LONDON, 30 September 2004 — To persuade Iran to forgo nuclear weapons is a laudable objective. The more nuclear matches are lying around, the more the chances of them being used either through political ineptitude in a crisis or more likely by accident or by being stolen or sold to the black market. But for the US, Britain and France to insist on it is, to say the least, hypocritical.
Iran is situated in the heart of one of the world’s most dangerous neighborhoods. Why shouldn’t it have a deterrent too, since these Western powers have argued so convincingly for decades that nuclear deterrence keeps the peace and themselves maintain nuclear armories long after the Cold War has ended? Double standards never got anyone anywhere.
And where is the source of the threat that makes Iran, a country that has never started a war in 200 years, feel so nervous that it must now take the nuclear road? If Saddam Hussein’s Iraq with its nuclear ambitions used to be one reason the other is certainly Israel, the country that hard-liners in the US are encouraging to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s nuclear industry before bombs are made.
The US refuses to acknowledge formally that Israel has nuclear weapons, even though top officials will tell you privately it has 200. Until this issue is openly acknowledged the US, Britain and France are probably wasting their time trying to persuade Iran to forgo nuclear weapons development. The sauce that is good for the goose is good for the gander.
The supposition is that Israel lives in an even more dangerous neighborhood than Iran. It is a beleaguered nation under constant threat of being eliminated by the combined muscle of its Arab opponents.
But this argument simply doesn’t stand up. There is no evidence that the Arab states have invested the financial and human resources necessary to fight a war that would be catastrophic for Israel. And the corollary of that is that there is not one bit of evidence that Israel’s nuclear weapons have deterred the Arabs from more limited wars or from the local Palestinian intifadas and suicide bombers. Nor have they influenced Arab attitudes toward making peace. In fact in both the 1973 Arab war against Israel and the I991 Gulf War Israel’s nuclear weapons clearly failed in their supposed deterrence effect. The Arabs knew, as the North Vietnamese knew during the Vietnam War, that their opponent would not dare to use its nuclear weapons.
Israel pro-bomb propaganda always raises the argument of the need to be nuclear armed in case one day an opportunistic Egypt and Syria, sensing Israel’s guard is down, revert to their old stance of total hostility and participate in a joint Arab attack against Israel. But, as Prof. Zeev Maoz has argued in Harvard University’s “International Security”, these countries keep to their treaty obligations. Egypt did not violate its peace treaty with Israel when the latter launched an unprovoked attack on Syria and Lebanon in 1982. Syria did not violate the May 1974 disengagement agreement with Israel even when its forces were under Israeli attack. Nor did Egypt, Jordan and Syria violate their treaty commitments when the Al-Aqsa intifada broke out in September 2000.
Since its 1979 peace treaty with Israel, Egypt has reduced its defense spending from 22 percent of its GNP in 1974 to a mere 2.75 percent in 2002. Syria’s has fallen from 26 percent to 6.7 percent. The combined defense expenditures of Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon amount to only 58 percent of Israel’s. Indeed the shoe is on the other foot — it is the Arabs who should be worried by Israel’s might.
Israel’s nuclear weapons are both politically unusable and militarily irrelevant, given the real threats it face. But they have been very effective in allowing countries as diverse as India, Pakistan, Libya, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, North Korea and now Iran to think they too have good reason to build a nuclear deterrent.
However, the very fact that four of these countries have now dismantled their nuclear weapons factories means that nuclear policies are not cast in stone. The way to go with Iran is to prove to its leadership that nuclear weapons will add nothing to its security, just as they don’t to Israel’s. This may require a grand bargain, which would mean the US offering a mutual nonaggression pact, ending its embargo over access to the International Monetary Fund and allowing American investment in Iran, particularly in its petroleum sector. It would mean too the US coming clean about Israel’s nuclear armory and engaging in a vigorous effort to persuade Israel to forgo its nuclear deterrent.
If the Western powers want to grasp the nettle of nuclear proliferation they need to take hold of the whole plant, not just one leaf.
