should the need occur.

Taiwan is one of the many names given to this small island off the coast of China over its long and varied history. The Dutch named it Formosa and the first residents; the Malayans called it “Pekan” meaning resting place. The people are a combination of Malayans and Chinese immigrants. First, the Hakkas, or untouchables from China and later the Hoklos who followed across the Strait of Taiwan from China. In 611 AD the Chinese explorer Shu Kuan visited the island. It was not until 1683 AD that China incorporated Taiwan into its own territory. For over one thousand years Taiwan was not, in essence, Chinese.

After the Japanese occupation at the end of World War II, China was given temporary jurisdiction over Taiwan. The Cold War pitted Taiwan as an American ally against Communist China. When the United Nations recognized “one China” Taiwan was reduced to a satellite of China. The position of the United States in reference to this small island is as confusing as its history. Having backed the inept and corrupt regime of Chiang Kai-shek for years, the US then took the position of supporting Taiwan but trying not to anger China. The current position is somewhat like the ancient Chinese game of “Go” where the competitors, in this case the US and China, vie for territory while constantly testing each other’s reactions to their moves.

When President Bush took office in 2000, he said that he would pursue a more pro-Taiwan policy than his predecessor, Clinton. He said that he would do “whatever it took to protect Taiwan against China”. In December 2003, he said that he opposed any unilateral decision by either China or Taiwan to change the status quo of a “one-China” policy with two separate economic and political systems. Yet, he also said that if China poses a threat to Taiwan “We’re going to be there”.

John Kerry in his recent positioning has said that he believes in the “one-China” policy but will, if elected, defend the interests of the people of Taiwan. The Chinese, on the other hand, have been very consistent in their position in reference to Taiwan. To them it is a province of China and they believe that their national unity and stability are critical in order to survive as a nation. While they seek to interact with the US primarily in terms of trade and technology, according to the National Defense Report to Congress, Beijing believes that the US poses a significant long-term challenge to its interests.

Because of this China has embarked upon a modernization program of its military for use against potential targets such as Taiwan. They are developing advanced information technology and long-range precision strike capabilities. They have greatly expanded their arsenal of increasingly accurate and lethal ballistic missiles and long-range strike aircraft. What they are currently missing in military weaponry and technology they hope to procure from Russia and other states of the former Soviet Union.

China’s conventional ground forces number 2.5 million active duty and another 1.2 million in reserve components. The parade at the end of July through the streets of Hong Kong of Chinese troops sent the message that theirs is a military force of great size and ability.

The re-election of Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, a well-known advocate of a democratic Taiwan, has increased the flame in this already red zone. China also wants the advantage of the economic progress that Taiwan has achieved by changing from a handicraft, mechanical and automated industrial base into the digital age. Taiwan is now a leading player in the electronics industry and is going where China wants to be.

As for the US, it is now a question of not whether their military will defend Taiwan against China but are they capable of doing it.

With their forces stretched to the limit in Iraq and Afghanistan, do the Americans have the means to defend Taiwan? Americans conducted a crisis-simulation drill, several weeks ago, trying to answer just that question. The exercise was held seeking to understand the full range of policy options and consequences available regarding Taiwan.

Around the same time, China conducted an amphibious landing exercise on Dongshan Island. No one outside of the military and the State Department personnel know the outcome of the US exercise but we do know its name. It was called Dragon’s Thunder. Whoever selected that name knows the danger of China and Taiwan, a danger that should not be underestimated and may not be the sole responsibility of the United States to solve.

— Adrienne McPhail is a free-lance journalist based in Yokosuka, Japan. http://www.homepages.cybernet.it/worthington-agency/