The conflicting reports coming from Najaf in these past days should make one wary of saying with any certainty what the position in that embattled city at any given moment is. There have been reports of Moqtada Sadr breathing defiance and promising martyrdom, of his agreeing to disarm his Mehdi Army and of his rejection of the Iraqi government’s ultimatums to lay down weapons. The latest news is that his forces have handed over the keys to the holy Imam Ali Mosque to the representatives of Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani. If the handover is confirmed, the holiest shrine in the city would be under the control of Iraq’s top Shiite authority, after more than two weeks of battles.
The confusion that surrounded the control of the mosque last night well represents the incoherence that has blighted much of the latest upsurge in violence. The bloodshed, disruption and destruction of the last few days have all been entirely unnecessary. There was never any chance that the Mehdi Army, whose heaviest weaponry appears to have been mortars and grenade launchers, was going to challenge the government with the heavily armored, high-technology backing of the US military.
Sadr claimed to be prepared to give his life for his cause. His spokesmen away from Najaf characterized his policy as making a last stand, dramatic and defiant. This they said was the all-important showdown. But none of this ever made any sense. If Sadr really believes his cause is to represent the poorest among Iraq’s Shiite community, becoming a martyr is going to do people no good at all. If however his cause has been his own political advancement, his death would be utterly pointless.
What Sadr clearly hoped was that by holing up in a highly revered shrine, he would be besieged by a ring of US steel and could then appeal to the rest of Iraq to come to his aid. To an extent this happened with supporters including reportedly some Sunni Muslims traveling to Najaf to declare their solidarity. But these demonstrations never became the tidal wave for which Sadr clearly hoped. Elsewhere in the country, his supporters took action. The British military were caught by surprise in Basra where his followers seized a key oil administration office and torched it and surrounding facilities.
Without the popular countrywide uprising he wanted, Sadr’s position began to look as helpless. It seems significant that among the population of Najaf who had heeded US warnings to move away from the contested area, anger has been directed as much against Sadr and his people as against the Americans. The Iraqi government will be wise however to moderate its characterization of Sadr as a criminal. True though this may be in many respects, he does represent a significant political minority. If he has indeed been forced to back down in Najaf, now is the time to once more offer him a place at the negotiating table.
Enemy can be downed by might. But to turn him into an ally, you need statesmanship.
It is time for statesmanship in Iraq now.
