When a national unity government in Israel is formed — and it appears that this will take just a matter of weeks, if not days — the fusion of Labor and Likud should increases the hope of a peace deal. Such a deal, in Labor’s view, will cover not just the pullout of Jewish settlers from Gaza but that the withdrawal will be the first step to a comprehensive peace.
That Likud decided to invite Labor is fortuitous for any future peace arrangement. Ariel Sharon had had no party majority for six months and looked like surviving for another six months without one. But after the government lost three coalition partners in disputes over disengagement and the budget, it found itself in control of just one-third of the Knesset and had to make a stark choice: Either allow Labor in, or hold early elections. Likud chose Labor — on condition that Sharon also invites Shas and United Torah Jerusalem, two ultraorthodox parties, as an important counterweight to any left-wing Labor influence.
Sharon’s decision to bring in Labor has not gone down well with all his party. While he regains control of Likud, many in the party oppose giving up land for nothing. They are not happy, but they can’t do much about it, seeing the weaker position they had been in. Opponents of disengagement had hoped to repeat the success of right-wing activists and settlers who persuaded thousands not to support the Gaza withdrawal. But now, to their dismay, there will be no referendum on the pullout or early elections. Which means they must now either continue to protest or reassess.
Likudniks who want to hear nothing about disengagement will continue to press for early elections. They may try to derail a crucial Cabinet vote on when to begin the actual evacuation of settlements in March. They might even resort to civil disobedience and more so, violence. That this might result is testimony to the major blow Likud has suffered. So significant was Sharon’s decision to tango with Labor that it needed a vote to revoke a ban issued in August on a coalition with Labor, the veto being part of a revolt against Sharon’s disengagement policy within the Central Committee and Likud’s parliamentary faction. But again, Sharon made it clear where the way ahead was: Since nobody can guarantee that Likud will return to power if there are early elections, then appealing for help from Labor was the next and only best thing to do.
Likud members have seen it Sharon’s way. Of the 3,000 members of Likud’s Central Committee, about 62 percent have voted in favor of letting Labor in for the expressed purpose of reaching a settlement. Labor supports disengagement from Gaza, but also hopes this can be turned from a unilateral move into an integral part of a new peace process. It also wants to put pressure on the government to follow the road map.
Palestinians fear Sharon will pull out of Gaza only to block progress on the wider peace process. Labor’s presence in Likud should help allay such apprehensions.
