For the second consecutive week, the US presidential campaign polls proved contradictory. While the large 12 to 14 point Bush leads of early September have evaporated, some pollsters are still finding the president with a sizable lead — perhaps as large as 10 percent — over Democratic challenger John Kerry. However, other polls tell a different tale, one in which Kerry is nipping at Bush’s heels, if not already pulled even. Averaging all the data taken in 10 recently released nationwide polls, Bush holds a narrow 3.8 percent lead over Kerry. This margin represents a very slight gain for Kerry over the previous week’s figure.
Last week, pundits were baffled by public opinion surveys, unable to establish who had momentum. No one could explain the discrepancy between polls taken with similar sample sizes over the same time periods. The USA Today/Gallup Poll, which canvassed likely voters from Sept. 13-15, found President Bush on top of Sen. Kerry by a comfortable 55 percent-42 percent margin. If this were accurate and would hold up until Election Day it would result in the largest landslide since 1984, when Ronald Reagan cruised to an easy victory over Walter Mondale in an election never in doubt. But not all the polls were as generous to Bush. In fact, five polls released at the same time had the race either tied or within a single point. The Harris Poll even had Kerry leading the incumbent 48 percent-47 percent.
Today, despite continued differences in poll results, the state of the campaign can be more firmly established. This week’s data tells four things about the current complexion of the race: 1) although the advantage is small — within the margin of error by most conventional standards — Bush has the edge; 2) while much of Bush’s post-convention bounce has faded, it was large enough for him to claim frontrunner status; 3) Kerry is gradually closing the gap, and could jump ahead if events work against Bush or he scores a tactical win in the upcoming debates; and, 4) the American electorate is far more volatile this year than previously believed.
Bush leaped ahead at the end of August, capturing the momentum due to Kerry’s stumbles and his own well-choreographed performance at the Republican National Convention in New York. Kerry’s August swoon was attributable to his delay in rebutting advertisements from a rogue pro-Bush veterans groups that questioned his record of service in Vietnam. These attacks and Kerry’s poor response to them led many Americans to question his leadership skills. Adding more weight to the perception of Kerry as a weak leader, Bush’s campaign capitalized on the Massachusetts senator’s position on Iraq. Kerry’s indigestible answers to Iraq-related questions made him appear indecisive. Finally, the hyperpatriotic Republican Convention reminded voters of the Sept. 11 attacks — Bush’s shining moment — and the danger of changing horses in the middle of a national crisis.
Lastly, and perhaps more importantly in the modern media era, in the last month Bush has performed well on the stump. At his best, Bush is far from convincing on substantive policy issues. But he is approachable, and Americans ultimately like Bush personally. Kerry, on the other hand, is not a personable candidate. He epitomizes the East Coast patrician-elitist. Such candidates traditionally do not play well outside their native region, particularly in the Midwest, where they even tend to dampen the enthusiasm of party stalwarts. This explains Kerry’s lagging poll numbers in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and West Virginia, all traditional Democratic strongholds where today Bush is even or ahead.
Kerry reorganized his campaign in early September, adding many veteran operatives from Clinton era. Since then, the Democrat has campaigned with renewed vigor. His attacks and positions — especially on Iraq — are sharper and crisper than ever before. The Kerry makeover has given Democrats reason to be optimistic. Pessimists, however, maintain that Kerry’s recent moves are far too late in the game to negate the impression held by most voters that he is indecisive and opportunistic, has unoriginal ideas, and lacks the requisite leadership skills to be president.
As many political analysts have noted before, ultimately a presidential election is a referendum on the incumbent. Bush’s handlers are gifted at the art of spin, and obviously skilled at the black art of negative campaigning. Throughout August and early September, that enabled the president to make the race about Kerry. To his credit, Bush gained a leg up by painting an unflattering picture of the Massachusetts senator, and has since sustained his lead by capitalizing on voter anxiety and apathy toward Kerry.
In the end, Bush will have to defend his own record on the economy and Iraq. Even with August’s slightly better jobs report, the nation’s economic health is not necessarily an asset for Bush. While domestic issues in general are uncharacteristically taking a backseat to foreign policy and national security this year, Bush’s record on bread and butter issues such as health care and education will cost him votes.
Even on foreign policy and national security, Bush faces obstacles, most of which are out of his control at this point. Iraq is an albatross on Bush’s neck. Bush’s idealistic and optimistic words about Iraq and its future do not match reality, a fact increasingly recognized by the American media and public alike. The more chaotic and bloody Iraq, the worse for Bush. This past week, a visit by Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi and a speech to the United Nations General Assembly failed to convince a skeptical America that Iraq is on the right track. Allawi was seen as a political prop by Bush’s foes, while Bush’s highly anticipated address to the UN was poorly received.
Opinion polls in no way represents an endorsement of Bush’s performance in office. Surveys have consistently shown that a majority of Americans disapprove of Bush’s handling of the presidency. At least half of the electorate (50 percent accordingly to this week’s Zogby Poll) does not believe Bush deserves re-election. Bush’s lead speaks volumes about Kerry’s weak standing with the voters. Time is running out for Kerry to convince the public — which is not enamored with Bush — that he deserves their vote. The sad truth is that a “generic candidate” would seemingly stand a better chance against Bush than Kerry. For this reason alone, the three head-to-head debates which start on Thursday are crucial to both candidates, but more so to Kerry.
— David Dumke is the CEO of the American Middle East Information Network and Principal of the MidAmr Group.
