The arguments about Turkish EU membership will continue for many years yet. Turkey’s application has been treated like that of no other country. In the past, when the EU agreed to accession talks, it was a signal that the country concerned had been accepted. All that remained was to decide the terms and the date on which that acceptance would be finalized. For Turkey however, it is clear that there is no inherent acceptance of the bid to join. All will depend on how negotiations, already being predicted to last ten years, will pan out.
Technically Brussels could argue that this has been true of all other past applicants. The truth is, however, that in Turkey’s case, this equivocation is very much to do with opposition to its membership. Many reasons are given for its “current” unsuitability — from its chaotic economy, distorted by government borrowing to fund long-failing nationalized industries, to its poor human rights record, its shaky legal system and its continued support for the Turkish Cyprus. Each of these objections is valid but none is insuperable. However, opponents rarely voice the one issue that, in their view, has no solution. It is that Turkey would be the first Muslim country to join what is currently a union of Christian states. The German, Austrian and French governments, despite loud protests to the contrary all reflect the visceral concerns of their citizens at the inclusion of a Muslim country in the EU.
Time and again, politicians have wondered aloud how acceptable would be the changes that Turkey will bring to the EU. This large and economically potent country could, it is feared, transform the union far from the vision of its founders. France and Germany in particular are concerned that their dominance, already eroded by the accession of ten new states this year, will be further undermined by the arrival of a vigorous developing country with a young and growing population of 70 million.
Interestingly however, few people have asked what changes the EU would bring to Turkey. Turkish businessmen may expect major new commercial opportunities; liberals look forward to a firmer rule of law and the government expects a tidal wave of EU investment, but as yet few Turks appear to be thinking about the major shifts and compromises that Union membership would involve.
Turkey is a land of rules which are occasionally enforced mercilessly but are generally broken. For instance, one reason for government poverty is that income and corporate tax avoidance is endemic. Many companies keep two sets of accounts, only one of them for the taxman. The cultural shock of the full panoply of EU rules and regulations descending upon the Turks will be considerable. After 23 years of EU membership, Greece is still having a hard time complying with much of Brussels legislation. In Turkey, there is likely to be alarm at the changes the EU will demand. If the dreamed of economic benefits do not flow rapidly right down through society, this alarm could change to anger and bitter reaction against belonging to a club that had admitted Turkey so reluctantly.
