ISLAMABAD, 9 October 2004 — Parachuted into the presidential slot as a consequence of the December 2001 Bonn Agreement, Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai is now all set to become his country’s first ever elected president. He is the “assured winner.” In his almost three years as Afghanistan’s transitional president, Karzai, living under constant threat to his life, has successfully convinced large sections of the Afghan people looking for personal and economic security that he is more than just an American “puppet.” He also enjoys support of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries and is widely acknowledged as the man to lead Afghanistan’s reform and reconstruction in the coming years.
There are indeed many questions linked to the “fairness” of today’s presidential elections. These range from the use of state resources for Karzai’s campaigning, the forcible removal of Karzai’s key opponent Ismail Khan as governor of Herat and the double registration of voters from known pro-Karzai constituencies. According to the UN estimates, 9.5 million people were eligible to vote, but 10.5 million have registered, which indicates in some cases double voter registration. The voting exercise in Afghanistan’s far— flung areas to be conducted in scarcely equipped and mildly monitored 22,000 polling stations will also not be foolproof. In some cases transmitting results from polling stations, despite the election infrastructure that includes 5000 mobile phones, 114,000 local staff, 1150 Russian jeeps and 300 donkeys, could take up several days. This too could be reason to worry about the “fairness” of the election.
Afghans have witnessed anything but a genuine election campaign. Posters, not political rallies have dominated the campaign. In fact major security concerns made political rallies virtually non-existent. After being attacked during the Sept. 16 helicopter trip to Gardez, Karzai has opted for virtual “house arrest” inside his excessively US guarded presidential compound.
Other context-related shortcomings, which critics argue would prevent the election from being a fair one, include the fact that the success of a US installed man now supported by virtually the entire Western world is a foregone conclusion. The control by warlords of over 85 percent of Afghanistan is also seen as a major hurdle to the free exercise of peoples’ right to cast their vote. A strong possibility of major attacks from political forces opposed to Karzai and the Americans, whether warlords or some Taleban, does exist. Given Afghanistan’s almost three decades long political, social and security mayhem, elements like fraud, intimidation and violence will affect the presidential elections.
All these assertions are perhaps valid. Yet the continuation of Hamid Karzai as Afghanistan’s president will be equally valid. This validity flows from four facts peculiar to the current Afghan situation. First, Afghanistan, a war-ravaged country for almost a quarter of a century, cannot have genuine conditions for “operationalizing” democracy overnight. What Afghanistan needs is a state system built on sound institutions. Karzai, supported by the UN and the G-8 has been pursuing this objective just as the US-led international community has been keen to develop democratic institutions.
Secondly, for a state and society involved principally in the task of reconstruction, the presence of a strong leader is a fundamental requirement. Karzai’s track record amply demonstrates his capabilities as a strong leader. From the ravages of bitter civil strife, Karzai has emerged as a national figure on the Afghan political scene. His American backing is mainly responsible for keeping him in office, yet in his own right Karzai is recognized in Afghanistan as a political leader who has the potential to build bridges among the warring factions. Afghans have seen Karzai successfully divide the Northern Alliance and win over support from a sizable portion of it, as well as establish political links with certain sections of the former Taleban leadership. Karzai has gone on record to say that only about 100 Taleban involved in ruling Afghanistan can be categorized as criminals while others are innocent and should be re-integrated into the Afghan scene.
Thirdly, Afghanistan with no history of any institutionalized democratic form of government will have to evolve into a democratic political entity. In the initial formative period of any system it would be incorrect to hold the system up to rigorous standards. Afghanistan has still done well as a country with zero tradition of democracy. Starting from scratch, Afghanistan today has many million registered voters and 18 candidates contesting for the presidential slot.
Fourthly, Karzai backed by the US and other Western powers, is viewed by Afghanistan’s neighbors as a stabilizing force for Afghanistan and for its neighborhood. Pakistan and Iran, the two principal countries who suffered the fallout of Afghan turmoil and also got involved, at varying degrees, in Afghanistan’s anti-Soviet resistance have engaged with Karzai in Kabul. Under Karzai Pakistan-Afghan relations have vastly improved in the areas of trade, commerce and security cooperation.
Karzai needs both outside support and internal go-ahead to be a successful transition man for Afghanistan. Also to continue as president being elected is not sufficient. Karzai also needs to be lucky against the constant security threats he faces.
— Nasim Zehra is a fellow of the Harvard University Asia Center.
